Julian Dunn

[Jasper13 @Jasper13_01]

$PRD

Independent research note for today’s RNS.

#morocco 🇲🇦 #gas

@PredatorOilGas @CapitalPmh @TheMoneySponge @Mehdiboukhari @OGJOnline

[Jasper13 @Jasper13_01]

💰 $PRD | WHAT COULD MOU-6 SUCCESS ACTUALLY BE WORTH?

Here’s where I’m going to be very careful.

THESE ARE NOT PRICE TARGETS.

They are illustrative valuation scenarios based on what MOU-6 actually proves.

Using the current 904.4m shares:

🟢 COMMERCIAL MOU-6
Sustainable flow supporting CNG concept
➡️ 5.0–8.8p/share

🔵 STRONG APPRAISAL
Strong flow + pressure + effective pay
➡️ 7.7–14.9p/share

🔗 CONNECTED SCALE
Evidence materially supporting the wider stratigraphic interpretation
➡️ 14.9–24.9p/share

🌍 BASIN / STRATEGIC CASE
Connected scale + credible wider development/strategic process
➡️ 24.9–38.7p/share

👑 CONTROL CASE
Scale materially de-risked + deep-pocket buyer / competitive process
➡️ 38.7–60.8p+

Notice something?

THESE OUTCOMES DON’T HAPPEN BY ACCIDENT.

Each step requires MORE EVIDENCE.

And that’s exactly how I think MOU-6 should be valued.

Not:

❌ “It flowed X therefore PRD is worth Y.”

But:

FLOW
⬇️
APPRAISAL
⬇️
CONNECTED SCALE
⬇️
COMMERCIALITY
⬇️
STRATEGIC VALUE

📌 THE HIGHER THE VALUATION, THE MORE MOU-6 HAS TO PROVE.

That’s the risk/reward equation.

#PRD #MOU6 #Guercif #Morocco

⚠️ Illustrative analyst scenarios only — not PRD guidance, price targets or forecasts. Prospective resources are not reserves. Capital at risk.

@PredatorOilGas @GrahamHengland @Share_Talk @Blowster85

[Jasper13 @Jasper13_01]

🌙 $PRD | ONE THOUGHT FOR THE EVENING SCROLLERS…

After today’s four posts, I’ve been thinking about MOU-6 slightly differently.

Perhaps the most important thing MOU-6 could change isn’t the amount of gas underground.

It’s what can actually be PROVEN about it.

Think about the progression:

🪨 TODAY
Prospective resources.
Deliverability uncertainty.
Connectivity uncertainty.

⬇️

🔥 MOU-6

⬇️

💨 Commercial flow?

🔗 Connectivity?

📊 Better reservoir definition?

⬇️

🤝 DIFFERENT NEGOTIATING POSITION

That’s why today’s Romania angle matters too.

If specialised interpretation can improve understanding of thin-bed pay, and MOU-6 can demonstrate that some of that system actually flows commercially, the conversation potentially changes.

Not from:

“How much gas might be there?”

But towards:

“How much commercially recoverable value can be demonstrated — and who is best placed to develop it?”

And THAT is where today’s corporate scenarios become interesting:

🏗️ Develop
🤝 Farm-out / JV
💰 Partial monetisation
♟️ Strategic transaction

PRD currently retains 75%.

Which brings me back to management’s decision to reject significant pre-drill dilution after reassessing risk versus reward.

Maybe MOU-6 isn’t simply a drilling event.

MAYBE IT’S A REPRICING EVENT.

Because:

THE GAS DOESN’T HAVE TO CHANGE.

THE EVIDENCE DOES.

And if the evidence changes sufficiently…

what somebody is prepared to pay for it might change too.

🎯🇲🇦

#PRD #MOU6 #Guercif #Morocco

@PredatorOilGas @FraserLeclerc @JoshYoung @GrahamHengland @Share_Talk @Blowster85

⚠️ Strategic outcomes are illustrative only. No transaction or commercial outcome is guaranteed. Prospective resources are not reserves. Capital at risk.

[Jasper13 @Jasper13_01]

🧩 $PRD | WHAT IF THE LOGS ARE UNDER-CALLING GUERCIF?

