Justin Trader

[Justin Trader @Justin__Trader]

$NVDA $INTC $AMZN $MSFT $AAPL $PLTR $SPCX $SNAP $MU $SOFI $ORCL $META $TSLA $AMD $CRWV U.S. stocks closed higher Monday (SPX +1.5% to ~7,600 near record territory, NDX +2.1%), led by mega-cap tech on falling oil prices after Trump paused Iran strike plans and optimism around Hormuz reopening. 10-yr yields hover near 4.7%.

2026 S&P 500 EPS estimates continue to rise (consensus now pointing to roughly +24-29% YoY growth, with IT/semiconductors contributing the bulk). Forward 12-month P/E for the S&P sits around 19.6-21x (near or slightly above the 10-year average of ~19x, below recent peaks). Nasdaq-100 trades richer, closer to the mid-20s to low-30s on various trailing/forward measures. S&P earnings yield is approximately 4.6-5%, roughly matching the 10-yr Treasury — equities look fairly valued relative to bonds on that metric, not cheap.

AI infrastructure spending remains the key driver (hyperscalers guiding ~$700B+ combined capex for 2026). Revenue growth in cloud/AI is still strong for the leaders, but free-cash-flow pressure is real at some names as depreciation and build-out accelerate. Growth will moderate from these elevated rates; multiple expansion is unlikely to be the main source of further upside.

Can tech keep “surging wildly”? Unlikely in a straight line. The easy valuation re-rating phase is largely behind us. Further gains will depend on sustained EPS delivery and AI monetization (not just spend). Concentration risk in the Mag 7 / AI complex is high.

Worth a heavy overweight? Selective yes — high-quality compounders with durable AI revenue ramps and reasonable PEG still make sense as core holdings. Blanket heavy concentration or chasing every name at current levels does not. We prefer positions where the upside comes primarily from earnings growth rather than multiple expansion, with a margin of safety. Risk/reward is asymmetric only if you stay disciplined on valuation.

[Justin Trader @Justin__Trader]

$MU $SOFI $ORCL $META $TSLA $AMD $CRWV
U.S. stock futures edged higher pre-market (SPX +0.1–0.3%, NDX +0.3–0.6%) extending Monday’s strong rebound (SPX +1.5% to 7,600, NDX +2.1%) as optimism over U.S.-Iran talks and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz continued to support risk assets.

Brent crude stabilized near $85/bbl after Monday’s 4.7–7% plunge, while 10-year Treasury yields held around 4.69%. Mega-cap tech remained firm after $AMZN crossed the $3 trillion market-cap mark. Key earnings today include SpaceX’s first public report post-IPO ($SPCX), AMD, and McDonald’s. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates continue to rise (+25% YoY range) on AI infrastructure spend. Equities trade near fair value vs bonds with a ~4.6% earnings yield roughly matching the 10-year yield.

We remain cautious on $TSLA given ongoing declines in longer-term earnings estimates, the accelerating commoditization of unsupervised autonomy (Waymo and others already scaling paid rides), and its extended valuation. For greater detail please see my pre-mkt summary for Subscribers.

$NVDA $INTC $AMZN $MSFT $AAPL $PLTR $SPCX $SNAP

[Justin Trader @Justin__Trader]

SK Hynix ($000660 / SKHY) posted record Q2 results: revenue 79.3 trillion won (+257% YoY, +51% QoQ) and operating profit 60.5 trillion won (+557% YoY) at a 76% margin, driven by sharp ASP increases in HBM and AI-server DRAM. Net profit hit 93.9 trillion won, heavily inflated by one-time gains from the Kioxia stake sale/revaluation.
AI memory demand remains robust and long-term supply agreements are locked with ~10 key customers, but execution risk on HBM4 yields, capacity ramp, and potential hyperscaler CapEx digestion is real. Valuation is no longer the primary constraint it was at the peak; the question is whether production can fully catch the still-elevated promises.

