Julien Garran

[Julien Garran @JulienGarran]

@edzitron Ed - my work from a few months ago suggested US$6.50ish per hour was breakeven for a neocloud. And that assumes that publicly traded GPU rentals represent Hyperscalers’ rental costs, which they don’t, due to discounts for volume and time of rental. I’ll revisit and revert. J

[Julien Garran @JulienGarran]

@edzitron Nice work Ed, that is very clever. PS - have you seen the stuff about how the Mag7 are accounting for stock distributions when they buy AI talent, ie not options but share distributions. Give them at 30, vest at 90 then buyback to avoid dilution. Cashflow massively overstated. J

[Julien Garran @JulienGarran]

@SketchesbyBoze Hi Boze, early nominations for ‘word of the year’; ‘dandle’, ‘palimpsest’ and ‘beeswing’. All from ‘The return of Sherlock Holmes’. J

[Julien Garran @JulienGarran]

@RealJimChanos @YouTube @SpaceX Are you sure this isn’t a deepfake AI generated video? The contents may or may not be correct, but I’m suspicious about its origin.

[Julien Garran @JulienGarran]

@edzitron They’ve been charging US$3.79 since July, I have the screenshots, less if you rent for longer. I estimate they lose 25% on the cost of debt buying and renting Blackwells, assuming a 2.5 year economic life and assuming the price doesn’t fall.

[Julien Garran @JulienGarran]

@alexisxrivas @VladTheInflator @coverbuild Well, that’s luxury. It took us three years to get permission for a 30% extension in the New Forest in Britain, £28k, with minor changes we’d have agreed on the first day. My take after three years; it is the erosion of private property rights, and the erosion of civilisation. J

[Julien Garran @JulienGarran]

@wesbury Stop forwarding things behind paywalls. Either do your own work or reference the public domain.

[Julien Garran @JulienGarran]

@Johncomiskey77 Hi, my understanding is that it is corporates filing late for reclaiming from paying workers furlough money, and the government taking its sweet time sending the money over.

[Julien Garran @JulienGarran]

@chsmrrll What are you talking about, in English

[Julien Garran @JulienGarran]

@AnnaEconomist Are you sure this isn’t AI generated and therefore worthless. I love your work, but I think this is fake.

[Julien Garran @JulienGarran]

@Dr_Gingerballs I reckon the price to rent Blackwell GPUs is now the most important signal in global macro. In the meantime, whatever Super Micro does re hiring auditors over the next few days, if you were a neocloud creditor, would you lend into this ecosystem?

[Julien Garran @JulienGarran]

@Dr_Gingerballs Lambda is offering $1.89/hr on its website for H100s, and you could likely get it cheaper. . If we reckon Blackwell GPUs need to make their money back in 18 months to get funding, with an all in installation of US$65k or so per GPU, they will need to be rented out at US$5/hr min.

[Julien Garran @JulienGarran]

@ericweinstein Hi Eric - I love libraries. But I love them more when I can walk into them and read books. I couldn’t there, or in Oxford where I wasn’t working but not studying. So yes, that is beautiful, but unaccessible. I prefer the great bookshops. Daunt’s in Marylebone.

[Julien Garran @JulienGarran]

@PhilosophyTube @Dr_Gingerballs Great - I asked ChatGPT ‘Name seven taco ingredients that end with ‘pe’. Here was the answer;
1. Guacamole
2. Salsa
3. Jalapeño
4. Sour cream
5. Crema (Mexican sour cream)
6. Chipotle
7. Queso (cheese)

[Julien Garran @JulienGarran]

@concodanomics But when excess reserves run out a system level, which now looks likely in Q4, then you have a problem. It will force the regional banks to run off their loan books aggressively.

[Julien Garran @JulienGarran]

@concodanomics No, if you add deposits, bank liabilities, and reserves, bank assets, you are double counting.

[Julien Garran @JulienGarran]

@burrytracker just fyi, the consumer balances numbers you quote are way out of date, as they are from a 2019 survey. There is, according to an NY Fed paper published in November, around US$1.25trn of additional excess savings in the system as of December 2022.

[Julien Garran @JulienGarran]

@KansasCityFed Natural gas prices have gone down, massively, what are you talking about?

[Julien Garran @JulienGarran]

@stlouisfed Stop tweeting the same thing over and over and over again

[Julien Garran @JulienGarran]

@paulmotty I don’t believe for a minute that most people come to Britain to commit crime. But there is a very large incentive to come to Britain to claim benefits and receive State services. And for that, you have to register.