This could be one of the more intriguing parts of the developing PRD story.

The “semi-conventional” thesis is fundamentally a resolution + completion challenge.

Why?

Guercif contains rapid alternations of thin sand and shale.

And conventional logging has a practical vertical resolution of around ~0.5m according to the Scorpion work.

So potentially:

THIN GAS-BEARING SANDS
⬇️
CONVENTIONAL LOG RESPONSE
⬇️
PAY MAY BE UNDERSTATED

That’s where more specialised interpretation becomes interesting:

🔸 Spectral gamma
🔸 FMI imaging
🔸 Advanced petrophysics
🔸 Formation pressure data

These tools could potentially identify lithology, gas saturation and connectivity that ordinary logs understate.

But here’s the critical caveat:

📌 MORE INTERPRETED PAY ≠ MORE COMMERCIAL GAS

Value is only created if that pay can ultimately be:

IDENTIFIED → COMPLETED → CLEANED UP → FLOWED

🔥 And that’s precisely why MOU-6 matters.

MOU-6 ISN’T JUST LOOKING FOR GAS.

IT’S TESTING WHETHER THE ROCK CAN DELIVER IT.

#PRD #MOU6 #Guercif #Morocco

⚠️ Geological interpretation is not proof of commerciality. Prospective resources are not reserves. Capital at risk.

@PredatorOilGas @FraserLeclerc @KQuick20704342 @Blowster85

[Jasper13 @Jasper13_01]

2️⃣ THE NUMBER THAT MATTERS FIRST

🔥 #PRD | FORGET 498.4 Bcf FOR A MOMENT…

Yes, you read that correctly.

The 498.4 Bcf stratigraphic upside concept could be highly significant.

But it’s NOT the number I’m most interested in first.

Before worrying about ultimate scale, MOU-6 needs to establish the fundamentals:

🔥 GAS
📈 PRESSURE
💨 MOBILITY
⏱️ SUSTAINED COMMERCIAL FLOW

Because there’s an enormous difference between:

GAS IN THE GROUND

and

GAS THAT CAN BE PRODUCED COMMERCIALLY.

That’s why commercial flow sits at the heart of my MOU-6 thesis.

If MOU-6 demonstrates commercially sustainable flow, an important threshold has potentially been crossed.

🔗 THEN connectivity becomes particularly interesting.

🚀 THEN evidence of connectivity could begin materially de-risking the 498.4 Bcf stratigraphic upside concept.

And THEN the question potentially becomes:

HOW BIG COULD THIS SYSTEM ACTUALLY BE?

So:

🚀 498.4 Bcf = STRATIGRAPHIC UPSIDE CONCEPT

🔥 COMMERCIAL FLOW = THE KEY

🔗 CONNECTIVITY = THE POTENTIAL MULTIPLIER

GEOLOGY CREATES THE RESOURCE.

FLOW CREATES THE COMMERCIAL CASE. 🇲🇦

#PRD #MOU6 #Guercif #Morocco

⚠️ Prospective resources are not reserves. No commercial outcome is guaranteed. Capital at risk.

@PredatorOilGas @FlagstaffIR @ONHYM_Official @Share_Talk @proactive_x @OilVoice @Blowster85 @Investopian @Darrenukdaytra1 @AM231982 @TopTradersADVFN @tozzer121

[Jasper13 @Jasper13_01]

#PRD

MOU-6 – Why I think the risk/reward has materially changed

I’ve spent considerable time reviewing MOU-6. For me, this is increasingly difficult to view as simply another exploration well.

🎯 1. MANAGEMENT’S DECISION

PRD retains 75% of Guercif.

Management subsequently stated significant pre-drill dilution was:

“commercially no longer attractive”

following its “new re-assessment of risk versus reward.”

That is a meaningful decision: retain more risk, but retain more potential upside.

🔬 2. WHY MY COMMERCIAL-FLOW ESTIMATE IS 60%

MOU-6 is ~600m from MOU-3, where we already have:

• 🔥 Significant gas influx whilst drilling
• 📈 122 psi estimated overpressure in the shallow A Sand
• 🔥 Repeated gas shows across multiple intervals
• 🧪 98.04–99.57% methane from seven isotube samples

Importantly, PRD’s published technical work assigns a 40–68% “chance of successful flow to surface” across five interpreted gas-bearing intervals.