[Justin Trader @Justin__Trader]

$AMZN $AAPL $NVDA $INTC $NOK $RBLX $MU $IREN $SOFI $MSFT $GOOGL
U.S. tech stocks head into August after a choppy July defined by mixed Mag 7 results and ongoing AI CapEx scrutiny. $MSFT and $AMZN delivered strong cloud growth that eased near-term ROI concerns, while $META faced pressure on free cash flow and $AAPL disappointed on guidance. $NVDA reports on August 26, which will be the key data point on semiconductor demand.

S&P 500 FY’26 EPS estimates sit near $346 (+25% YoY), putting the index at roughly 21x forward earnings — in line with 10-year Treasury yields on an earnings-yield basis. Tech has corrected about 10-11% from June peaks, bringing valuations back to more reasonable levels after the earlier AI premium expansion. Hyperscaler CapEx guidance remains elevated (roughly $700-900B range for 2026), but the market is now laser-focused on actual monetization rather than just spending announcements.

I expect selective strength in August among names showing clear AI returns (cloud platforms with accelerating growth, memory and networking semis with tight supply). Broader tech may stay range-bound or choppy given August seasonality, residual Iran-related energy volatility, and the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance.

[Justin Trader @Justin__Trader]

$AMZN $AAPL $NVDA $INTC $NOK $RBLX $MU $IREN $SOFI $MSFT $GOOGL

July was a volatile, down month for tech stocks. The Nasdaq-100 fell about 7% and the technology sector (XLK) dropped 5–8%, pressured by AI CapEx worries, profit-taking after a strong first half, and Middle East oil volatility—despite a late-month rebound.

Standouts included Microsoft, which surged 15.5% on July 30 after Azure cloud revenue exceeded $100 billion annualized (the largest single-day market-cap gain ever), and Amazon, which jumped double-digits on strong cloud results. Semiconductors swung sharply, with memory names like Micron and equipment stocks seeing big AI-driven moves followed by profit-taking.

Magnificent 7 performance diverged sharply: Apple held relative YTD strength (+23%) but stumbled on supply guidance; Meta fell hard on weak 3Q guidance and higher CapEx; Nvidia finished modestly positive YTD but remained volatile; Tesla lagged badly (−30%+ YTD).

Investors are focused on whether the $700B+ hyperscaler CapEx wave will deliver sustained free-cash-flow growth. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates near $346 (+25% YoY) still support a ~21x forward P/E roughly in line with 10-year yields.

[Justin Trader @Justin__Trader]

U.S. stocks mixed midday Friday (SPX roughly +0.2%, NDX +0.4%) after a volatile open, with 10-year yields pushing higher and residual AI Capex questions lingering.
$AMZN surged +13–14% on strong AWS growth and better-than-expected results that eased concerns over AI returns. $MSFT added another +1.6–1.8% following its record move yesterday. $GOOGL rose +2–3%.
$AAPL dropped –9–9.8% after warning that supply constraints on Macs, iPhones and iPads would weigh on growth despite solid overall numbers.
Semiconductor names were mixed: $NVDA +1.5–1.9%, $MU +4–4.4%, $INTC +2–6%. $NOK was essentially flat.
$RBLX plunged –28–29% after weak Q3 bookings guidance and a softer outlook. $IREN traded lower (roughly –5%) after yesterday’s sharp rebound. $SOFI eased –0.5–1.9%.
S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates remain around $346 (+25% YoY), implying a forward P/E near 21x and an earnings yield still roughly in line with 10-year yields. Investor attention stays on whether hyperscaler Capex continues to translate into durable returns.

[Justin Trader @Justin__Trader]

$AMZN $AAPL $NVDA $INTC $NOK $RBLX $MU $IREN $SOFI $MSFT $GOOGL
U.S. stocks rose (SPX +0.4%, NDX +1.0%) as a global chipmakers’ rebound led by SK Hynix (+30%) and Samsung (+21%) lifted South Korea’s Kospi by an unprecedented 18%. In addition, $AMZN’s strong earnings last night (+12% pre-mkt, AWS +37% YoY) eased AI spending concerns after hyperscalers guided FY’26 CapEx only modestly higher to ~$730B from $700B.
$AAPL fell -7% on weak guidance and supply constraints, while $GOOG and $META gained. $TSLA +1.5% after the WSJ reported that TSLA is considering a potential separation of its China business to pave the way for a possible merger with $SPCX. $RIVN +4% after beating 2Q rev/EBITDA and guiding higher on R2 strength. 10-year yields rose to ~4.66-4.73%.
Brent crude held near $85-90/bbl. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates remain robust at ~$340-346 (+22-25% YoY), implying a forward P/E around 21x with earnings yield in line with Treasuries.
I remain cautious on $TSLA due to declining long-term earnings estimates, likely commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a stretched valuation.

