JuliusXXVI

Macroeconomics/geopolitics

[JuliusXXVI @JuliusXXVI]

@philippilk EU is in a hurry to rush in the programmable digital sh#t euro enabling stealing of private citizen assets, because they know their reliance on USD will cause the current euro system to melt down pretty soon.

[JuliusXXVI @JuliusXXVI]

@TicTocTick The short end yield won't go significantly higher from here. Better than $SGOV is dipping in $TLT, maybe 1/3 now, the rest 2/3s over next 3 months or so. $TLT has been building a base around $85 since Sept '23, that's soon exceeding 3 year base. Could go to $130 by EoY '27

[JuliusXXVI @JuliusXXVI]

@Kacper_PK_CH It could cut both ways and makes sense if they expect low inflation/deflation ahead. But the gains so far are built largely out of inflation, even if it's the official 2-3% CPI. For a five year holding it could add 13% to the cost basis. For 10 years 28%. So meaningful.

[JuliusXXVI @JuliusXXVI]

@utopia_escape @DonMiami3 Yup, one would need to build a production-cost curve to truly understand what price levels are sustainable and filter out the noise. But IMO the price WTI printed at end of June, $68 could be the new bottom. Maybe people like @NorthstarCharts who call $130 in few years are right

[JuliusXXVI @JuliusXXVI]

@utopia_escape @DonMiami3 Yes and SPR and other reserves need to be filled from a low level, probably driving the next leg higher.

[JuliusXXVI @JuliusXXVI]

@goldseek Another point is you need to see pension fund allocation above 6% vs. current 1-1.5% before you can talk about potential overheating. That's still another $2-3T inflow waiting to happen.

[JuliusXXVI @JuliusXXVI]

@Kacper_PK_CH The bottom line is if you find things with sustainable moat, revenue growth, stable operating margins/ROC it will be a decent compounder you don't need to sell. Just timing the buy at a low point of its own cycle.

[JuliusXXVI @JuliusXXVI]

@investinguab Pressure for YCC will just increase, PMs know it.

[JuliusXXVI @JuliusXXVI]

@GoldForecast Looks like $STGO.to is making a comeback from the dead. ATO 2 will make it the best asset ever.

[JuliusXXVI @JuliusXXVI]

@investinguab $USO could be trading at range $80-130 several years. Long term higher? Driven by a few factors - China has large stockpiles and convenience when to buy, 1.4B barrels with a deficit of 11MBPD it can sustain for 127 days. If some oil keeps leaking through strait it will keep a lid

[JuliusXXVI @JuliusXXVI]

@GoldForecast It's almost a certainty real yields will mean revert back toward 1% or so soon. Hyper-financialized economy and 80-200% debt/GDP ratios can't survive them being too high, especially historically high.

[JuliusXXVI @JuliusXXVI]

@BULLReturns Nominal capacity will be 2000tpd mill. With conservative to base case resource grades 2.5-5g/t production, 235 day/year production, production will be 37-74koz/year. $2000-2500 margin per ounce operating profit between $74-185 million USD, will probably settle somewhere in middle

[JuliusXXVI @JuliusXXVI]

@GoldForecast Daily cycle/momentum put in the fourth higher higher low since early June.

[JuliusXXVI @JuliusXXVI]

@Nostre_damus In reality the data absolutely sucks.

[JuliusXXVI @JuliusXXVI]

@themarketsniper PMs forming triple bottom since late June and positive divergence on daily chart getting stronger. $GLD tried to break $365 three times. Platinum seems to be front running other metals.

[JuliusXXVI @JuliusXXVI]

@utopia_escape PMs love a steepening yield curve which the fed is now causing. There won't be a hike in september either, the mostly oil driven inflation is gonna be sticky while consumer data gets worse. Real yields will be falling.

[JuliusXXVI @JuliusXXVI]

@GoldForecast Oil stabilizing/grinding higher is bullish for silver and other metals. AISC goes up and its a suppliers market. Electrification applications gain ground. Real yield mechanically capped due to fiscal constraints.

[JuliusXXVI @JuliusXXVI]

@Kacper_PK_CH Valterra Platinum has somewhat lower AISC/costs, it's profitable/positive CF every past year but $SBSW could rip more in a sustainable PGM turn. Yes but they seem to be getting close to the bottom. The sticky oil driven inflation and peak Fed hawkishness just needs to play out.

[JuliusXXVI @JuliusXXVI]

@LukeyTrags Tech service/consulting is extremely oversold, undervalued and getting a bid too like $ACN and related cos. They actually have a chart that could produce some very nice gains.

[JuliusXXVI @JuliusXXVI]

@ekwufinance Yet another lesson that narratives don't matter to price action. Narratives always follow and are made to fit the already occurred price action.