My 60% probability of commercially sustainable flow is therefore NOT a PRD probability. It is my analyst estimate, sitting within that independently assessed flow-to-surface envelope, informed by the near-field location, existing gas evidence and purpose-designed MOU-6 programme.

There remains a significant difference between gas reaching surface and commercially sustainable flow — hence 60%, not 100%.

🚀 3. CONNECTIVITY = POTENTIAL MULTIPLIER

MOU-6 does not need to prove 498.4 Bcf to succeed.

Commercial flow alone could be significant.

But evidence supporting connectivity beyond the structural closure could materially de-risk the 498.4 Bcf stratigraphic upside concept.

♟️ 4. THEN THINK ABOUT THE 75%

FLOW → CONNECTIVITY → DE-RISKING → MONETISATION → STRATEGIC VALUE

Potential options then broaden:

🏗️ Develop | 🤝 Partner/farm-out | 💰 Divest

MOU-6 doesn’t have to prove everything. It just has to keep removing uncertainty.

RNS sources:

https://t.co/oh3UCa33sM

https://t.co/Ikqd2CuPae

[Jasper13 @Jasper13_01]

3️⃣ WHY 60%, NOT 100%?

📊 #PRD | I’M BULLISH ON MOU-6.

SO WHY IS MY COMMERCIAL-FLOW ESTIMATE 60% — NOT 100%?

Because conviction should never be confused with certainty.

The evidence we’ve examined gives me considerable confidence in:

🪨 Encountering reservoir
🔥 Encountering meaningful gas evidence
📊 Obtaining useful pressure / mobility information

But none of those automatically guarantees commercial deliverability.

There are still questions only MOU-6 can answer:

🪨 RESERVOIR QUALITY — thickness, porosity and quality may vary.

📈 PRESSURE & MOBILITY — reservoir performance ultimately influences deliverability.

⚙️ FORMATION DAMAGE — drilling and completion effects matter.

🔥 SUSTAINABLE FLOW — gas needs to flow at a commercially useful rate.

🔗 CONNECTIVITY — wider system extension still has to be demonstrated.

That’s why my analyst estimate is:

🎯 60% — COMMERCIALLY SUSTAINABLE FLOW

Importantly, PRD has published an independently assessed 40–68% “chance of successful flow to surface” across five separate intervals interpreted as gas-bearing.

My 60% is NOT a PRD probability. It is my own analyst estimate of commercially sustainable flow.

60% ISN’T CERTAINTY.

IT’S MY ASSESSMENT OF THE RISK/REWARD.

The evidence gets us to the well.

🔥 The drillbit gets the final vote.

#PRD #MOU6 #Guercif #Morocco

⚠️ Analyst estimates are my own, not PRD probabilities. Capital at risk.

@PredatorOilGas @FlagstaffIR @ONHYM_Official @Share_Talk @proactive_x @Blowster85 @AM231982 @Investopian @Darrenukdaytra1

[Jasper13 @Jasper13_01]

1️⃣ WHAT DOES SUCCESS LOOK LIKE?

🎯 #PRD | WHAT DOES SUCCESS ACTUALLY LOOK LIKE AT MOU-6?

Yesterday I set out why I believe MOU-6 presents an unusually interesting risk/reward equation.

Today, let’s move from:

THESIS ➡️ PROOF

Because MOU-6 isn’t simply SUCCESS or FAILURE.

There are several increasingly valuable questions the well can answer. 👇

🪨 1️⃣ RESERVOIR
Does MOU-6 encounter the target where expected?

🔥 2️⃣ GAS
Are meaningful gas shows / charge demonstrated?

📊 3️⃣ PRESSURE & MOBILITY
What does MDT tell us about reservoir quality and deliverability?

💰 4️⃣ COMMERCIAL FLOW
Can the reservoir sustain a commercially useful rate?

🔗 5️⃣ CONNECTIVITY
Does the evidence support extension beyond the structural closure?

Here’s the important bit:

MOU-6 DOESN’T HAVE TO PROVE EVERYTHING TO ADD VALUE.

