Bill McGill

Liquidity taking reply guy
May have long or short exposure on securities mentioned - may even have exposure opposite implied by my idiotic comments.

[Bill McGill @JustBankStocks]

He’s going to really enjoy the day he just manages his own money.

[Rich Handler @HandlerRich]

Jefferies is not promoting any shorting activity regarding any IPO.  Any suggestion to the contrary is WRONG.

[Bill McGill @JustBankStocks]

@blondesnmoney @Dollar_Bill_100 What do you think of GAMI with Gabelli maybe not in a position to resume?

[Bill McGill @JustBankStocks]

That’s an under-appreciated sentiment in bank investing. All too often when when you have been holding a shitco bank too long, it’s comforting just to seem them take any non-stupid corporate action (an actual good one, no matter how small, is a bonus), just so you know they still view themselves as having some corporate agency.

[Bill McGill @JustBankStocks]

@TimyanBankAlert To be clear, I was hoping for the windfall.

[Bill McGill @JustBankStocks]

@TimyanBankAlert Accretive to all, windfalls to none.

[Bill McGill @JustBankStocks]

@stoked_on_waves @CitronResearch SEC enforcement staff have adopted a Schrodinger's cat interpretation of loss causation.

[Bill McGill @JustBankStocks]

Plus, characteristically for a Nasdaq Baltic issuer, $CPA1T has excellent English-language investor materials and timely reporting and disclosures. Coop Pank even provides unaudited, monthly operating results reporting. While there are a lot more great little companies at compelling prices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, the quality of investor reporting for all but the largest of them is far inferior to what you will find on Tallinn Stock Exchange. And let's not even discuss the abomination of issuer reporting you will find on Czech, Austrian and Hungarian markets.

[Bill McGill @JustBankStocks]

@Schornack @SEC_digger Because a large percentage of them will show they haven't earned their cost of capital and, therefore, independence.

[Bill McGill @JustBankStocks]

@bank_reg In what way is this exciting or surprising? This is a pure dog bites man, as previously reported, story.

[Bill McGill @JustBankStocks]

Paint’s all dry.

[Bill McGill @JustBankStocks]

I started to read $NSTS 3Q, but then I realized some paint was drying on the house next door and rushed over to watch it instead. 43k shares repurchased. May they live through interesting proxy seasons.

[Bill McGill @JustBankStocks]

I don’t know, man. I’ve met Brenda and she’s not all that observant and the things she does observe don’t seem to factor into even community bank relationship-based loans. I know Joe G. can show you a pretty chart demonstrating that $1B asset banks have lower NPL and charge off rates than $50B asset banks, even when comparing like to like loan categories (it’s not just % of resi loans to total loans driving the lower loss rate), but I don’t think Brenda has much to do with it. The CRE LTVs do. The reach for NIM on inventory financing does. In fact, when banks do fail, the FDIC loss rate on small community banks is absolutely breathtaking compared to FDIC loss rates on larger community and regional banks. And those stunning small bank losses are, in fact, very much due to “relationship” lending.

[Dirt Cheap Banks @dirtcheapbanks]

Brenda has worked at this bank for twenty-seven years and she knows which farmers are three months behind on their equipment loans but still good for it and which ones are current on paper but won't make it through the winter, and she knows that Mr. Henderson's weekly deposit should be exactly $2,847.12 every Friday unless he sold extra calves that week, and she knows that the Peterson kid's checking account went negative three times last month which means he's probably using again, and she knows that the widow Morrison always withdraws exactly $300 every second Tuesday for her grandson's piano lessons even though the grandson is now thirty-four and lives in Denver, and this knowledge lives in her head and nowhere else because there is no field in the core banking system for "Morrison withdraws $300 for dead grandson" or "Henderson's deposit timing correlates with cattle market" or "Peterson family addiction patterns affect loan performance," and when the acquisition closes next month Brenda will train her replacement for exactly forty-seven minutes on how to process a wire transfer and how to order new checks and how to run the daily cash report, but there is no training manual for twenty-seven years of watching the same families grow up and fail and get married and default and die, and the acquiring bank's efficiency experts have calculated that eliminating her $47,000 salary will improve the cost-to-income ratio by thirty-six basis points, and they are correct about the math and completely wrong about everything else, and Brenda will clean out her desk on a Friday afternoon and take her coffee mug and her photos of her grandkids and walk out of the building where she has spent more waking hours than her own home, and the bank will continue operating and the customers will learn to use the ATM and the drive-through and the mobile app, and the new systems will process transactions faster and more efficiently than Brenda ever could, but no computer will ever know that Henderson's late payment means he's probably getting divorced again, and no algorithm will recognize the early warning signs in the Peterson kid's account activity, and no spreadsheet will track the subtle rhythms of a rural economy that Brenda could read like sheet music, and six months later when three farmers default in the same week and the loan committee wonders how they missed the warning signs, there will be no one left to explain that the signs were all there if you knew how to look, but the person who knew how to look got eliminated for efficiency.

