Timm Erbach🦇🔊

Husband and dad, assisting firms with Treasury & Risk Management applications, deeply rooted in the crypto world.

[Liam @liam_xbt]

Virtual is selling $38m of their token.

Here's why and who it impacts:

Every Virtual coin starts with an LP paired with $VIRTUAL (eg, AIXBT/VIRTUAL).

The platform accumulated revenue in $VIRTUAL which they earned through trading fees.

But they can't just sell it outright or they risk creating FUD and nuking the ecosystem... because Virtual price would fall and bring the agents denominated in virtual with it.

So they need to do something with this money or they'll get slapped with a FAT tax bill on revenue which they can't use.

Buybacks and burns of ecosystem tokens are one way to do it.

Two cohorts of tokens benefit:

1. Tokens that generated a lot of fees relative to mcap

Since the buyback is determined by fees from trading volume, the tokens with high overall trading volume relative to mcap will have a larger proportionate stimmy.

Haven't dug into all the figures here bc i saw the news late... but seems like this has already played out with tokens like $MISATO pumping.

2. Tokens with majority of liq outside their virtual pair

Their denominator isn't impacted as as much while they still get the buyback stimmy.

eg, $AIXBT is effectively getting a $2.5m stimmy and isn't impacted much by virtual sell pressure because the majority of its liquidity is elsewhere.

Who loses:

1. Virtual holders

$38m sale is significant but there's more to this...

It's clear virtual's price was propped up through accumulating fees in virtual.

Fees were effectively a $38m sink but now they'll be active sell pressure from now on as they're converted to cBTC.

The ponzu flywheel that propelled $virtual just started spinning in reverse.

2. Tokens that only have a virtual LP and or little trading volume

They get a small stimulus and suffer from the virtual sell pressure.

New tokens lose disproportionately here as they've earned cumulative less fees.

My thoughts:

I'm confused why Virtual would do this instead of just burning the $VIRTUAL.

It seems misaligned with what's best for holders and the team as they're self inducing $38m in sell pressure.

The outcome is worse for the ecosystem too as some of the stimulus is sent to agents with external liquidity — effectively leaving the ecosystem.

I think transitioning to fees in cBTC is the right move but they should also cut fees substantially so there's less extraction from the ecosystem.

Lastly, they should normalize the fees relative to time the tokens have been live so new tokens and old tokens are on an equal playing field.

lmk your thoughts on this.

[CryptoQuant.com @cryptoquant_com]

Our Global Crypto Survey reveals key trends reshaping the crypto landscape.

Let’s dive in 👇🧵

[Ethan Mollick @emollick]

New randomized, controlled trial of students using GPT-4 as a tutor in Nigeria. 6 weeks of after-school AI tutoring = 2 years of typical learning gains, outperforming 80% of other educational interventions.

And it helped all students, especially girls who were initially behind

[Bullet @Bulletxyz]

1/ Hyperliquid’s success proves two things:

There’s strong demand for pro-level DeFi trading experiences.

DEXs now have the tech to truly compete with CEXs.

But right now Solana is falling behind. Here’s why & how we’re changing that 👇

[Devana 🇺🇦 @DevanaUkraine]

Politico: Russia’s campaign to destabilize Europe has been carefully calibrated to avoid provoking a collective response from NATO. Instead, the Kremlin appears to be gradually increasing the pressure to see what it can get away with. Russia is testing the limits of Article 5 to sow uncertainty, says Roderich Kiesewetter, a Bundestag member and former officer on the German Army General Staff.

[Bill Madden @maddenifico]

Speaking to Tim Miller, Sam Harris explains what happened to Elon Musk. 😳👇

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Japan and China are dumping US Treasuries:

In Q3 2024, Japan sold a net $61.9 billion of Treasuries, the most on record.

This was the second consecutive quarter of selling after $40.5 billion in Q2.

At the same time, China dumped $51.3 billion, the second largest amount ever recorded.

China has now sold Treasuries in 6 out of the last 7 quarters and its total holdings fell below $800 billion for the first time in 16 years.

2 of the world's biggest foreign holders of US government debt are selling like never before.

What's happening here?

[Jan Rosenow @janrosenow]

Pessimists sound clever.

Optimists change the world.

I love this depiction of the energy transition by RMI.

[Jan Rosenow @janrosenow]

Batteries are now playing a huge role in some energy systems around the world.

Look at California - not long ago you wouldn’t even be able to see the contribution from batteries. Few expected batteries to ever be able to compete.

Today instead of fossil fuel generation batteries discharge stored renewable electricity.

Be prepared for much more to come.

[Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣 @rahmstorf]

Die Energiewende ist weltweit schon weiter als viele denken.
Hier der Anteil der Erneuerbaren an der Stromerzeugung.
Deutschland ist hier kein Vorreiter und geht auch keinen Sonderweg.

[Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣 @rahmstorf]

44 scientists have issued a stark warning about the threat of a major ocean circulation change, causing a detrimental disruption of climate patterns lasting for centuries to come.
Check out this short video explaining what this is all about.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

You can't make this up:

The average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage is OFFICIALLY back above 7%.

Since the Fed issued a "surprise" 50 basis point rate cut on September 18th, rates have moved in a straight-line higher.

Did the Fed just break the market again?

(a thread)

[TheRealThelmaJohnson @TheRealThelmaJ1]

This is a crowd, Donald

[Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣 @rahmstorf]

What is a climate tipping point?

Here my 60-second explanation at the New York Times Climate Forward last week.

If you want to know more about the tipping point of the Atlantic Ocean circulation #AMOC, on which I've worked for over 30 years, watch this: https://t.co/13GjmmfK4v

[Timm Erbach🦇🔊 @Juhutuju]

@Finansnerden På Finansnerden finner man alt det vanlige folk trenger å vite om (pensjons)sparing. Jeg har jobbet meg gjennom innholdet de siste ukene og må si at du har gjort en fenomenal innsats! Tusen takk!

[Timm Erbach🦇🔊 @Juhutuju]

@Finansnerden Nyhetsbrevet ditt er helt topp, og det samme gjelder siden din https://t.co/W6BHAVtnmZ. Jeg hadde litt problemer med søkefunksjonen, som gir for mange irrelevante treff, men det er sikkert noe som ligger utenfor din kontroll å endre.

[Timm Erbach🦇🔊 @Juhutuju]

@Finansnerden Hva synes du om DNB SMB A?

[Timm Erbach🦇🔊 @Juhutuju]

@Finansnerden Da takker jeg hjertelig! Jeg har lest alt, og det er fantastisk hvor transparent du viser arbeidsprosessen din frem mot resultatene.

[Timm Erbach🦇🔊 @Juhutuju]

@Finansnerden Finansnerd, tusen takk for ditt store bidrag! Jeg har lært mye om det norske markedet. Kunne du tenkt deg å kaste litt mer lys over gode bransjefond man kan handle via Nordnet? Jeg synes det er ganske lett å finne gode teknologifond, men hva med andre sektorer?