Every successful step potentially removes another layer of uncertainty.

And every layer removed potentially strengthens the Guercif investment case.

RESERVOIR → GAS → PRESSURE/MOBILITY → COMMERCIAL FLOW → CONNECTIVITY

🎯 MOU-6 JUST HAS TO KEEP REMOVING UNCERTAINTY. 🇲🇦

#PRD #MOU6 #Guercif #Morocco

⚠️ Prospective resources are not reserves. Capital at risk.

@PredatorOilGas @FlagstaffIR @ONHYM_Official @Share_Talk @proactive_x @OilVoice @AM231982 @Blowster85 @Investopian @Darrenukdaytra1 @TopTradersADVFN @tozzer121

[Jasper13 @Jasper13_01]

♟️ #PRD — THE ENDGAME

Let’s bring today’s MOU-6 thread full circle.

This morning we started with PRD’s 11 June statement:

Pre-drill partnering involving significant equity dilution was considered “commercially no longer attractive” following its reassessment of risk versus reward.

Now consider the other side of that decision.

PRD retains a 75% interest in Guercif. 🇲🇦

What happens to the strategic value of that interest IF MOU-6 establishes:

🔥 Commercial flow
🔗 Evidence supporting connectivity
🧪 Comparable methane-rich gas quality
💰 A credible route towards monetisation

Potentially, PRD’s strategic options broaden considerably:

🏗️ DEVELOP
Progress the Moroccan gas opportunity.

🤝 PARTNER / FARM-OUT
Bring in capital and/or industry participation after further de-risking.

💰 DIVEST
Monetise the asset at a different point in the value cycle.

⚠️ These are strategic possibilities — NOT a claim that a transaction or buyer currently exists.

But that’s the question I think MOU-6 could ultimately force the market to consider:

If PRD decided significant dilution BEFORE MOU-6 was no longer commercially attractive…

what could that retained 75% interest be worth AFTER a successful MOU-6? 👀

One well could potentially change more than the geological story.

IT COULD CHANGE THE STRATEGIC ENDGAME. ♟️🇲🇦

ONE DECISION.
ONE WELL.
MULTIPLE WAYS TO WIN.

#PRD #MOU6 #Guercif #Morocco

@PredatorOilGas @FlagstaffIR @ONHYM_Official @proactive_x @Share_Talk @OilVoice @ZaksTradersCafe @ABMckinley @Blowster85 @TopTradersADVFN @tozzer121 @Investopian @Darrenukdaytra1 @AM231982

[Jasper13 @Jasper13_01]

🚀 #PRD — NOW FOR THE UPSIDE

This is where the MOU-6 risk/reward equation gets really interesting.

MOU-6 does NOT need to prove 498.4 Bcf to succeed.

Let me repeat that.

498.4 Bcf is NOT my base case for MOU-6 success.

The potentially transformational question is whether MOU-6 provides evidence supporting stratigraphic extension beyond the structural closure. 👀

Because if commercial flow is established AND the wider connectivity concept gains support…

the potential scale of the opportunity changes.

⭐ 498.4 Bcf STRATIGRAPHIC UPSIDE CONCEPT

And I deliberately risk that outcome much harder:

🔥 Meaningful gas evidence — 90%
💰 Commercially sustainable flow — 60%
🔗 Extension beyond structural closure supported — 42.5%
⭐ 498.4 Bcf concept materially de-risked — 40%

⚠️ Again: MY ANALYST ESTIMATES — NOT PRD PROBABILITIES.

That’s the asymmetry I see in MOU-6.

It doesn’t need the transformational outcome to be a successful well.

But if it establishes commercial flow AND provides evidence supporting stratigraphic connectivity…

the conversation potentially changes from:

“DOES GUERCIF WORK?”

to:

“HOW BIG COULD THIS SYSTEM BE?” 🔥🇲🇦

And THAT is where the risk/reward equation becomes very interesting.

