Just a Value Investor

My Substack

[Just a Value Investor @JustValue48]

$SRES.V is now winding down and the stock is up 63% today.

The stock is up over 100% since I pitched it.

[Just a Value Investor @JustValue48]

$SRES.V link in bio

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

From Li Lu's book:

At the beginning of the new year in 2016, I watched the movie "The Big Short". Adapted from the novel of the same name by Michael Lewis, the film tells the legendary story of the few investors who first discovered the 2007-2008 subprime mortgage crisis and the loopholes in the entire financial system of the United States, and started shorting to profit. I have personally experienced many of the events involved in the film; I have more or less intersected with the various characters in the film, so watching it gives me a more immersive sense of reality, which also triggers some thoughts.

From 2005 and 2006, I personally discovered the product of credit default swaps (CDS) due to accidental reasons. After doing some research, I was also planning to enter on a large scale and sell short through CDS. Later, after several conversations with Charlie Munger, this idea was gradually dispelled. The reason for Charlie’s objection is also very simple: if my analysis is correct, it means that in the end, either the counterparty of these products, those large financial companies may not be able to cash out due to bankruptcy; or these large financial institutions are approved by the government. The taxpayers' money has been saved. At this time, the money you earn is actually taxpayers' and government's money, so you are not at ease. Later, the results really confirmed Charlie's judgement. The money earned from the largest short position in history was actually obtained directly or indirectly from taxpayers around the world. So I have never regretted not earning taxpayer money.

Investment itself is a prediction of the future. Although the prediction is correct, it will bring some pleasure to some extent, but the results of different ways of making money are still different. Later, after the publication of this book by Michael Lewis, I had several exchanges with Charlie and talked about the decision at that time. He said that if you made a lot of money doing CDS at that time, you may still be looking for a new CDS today. A big short opportunity. Human nature is like this.

[Just a Value Investor @JustValue48]

I didn’t buy enough $EVC

[Just a Value Investor @JustValue48]

@david_katunaric Beautiful

[Clark Square Capital @ClarkSquareCap]

Here is this week's special situations digest.

281 situations in activist campaigns, M&A/divestments, management changes, and other corporate events.

Make sure to check it out

[Just a Value Investor @JustValue48]

@finance_schmidt Interesting

[Just a Value Investor @JustValue48]

@Floebertus Do you like the business?

[Just a Value Investor @JustValue48]

A Spin off that’s grown revenue at a 100% CAGR trading at 11x earnings.
Link in bio

[Just a Value Investor @JustValue48]

@HalvioCapital Nice write up. It’s been on my watchlist

[NFL Memes @NFLMemes]

Rashee Rice finally understand what it feels like to get unexpectedly hit at a high rate of speed and have the man responsible leave the scene

[Tobias @kingfishcap]

His orders look to always involve fractional shares, so he is likely not doing manual orders and the stake is determined by something else (like kelly criterion or other). Lots of position sizes ranging from tiny to huge, meaning he could be covering all sides of the bets or he simply is betting according to edge.

I think he's cross "time" arbing the btc mkts which is very profitable if you know the option value of btc price at x date. Then you just pick off prices that are wrong. Looking at his activity, he's obviously automated this.

On Poly, there's lots of opps coz markets that are correlated - like "btc by dec 4th > 100k" & "btc by dec 5th > 100k" - become disrupted by the current retail betting base. As in, a bettor comes along and market orders "btc by dec 4th > 100k", crossing the spread so moving the price, but "dec 5th > 100k price" doesn't change because the retail bettor didn't cross the spread on that market, however they are obviously correlated mkts so at least 1 of the prices on either outcome has to be the wrong price. That would result in at least 1 +ev bet.

This is like 1 out of 20 things i've thought of how to gain edge on polymarket, alas I have no coding skill so tradfi quants, you can have at it.

PS: I manually put on a cross market arb @ 8% return ending in a month just now. Lots of opps there.

[Just a Value Investor @JustValue48]

I’ve started messing around on Kalshi and it’s pretty easy to scalp trades

[Anthony @HalvioCapital]

Sometimes you don't even have to get past the first page to know it's a pass

[Just a Value Investor @JustValue48]

@joinyellowbrick I’ve had similar issues. It’s also funny how the value investing subreddit hates micro cap ideas

[Just a Value Investor @JustValue48]

@DV_Situations Looks really good

[Just a Value Investor @JustValue48]

5 Micro Cap quick pitches

Link in bio

[Just a Value Investor @JustValue48]

@realroseceline @dirtcheapstocks

[Just a Value Investor @JustValue48]

My favorite part of ChatGPT deep research is looking through the links it uses. I tend to get more value out of the links it finds than the actual response.

[Adi Soglowek @pbcinc]

Analyst: ... "𝘐𝘯 𝘱𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘴, 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘢 𝘯𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘮𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘱𝘰𝘭𝘺?"

CEO: "𝘐 𝘥𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘭𝘪𝘬𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘥".

😆

[Just a Value Investor @JustValue48]

@david_katunaric Brown noise for the win

[Just a Value Investor @JustValue48]

@friedoystercult 😂 I never know how to write it without Elon getting mad

[Just a Value Investor @JustValue48]

Anyone else having a problem with Su**t*ck? Every time I try to write something the website refreshes and removes what I added