Joe Fine

Commercial crypto lawyer │ Building a Bitcoin position from zero - process-first, evidence-based │ No predictions. Just the work.

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

I'm a commercial lawyer. I've never owned crypto.
I've decided to change that, but I'm going to do it properly and share my journey.
No price targets. No 100x calls. Just the process.
Follow if that's useful to you.

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

The interesting one is LTC — up nearly 16% while BTC pulled back.

Most advanced filing for the next crypto spot ETF after BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP. When the institutional unlock comes, smaller assets move faster.

Same thesis. Different asset. Same framework.

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

BTC at USD83,259. Down from USD87,250 earlier this week.

Options expiry tomorrow is pulling price toward max pain. The model: 65/100. Positive momentum. Watching.

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

Earlier I mentioned catching the altcoin wave. Here's what that looks like.

ETH, SOL, XRP, LINK, LTC - opened last week on the institutional ETF pipeline thesis. Portfolio up 15% despite this week's pullback.

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

Either market makers hunt the $84,500 longs first, so a brief dip, then squeeze into the shorts above.

Or buyers defend here and BTC grinds directly to $88,000-$90,000.

Not a prediction. Just watching $85,500 as the line in the sand.

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

Fear & Greed is now at 78 deep Greed territory.

The model treats that as a caution signal. Same as it did in August when BTC was at $80,000 and sentiment was at 73.

Also caught the altcoin wave last week. More on that soon.

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

Yom Kippur yesterday so I was offline... and when I got back, BTC at 85k+ - a great way to break the fast - 33% gain from where I bought.

The model is at 63/100 (still not saying accumulate). Mildly frustrating but helps to fight the FOMO.

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

What happened while I was offline:

BTC closed above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks. Trend-following algorithms triggered automatically. USD648m in short positions liquidated in hours.

The technical signal was real. The short squeeze amplified it.

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

@Sheldino_D What’s your thesis why they are going to strengthen?

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

I also made anevent trade this week - shorted gold into the FOMC, read Warsh's press conference in real time and closed profitable.

Getting better at this. Slowly.

Next catalyst: October 9 CPI. Then FOMC October 27-28.

The framework updates after each one.

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

CLARITY Act failed. Fed hiked 25bps (first time since 2023). Warsh: "Inflation too high and has been for too long."

BTC: $77,735. Still up 20% from where I bought.

The market absorbed both in 48 hours and barely flinched. That's not nothing.

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

My model dropped from 64 to 55 — higher real yields and ETF uncertainty post-CLARITY.

But 55 is still a Starter Position signal. The framework that told me to buy is reading current conditions as comparable to then.

More constructive than the headlines suggest.

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

@carlmoon How to trade given the timing difference though (Clarity Act vote today and FOMC on Wed)?

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

The part nobody tells you about building a disciplined framework:

You spend weeks watching events you correctly anticipated play out — and still can't act on them because the model says wait.

Thursday might change that. Or it might not. The framework decides. Not me.

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

BTC at $78,686. Sitting on a knife edge.

$78,000 below it: long liquidations waiting to cascade. $80,000 above it: shorts waiting to be squeezed.

Three events in six days decide which way it falls. I have opinions. The data doesn't care.

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

Thursday: CPI.
Monday-Tuesday: FOMC decision.
September hike probability has gone from 34% before Jackson Hole to 60% today. Warsh's speech did exactly what we said it would.

Model says hold. So I'm holding.

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

That gap closes on 16 September.

Until then I'm holding what I have, watching the data, updating the score after every catalyst.

Score: 64. Threshold: 70. Six points away.

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

The model has been at 64 for six days.

BTC swung from $77k to $81k and back. September hike probability jumped from 39% to 70%. Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole.

Score: unchanged

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

That's not a bug.

ETF flows swung wildly - +$242M, -$237M, +$101M in three sessions. Dollar, liquidity, on-chain data all shifted marginally. None enough to move the score.

The model reacts to what the Fed does. Not what markets expect it to do.

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

Score: 64/100. BTC at $77,747.

September 5: jobs report.
September 10: CPI.
September 15: CLARITY Act vote.
September 16: Fed decision.
Four catalysts in 11 days. The framework will update after each one.
Watching.

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

September. Historically crypto's worst month.

BTC just delivered its best monthly performance in over three years - 25% up in August. But the Fed is 66% likely to hike on September 16.

The model says hold. So I'm holding. But September has a track record.

[Joe Fine @Jozi_F]

Two things happened in the last couple of days:

Strategy bought $370 million of BTC last week (their first purchase in two months). The largest corporate holder just came back.

BTC held firm through US strikes on Iran. An event that historically triggers panic selling. It didn't.

That's institutional resilience. The model is capturing it.