@PredatorOilGas @FlagstaffIR @ONHYM_Official @Blowster85 @TopTradersADVFN @tozzer121 @Investopian @Darrenukdaytra1 @Share_Talk @proactive_x @OilVoice @AM231982 @ABMckinley

#PRD #MOU6 #Guercif #Morocco

[Jasper13 @Jasper13_01]

☀️ #PRD — NOW LOOK AT THE DATA

Why do I believe MOU-6 has a materially different risk profile to a conventional exploration well?

Because MOU-6 isn’t starting at zero. 👇

At MOU-3:

🔥 Significant gas influx while drilling
📈 122 psi estimated overpressure in the shallow gas sand
🟢 Repeated gas shows across multiple intervals
🧪 98.04–99.57% methane in 7 MOU-3 isotube samples
📍 MOU-6 planned only ~600m from MOU-3
🎯 Purpose-designed drilling programme

My probability framework therefore puts:

🟢 95% — target reservoir encountered
🟢 90% — meaningful gas evidence
🟢 78% — useful MDT pressure/mobility data
🟡 60% — commercially sustainable flow

These are MY ANALYST ESTIMATES — not PRD probabilities.

And that’s the key distinction.

❌ The question isn’t simply:

“IS THERE GAS?”

🎯 The big question MOU-6 is designed to answer is:

“CAN IT FLOW COMMERCIALLY?”

If the answer is YES, the story moves to another level. 🚀🇲🇦

@PredatorOilGas @FlagstaffIR @ONHYM_Official @Blowster85 @TopTradersADVFN @Investopian @Darrenukdaytra1 @Share_Talk @proactive_x @OilVoice @ABMckinley @AM231982 @tozzer121

#PRD #MOU6 #Guercif #Morocco

[Jasper13 @Jasper13_01]

⏰ | #PRD — RISK vs REWARD

There is one sentence from PRD’s 11 June RNS that I think deserves far more attention as MOU-6 spud approaches. 👇

“Finalising partnering relationships pre-drill that involve significant equity dilution in the MOU-6 project is commercially no longer attractive due to the Company’s new re-assessment of risk versus reward.”

Read that again. 👀

PRD had been considering pre-drill partnering involving significant MOU-6 equity dilution — but concluded that finalising such arrangements was “commercially no longer attractive.”

Why? 🤔

Because PRD says its assessment of RISK vs REWARD had changed. 🎯

PRD retains a 75% interest in Guercif.

And now the physical preparations for MOU-6 are taking shape. 🇲🇦🛢️

So this morning I’m asking one simple question:

WHAT CHANGED THE RISK/REWARD EQUATION?

Over the course of today, I’ll set out why I believe the public evidence matters:

🔬 The drilling evidence
🎯 The probability framework
🚀 The stratigraphic upside
♟️ The strategic optionality

RISK ➡️ MOU-6 ➡️REWARD

This could be a pivotal week.

@PredatorOilGas @FlagstaffIR @ONHYM_Official @Blowster85 @TopTradersADVFN @Investopian @Darrenukdaytra1 @Share_Talk @proactive_x @OilVoice @ABMckinley @AM231982 @tozzer121

#PRD #MOU6 #Guercif #Morocco

[Julian Dunn @JulianCliveDunn]

@SW_Help accidentally left bag on a SWR train going to Portsmouth Harbour 2 weeks ago. Logged as requested by SWR customer services on @missingx.com. No way to talk to a human about this with https://t.co/GVWO0UdxKe but we know the bag is still at PHStn as tagged. Frustrating!!

[Julian Dunn @JulianCliveDunn]

@seraphim_space Great news indeed.

[Julian Dunn @JulianCliveDunn]

@SpaceNews_Inc Great news Team AscendArc.

[Julian Dunn @JulianCliveDunn]

@KQuick20704342 Thanks, Great work Keith

[Julian Dunn @JulianCliveDunn]

@lonny1971 Hey Lonny would I be correct in saying the Jacobin-1 location is show in this sat photo area marked in Red?

[Julian Dunn @JulianCliveDunn]

@GrahamHengland #PRD the fuse has been lit with this RNS the share price will only go up now.

[Julian Dunn @JulianCliveDunn]

@GrahamHengland https://t.co/VOydIgpem5

[Julian Dunn @JulianCliveDunn]

London South East | The UK's favourite investor portal. https://t.co/BRpIvegVhc