Justin M.

Jus M. Germany

[Finsee @Finsee_main]

$PERI Q1 2026 earnings: Growth Engines Mask a Core Profitability Crisis

Perion’s Q1 2026 highlights a glaring disconnect between AI product adoption and bottom-line reality. While management celebrated triple-digit growth in its Outmax AI Agent and strong gains in Connected TV (CTV), total revenue decelerated to a near-standstill at 1% YoY ($90.4M). More alarmingly, profitability collapsed: Adjusted EBITDA plummeted 75% to just $0.5M, squeezing margins to a microscopic 1%. To achieve its reiterated full-year guidance, Perion must execute a massive, high-risk operational turnaround in the next three quarters. Despite the cash generation strain, the company aggressively bought back $24.1M in stock.

Full article with charts - link in bio

🐂 𝐁𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞
• 𝐒𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡 𝐁𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐝 — After suffering brutal double-digit declines throughout early 2025 due to Microsoft Bing changes, Search Advertising reversed course, growing 21% YoY to $23.7M.
• 𝐄𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐒𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐑𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐝𝐥𝐲 — The strategic pivot to new media is working at the top line. CTV spend surged 68% and DOOH grew 29% YoY, proving Perion is successfully capturing high-growth ad budgets.

🐻 𝐁𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞
• 𝐒𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 — Adjusted EBITDA dropped 75% YoY to $0.5M. A 1% margin leaves no room for error and completely contradicts the narrative of an AI-driven, highly efficient platform.
• 𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐋𝐨𝐨𝐤𝐬 𝐔𝐧𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜 — Reiterating $50-$54M in FY26 EBITDA after delivering just $0.5M in Q1 implies the company must average ~$17M per quarter for the rest of the year—a steep, high-risk ramp.

⚖️ 𝐕𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭: 🔴
Bearish. AI buzzwords cannot hide a core business that just reported a 4% decline in its main segment and a near-total wipeout of its operating margin. The steep back-half acceleration required to meet guidance creates immense execution risk.

𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐬

🔴🔴 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐩𝐬𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐀𝐈 𝐍𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 [NEW]
Management's claim that AI is streamlining operations and driving efficiency is contradicted by the Q1 bottom line. Adjusted EBITDA collapsed 75% YoY. Margins reversed violently from 18% in 25Q4 down to 1% in 26Q1. The $10.0M GAAP net loss further underscores that the cost of supporting these new growth engines is currently destroying enterprise profitability.

🔴 𝐋𝐞𝐠𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐖𝐞𝐛 𝐁𝐥𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐄𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐆𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬
A massive red flag: Management heavily promoted CTV spend growing 68% and Outmax AI spend skyrocketing 316%. Yet, the total Advertising Solutions segment shrank 4% YoY. This data point proves that the unmentioned legacy Web advertising business is hemorrhaging revenue fast enough to completely wipe out the gains from Perion's highest-growth products.

🟢🟢 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐦𝐚𝐱 𝐀𝐈 𝐀𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐨𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐒𝐤𝐲𝐫𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 [NEW]
Outmax AI is demonstrating exceptional market fit. Spend tied to this execution agent accelerated to 316% YoY growth. The technology has now been expanded into social media via a new TikTok integration and adopted by major telecom player Bouygues Telecom, establishing a clear path for future performance-based revenue.

🟢 𝐒𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡 𝐒𝐞𝐠𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧
Reversing its previous freefall, the Search Advertising segment grew 21% YoY to $23.7M. After the severe structural hit from Microsoft Bing changes in 2024/2025, this segment has finally established a stable floor and returned to growth, acting as a vital stabilizer while Ad Solutions struggles.

🟢 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡-𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦
CTV (+68% YoY), Digital Out-of-Home (+29% YoY), and Retail Media (+27% YoY) all posted strong double-digit growth. These channels are consistently outpacing the broader digital advertising market, validating Perion's strategic acquisition history and focus on modern CMO budgets.

⚪ 𝐀𝐠𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐁𝐮𝐲𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐃𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐋𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐲 [NEW]
Despite a massive drop in profitability, Perion aggressively repurchased 2.5 million shares for $24.1 million in Q1. Because the business only generated $6.7 million in operating cash flow, this buyback activity was funded straight from the balance sheet, dropping total net cash and equivalents to $293.0M from $312.9M just three months ago.