[Justin Trader @Justin__Trader]

U.S. stocks rebounded strongly Thursday (SPX +1.7% to 7,437.63, NDX +2.8%) after Wednesday’s Fed-driven selloff, led by $MSFT’s +15% surge on Azure cloud revenue topping $100B for the first time and steady CapEx guidance that reassured investors AI investments are generating returns rather than pure spend. $META dropped ~9% on lighter 3Q revenue guidance and higher FY’26 CapEx.
Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% (9-3 vote, three dissenters preferred a hike). 10-year yields hovered near 4.69%. Brent crude eased slightly to ~$87/bbl amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions.
S&P 500 FY’2026 EPS estimates remain firm at ~$346 (+25% YoY), implying a ~21.1x forward P/E and 4.7% earnings yield roughly in line with 10-year yields. Investor focus stays on whether hyperscaler AI CapEx continues to translate into profitable growth.
I remain cautious on $TSLA given declining long-term earnings estimates, intensifying unsupervised autonomy competition, and still-stretched valuation.

[Justin Trader @Justin__Trader]

U.S. tech stocks face a decisive session tomorrow, primarily driven by post-close earnings from AAPL and AMZN.
Today’s rebound (NDX ~+2.6%, SPX +1.5%) was fueled by MSFT’s strong Azure results, which signaled that hyperscaler AI CapEx is starting to translate into revenue growth. This helped offset the recent semiconductor sell-off and the Fed’s patient stance, while softer June PCE data eased near-term inflation concerns.
Focus now shifts to AAPL (iPhone/Services margins, China, CapEx) and AMZN (AWS growth and CapEx intensity). Guidance on AI investment returns will set the tone for the broader tech sector—especially semiconductors ($NVDA, $AMD, $MU, $INTC). Residual MSFT strength may provide a floor, but any disappointment could reopen valuation concerns.
The author remains cautious on TSLA due to declining forward earnings estimates, competition in autonomy/Optimus, and stretched valuation relative to long-term EPS growth.
Broader backdrop remains constructive (S&P 2026 EPS ~$346, +25% YoY, ~21x forward P/E), but near-term tech direction is binary around the quality of tonight’s mega-cap guidance.

[Justin Trader @Justin__Trader]

Highest-heat names today (July 30 midday) are concentrated in the Mag 7 + semiconductors:
$MSFT leading by a wide margin (+15% range) after last night’s results: Azure +43%, cloud revenue strength, backlog surge, and CapEx guidance that eased some ROI fears. $META the clear opposite — sharp decline on the AI spending/guidance miss and margin pressure. $MU, $INTC, $AMD (and $NVDA to a lesser extent) rebounding hard after the prior week’s memory/AI CapEx selloff. $AAPL and $AMZN elevated into their after-close reports — the next test of hyperscaler AI monetization. $TSLA and $SPCX still drawing volume from residual valuation and autonomy debates.
Common thread: the market is pricing differentiation on AI returns right now. Microsoft showed external demand conversion; Meta did not. Chip names are bouncing on the hope that the hyperscaler spend cycle is not collapsing. AAPL/AMZN guidance this afternoon will decide whether the rebound holds or the CapEx skepticism returns.
S&P and NDX are up on the MSFT-led tech bounce, 10-year yields elevated, oil still sensitive to Middle East headlines. Valuation discipline still applies — high-multiple names need to keep delivering earnings, not just narratives.