[Bill McGill @JustBankStocks]

"Total assets decreased $27.7 million, or 3.1%, to $877.2 million at March 31, 2026 from $904.9 million at December 31, 2025, due largely to a decrease in cash and cash equivalents, securities and loans."

So assets decreased due to all of the assets decreasing. Thanks for the insight, chief.

[Bill McGill @JustBankStocks]

I'd rather 10 men get sexually harassed by attractive LevFin MDs with cannons than have one get an undeserved $1MM payoff.

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

Breaking: JPMorgan offered a former banker $1 million to settle his lurid sex claims weeks before he filed a lawsuit that has captivated Wall Street https://t.co/Q89wY4Il86

[Bill McGill @JustBankStocks]

3.3 years, nice premium.

[Bill McGill @JustBankStocks]

Happy $FSEA 3 year anniversary.

[Chuckle Fox ReDox @jimdelisle]

This is just getting silly now. Looking at the most recent TWO/CCM amendment, TWO owes CCM about 75c/sh (25c CCM has paid UWM already and another 50c for the amended termination fee) if it goes with UWM.

So if Bill hits Matt’s 12.00 bid - using first names highlighting how personal this is for the parties involved - he actually ends up with 11.25 vs CCM’s current 11.30. That’s not going to happen. This bid is just meant to show Bill up and POSSIBLY make CCM pay more, which they be fools to even consider.

[Bill McGill @JustBankStocks]

@Catahoula_Value @PhilTimyan @TimyanBankAlert That's not the case. They sold their servicing business and their mortgage warehouse business, but they still operate a full service retail banking business in Michigan, including mortgage origination.

[Bill McGill @JustBankStocks]

@Catahoula_Value @PhilTimyan @TimyanBankAlert Flagstar's likely out of what?

[Bill McGill @JustBankStocks]

@Catahoula_Value @PhilTimyan @TimyanBankAlert $FLG, probably. Pretending their reason for buying puts on it is to hedge negative impacts on their loan portfolio from FLG's (unlikely) failure is a bit of a stretch.

[Bill McGill @JustBankStocks]

This comment is exactly right, but it also replaces a bank that made loans on more idiosyncratic underwriting standards with a bank that underwrites loans with something closer to common regional bank standards. That’s not necessarily good or bad, but we are getting more homogenous underwriting of loans.

[Bill McGill @JustBankStocks]

What the hell? Where are the AT1 investors’ cookies?

[Dirt Cheap Banks @dirtcheapbanks]

I have built a spreadsheet. It has 847 rows. Each row is a community bank in the United States with a market cap below $200 million, a price-to-tangible-book ratio under 0.85, a non-performing loan ratio below 0.4%, and a CEO who has been in the role for at least twelve years. I update it every Sunday from 6 AM to 11 AM while my family attends church without me. I have visited the headquarters of nineteen of these banks in person. I have eaten a complimentary lobby cookie at each one. The cookies are how you can tell. A bank with a good cookie is a bank that respects its depositors. A bank with a stale cookie is a bank that will be acquired within 36 months at a 40% premium. I am never wrong about the cookies. The cookies have never lied to me. The cookies are the only thing left that tells the truth.