🔴 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐐𝟐-𝐐𝟒 𝐑𝐚𝐦𝐩 𝐑𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐝 [NEW]
By reiterating full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $50-$54M after generating just $0.5M in Q1, management is committing to an extremely back-end loaded year. The company must generate roughly $17M in EBITDA per quarter for the remainder of 2026. Given the current 1% margin trajectory, this represents a severe execution risk.

𝐎𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐊𝐏𝐈𝐬

𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐞𝐱-𝐓𝐀𝐂 (𝟐𝟔𝐐𝟏): $39.7 million
Stable. Flat YoY compared to Q1 2025. Margin remained steady at 44% of total revenue. While total revenue was technically up 1%, higher Traffic Acquisition Costs (TAC) of $50.7M (56% of revenue) ate up the incremental top-line gains.

𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐰 (𝟐𝟔𝐐𝟏): $6.7 million
Reversing. A notable improvement from the $7.1 million cash burn reported in 26Q1. However, at just $6.7M, it is insufficient to organically fund the company's $24M+ quarterly share repurchase appetite.

𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞

𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐞𝐱-𝐓𝐀𝐂: $215 - $235 million
Accelerating. Reiterated guidance implies a full-year growth acceleration. Compared to FY25 actuals ($203.4M), the midpoint of $225M implies roughly 11% YoY growth. With Q1 coming in flat at $39.7M, the remaining quarters must accelerate significantly to hit the target.

𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 𝐀𝐝𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐄𝐁𝐈𝐓𝐃𝐀: $50 - $54 million
Accelerating. Reiterated from prior quarter. The midpoint ($52M) implies 15% YoY growth over FY25's $45.2M. Given the $0.5M print in Q1, achieving this requires a near-miraculous margin recovery starting immediately.

𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐐𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬

𝐁𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐆𝐚𝐩
You printed $0.5M in Adjusted EBITDA this quarter but reiterated a $52M midpoint for the year. Walk us through the specific cost cuts or margin mix shifts that will magically generate $17M per quarter for the rest of 2026.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐇𝐢𝐝𝐝𝐞𝐧 𝐖𝐞𝐛 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧
CTV grew 68% and DOOH grew 29%, but total Advertising Solutions shrank 4%. Exactly how fast is the legacy Web display business declining, and when do you expect it to bottom out so it stops erasing your high-growth gains?

𝐁𝐮𝐲𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤 𝐒𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲
You spent $24M on buybacks while generating less than $7M in operating cash flow. How long are you willing to drain the balance sheet to support the stock if the underlying EBITDA margin remains near 1%?

[The Long Investor @TheLongInvest]

$COIN has pulled back from $443 to $138
$HOOD has pulled back from $153 to $63
$ORCL has pulled back from $345 $136
$MSTR has pulled back from $543 to $105
$ETH has pulled back from $4956 to $1795
$NOW has pulled back from $239 to $98
$SOFI has pulled back from $32 to $15
$HIMS has pulled back from $72 to $13
$NKE has pulled back from $179 to $44
$NVO has pulled back from $148 to $36
$UNH has pulled back from $632 to $234
$IREN has pulled back from $76 to $30
$TGT has pulled back from $269 to $83
$EL has pulled back from $373 to $69
$LULU has pulled back from $516 to $143

THERE IS ZERO REASON TO CHASE ANYTHING RIGHT NOW WHEN YOU HAVE SECTOR LEADERS OFFERING THIS MUCH VALUE

Arguably all of these positions have COMPLETED their ABC correction, they have all but crashed and now their risk is greatly reduced and have not been moving with the market

$JD, $BABA, $BIDU, $OSCR, $SE, $GRAB are note worthy adds

We are spoilt for choice right now.

[Audit The Herd @AuditTheHerd]

With respect to the $HIMS community, I've been following the company for years, longer than a lot of folks here (see below for proof).

A few big decisions over the past year have raised real red flags for me, especially the Novo Nordisk partnership blowing up so quickly and the ongoing reliance on compounding GLP-1s.

The Novo deal was announced in April 2025 as this big credibility win, branded Wegovy on the platform, better access, all that. Then just two months later in June, Novo pulled the plug, accusing Hims of illegal mass compounding (calling compounded versions "knockoffs" under the personalization label), deceptive marketing, and putting patient safety at risk with potentially sketchy ingredients. Hims obviously fought back, saying Novo was just trying to lock patients into branded stuff and limit clinician choices. Either way, a lot of trust was lost for me then,

On top of that, the FDA had already ended the semaglutide shortage earlier in 2025 (around Feb), which basically took away the main legal cover for large scale compounding. Hims kept pushing personalized doses and formulations, but that invited more regulatory heat, potential lawsuits, and tougher competition once branded supply caught up.

Beyond the GLP-1 mess, there are other execution concerns piling up:

- The push into peptides (with the California facility acquisition back in Feb 2025 and talk of longevity offerings rolling out in) but there's still a real lack of clarity on what exactly they'll offer, how regulated/safe it'll be post FDA scrutiny on compounding, and when we'll see meaningful revenue from it.

- The lab testing expansion (Labs launch in late 2025, plus acquisitions like Trybe Labs and the recent YourBio deal ) shows early feedback with rollout issues that point to blood testing being slower than expected, delays in results, appointment wait times at partner sites like Quest, and questions about scaling at home draws without contamination risks. It's promising for personalization, but execution has felt clunky so far.

- And overall, the string of acquisitions (peptide facility, at home lab stuff, ZAVA for Europe, YourBio just recently) is aggressive, but it starts to look like spreading too thin without enough concentration. Each one adds complexity, integration risks, and capital burn in the near term, while core areas like subscriber retention and weight loss margins are still under pressure.

These are real issues….lost pharma credibility, questions about how sustainable the compounding/peptides model is long term, margin pressure from personalization efforts, execution hiccups in new verticals, and a lot of uncertainty hanging over the obesity/longevity verticals that drove so much of the recent hype.

The conversation around $HIMS has gotten pretty one sided in a lot of places. It's turned into this super bullish echo chamber where balanced takes or legit concerns get shouted down fast.

I'm not here to bash the company. I might end up buying back in at some point. I just think we need more straight talk about the risks alongside the upside.

I see way too many $100+ and $0 PTs on here. A little bit of balance is needed.

I will always audit the herd, even if im in that herd.

[Justin M. @Juspm97]

@ItsAnonApe @grok Lets see...

[Justin M. @Juspm97]

@CryptoGFishere done

[Daniel Carballo @dcarballoAI]

$HIMS by 2030

Vertical infrastructure integration in Europe and America.

MedMatch AI is better that any human doctor.

Peptides allows preventive cost effective medicine at scale.

Whoop like product made by HIMS monitor your health 24/7 and its AI order what you need that week under your HIMS subscription.

+ There is a high chance public healthcare collapse and prívate providers zill take their place.

+ The ageing population megatrend.

All together creates an asymmetric opportunity that could take HIMS to 2,000$ by 2030.

[Dr. Tomislav Marinovic @DrTomsLens]

$HIMS: The “1995 Amazon” Setup in Personalized Medicine

Picture this: It’s 1995. Jeff Bezos is running a tiny online bookstore out of his garage. The website is basic, the inventory is limited, and the world is still figuring out this strange new thing called the internet.

Then, in the first six months, an order comes in… from Bulgaria.

Think about that for a second.

International shipping? Barely existed. Returns policy? Nonexistent. Payment processing across borders? A nightmare. Logistics for delivering a book halfway around the world? Completely uncharted territory.

To the skeptics, the bears, this was proof it would never work. “How can you possibly scale something this messy? Customers will get frustrated. Costs will explode. This whole online retail idea is doomed.”

But the bulls saw something different. They saw a visionary founder who wasn’t afraid of the chaos.

They bet on Bezos’ relentless focus: he would figure it out. One problem at a time. One innovation at a time.

And he did. What started as a fragile, makeshift operation slowly transformed into the most customer-obsessed company on Earth.

Fast forward to today, that same reflexive “this will never work” skepticism is still playing out with $HIMS and the rise of truly personalized medicine.

The infrastructure isn’t fully “ready” yet. Regulations around compounding are tightening. Supply chains face increased scrutiny. Scaling telehealth while maintaining quality and compliance feels impossibly complex.

The bears are loud: GLP-1 headwinds, regulatory bills, competition from Big Pharma… it’s all too messy.

But the bulls? We’re looking at a founder who has already proven he can navigate chaos.

We’re seeing a platform that’s quietly and aggressively building the future of healthcare: treatments tailored to your biology, your hormones, your lifestyle, your goals.

Delivered discreetly, affordably, at scale, now with AI-driven personalization, comprehensive hormone care, and expansions into new markets like the UK and soon Canada.

Amazon did not need perfect logistics to start. It needed real demand, fast iteration, and customer obsession.

Same with $HIMS: it does not need a perfect regulatory environment today. It needs real demand, time, fast iteration, and a team focused on patients as healthcare shifts toward personalized and preventive care.

In hindsight, everyone will wonder how they missed it.

Not investment advice. Always DYOR.

[Justin M. @Juspm97]

@crypto_pump00 bc1qxej5z5zwe6za9ps9wttgenc6l5uhqt75xmhrgx

[Justin M. @Juspm97]

@Bitcoinblacck bc1qxej5z5zwe6za9ps9wttgenc6l5uhqt75xmhrgx

[Justin M. @Juspm97]

@OptionsBuffett Lets see...

[Justin M. @Juspm97]

@daumenxyz Nice!

[Justin M. @Juspm97]

@StockOptions888 Thanks

[SniperAlert @StockOptions888]

Sending $2495 of todays $KVUE profits to someone who likes this tweet 🇺🇸

Turn my notifications on 🔔

(Must be following to DM) $SPY $SPX

[Justin M. @Juspm97]

@StockOptions888 $BTU

[Justin M. @Juspm97]

@StockOptions888 ...that would be awesome

[BagelC47 @BagelC47]

Nebius and ClickHouse: Parallel Infrastructure Giants for the AI Era $NBIS

The rise of artificial intelligence has made one truth unmistakable: every breakthrough rests on infrastructure. Compute and data are the twin rails that power modern AI, and two companies born from the same Yandex DNA—Nebius and ClickHouse—illustrate how world-class engineering talent can build parallel, category-defining infra providers. Though they solve different problems in the stack, they share an origin in open-source culture, ecosystem-driven growth, and the ambition to become foundational platforms.

Nebius: Compute Infrastructure for AI

Nebius is an AI-first cloud, purpose-built to deliver GPU clusters for training and inference. In a market where demand for compute has exploded, Nebius is scaling toward 1 GW of contracted power by 2026, offering customers high-performance clusters optimized for both training frontier models and running inference at scale.

Its value proposition is straightforward: AI teams need massive, cost-effective, high-performance compute, and Nebius provides it. By building its own orchestration layer, networking stack, and Slurm-based scheduling, Nebius behaves less like a traditional cloud provider and more like a bespoke AI infra company. Startups like HeyGen and Photoroom, and enterprises like Cloudflare and Shopify, already depend on Nebius for mission-critical workloads.

ClickHouse: Data Infrastructure for AI

ClickHouse, by contrast, operates on the data side of the stack. It is an open-source columnar database designed for real-time analytics and vector search—the kinds of workloads that feed, monitor, and optimize AI systems.

In just one year, ClickHouse grew from $15 million in revenue (2024) to a $96 million run rate (2025), with customers doubling from 1,000 to 2,000. Its cloud service has expanded 300% year over year, and it counts Anthropic, Tesla, Mercado Libre, and other AI-first companies among its customers.

The attraction is speed: ClickHouse can process analytical workloads hundreds of times faster than legacy OLTP databases like Postgres. For AI companies, that means it can serve as the backbone for observability, training data pipelines, inference logging, and user analytics.

Anthropic as an Example Customer

Anthropic illustrates the complementary roles of Nebius and ClickHouse.

ClickHouse at Anthropic: Claude, Anthropic’s family of large language models, requires massive-scale observability. Training runs must be monitored in real time; inference logs must be analyzed for latency, accuracy, and safety. Anthropic uses ClickHouse to power these analytics workloads, relying on its high throughput and low-latency query performance.

Nebius at Anthropic (hypothetical): While Anthropic hasn’t yet announced any reliance on Nebius for compute, the need is obvious. Training multimodal models requires vast GPU clusters, and inference at scale demands reliable, cost-efficient compute. Nebius is designed to solve precisely that problem—just one layer away from Anthropic’s current setup with Google Cloud TPUs and AWS Bedrock.

Together, these examples show how ClickHouse manages the data fabric while Nebius provides the compute fabric. One fuels the other, and both are indispensable for building next-generation AI systems.

[Misunderstood Multibaggers @meeijer]

Look at these charts and tell me you’re bearish on either of these companies.

$NBIS
$HIMS
$TMDX
$DLO

[Justin M. @Juspm97]

@Bitcoinprof0637 6VpXhe99XvA7brTUkkxA8xUwPo72nRQK6DkLrnhygLxS