[Justin Trader @Justin__Trader]

Simple directional lean for tomorrow (July 30):
The AI/memory/semiconductor cluster — $NVDA, $MU, $INTC, $SKHY, $IREN — remains under residual pressure. SK Hynix just posted record Q2 results (operating margin 76%, revenue +257% YoY) yet the stock sold off hard because expectations were even higher and China competition (CXMT) fears persist. The broader rotation out of AI hardware that has already cut the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index into correction territory is still in force. $AAPL and $AMZN earnings after the close will be the single biggest catalyst for this entire group.
$F carries positive momentum from its recent beat and raised full-year outlook. $SOFI, $T, $NOK and $JBLU are more idiosyncratic (rates, telecom, oil/consumer) and less tightly linked to the AI CapEx narrative.
Common thread:Near-term direction for the whole list is still highly sensitive to overall risk appetite and NDX direction. The pure AI-hardware names ($NVDA/$MU/$INTC/$SKHY/$IREN) move with the highest correlation; the others diverge on company-specific news. Until investors get clearer CapEx ROI signals from the mega-caps tomorrow, the AI-linked names stay the most vulnerable.

[Justin Trader @Justin__Trader]

These names — $INTC $NVDA $MU $SPCX $AMD $AAPL $TSLA $AMZN — are set to move with unusually high correlation tomorrow.
The common driver is residual pressure from the semiconductor/AI CapEx narrative after this week’s sharp Korean memory selloff (SK Hynix & Samsung) and growing investor questions on the return on the $700B+ hyperscaler spending wave. Memory names ($MU in particular) remain the most exposed near-term. The rest of the group is high-beta to the same AI investment cycle and to mega-cap guidance.
Fed held rates today in the 3.50–3.75% range with a patient statement (9-3 vote). 10-year yields are near 4.65%. That removes one immediate macro overhang, but does not resolve the valuation debate for the highest-multiple names.
Tomorrow’s key catalysts are $AAPL and $AMZN earnings after the close. Guidance on AI CapEx intensity and cloud/hardware demand will set the tone for the entire group. Until then, expect the basket to track NDX direction with elevated volatility.
I remain cautious on $TSLA and $SPCX. Both still trade at extreme forward multiples relative to long-term EPS growth, even after the recent pullbacks. Valuation discipline continues to keep us on the sidelines there.
S&P 2026 EPS estimates remain constructive near $346 (+25% YoY), but the near-term path for these eight names is highly synchronized around the AI spending ROI question.

[Justin Trader @Justin__Trader]

U.S. stocks slipped midday (SPX -0.7% to -0.9%, NDX -1.0%) as a surprise Iranian attack on a U.S. base broke the multi-day pause in hostilities and sent Brent crude surging +6-7% to near $90/bbl. 10-year Treasury yields edged higher to ~4.63-4.64% ahead of today’s Fed decision (which held the funds rate at 3.50-3.75% in a 9-3 vote).
The semiconductor complex extended its multi-day rout. $MU, $AMD, $INTC and $NVDA all traded lower as SK Hynix’s otherwise strong Q2 results still missed elevated expectations, Chinese memory competition (CXMT debut + domestic DUV progress) intensified, and investors continued to question the sustainability of hyperscaler AI capex and “circular” financing arrangements. $SPCX fell ~3.5% to the low $110s on persistent valuation concerns (still >175x FY26).
$AAPL held up relatively better near $340 after briefly touching the $5T market-cap mark yesterday. $AMZN drifted lower ahead of its own report tomorrow. $TSLA remained range-bound around $307.
2026 S&P 500 EPS estimates continue to sit near $346 (+25% YoY) on AI and residual energy strength, implying a ~21.3x P/E. I remain cautious on $TSLA given declining forward estimates, the accelerating commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a still-stretched valuation relative to long-term growth.

[Justin Trader @Justin__Trader]

U.S. stocks opened mixed-to-lower Wednesday (SPX -0.1% early, NDX flat to slightly lower) as investors digested overnight Iran missile strikes on U.S. forces that ended a brief lull in hostilities, while chip stocks continued to wobble after SK Hynix results and Korean shares plunged another -6%. Brent crude jumped +3.5% to ~$87/bbl on the renewed Middle East flare-up. 10-year yields ticked higher near 4.63% ahead of today’s Fed decision (widely expected to hold rates for a fifth consecutive meeting). Big Tech earnings from $MSFT and $META loom after the close, with focus remaining on AI CapEx sustainability. 2026 S&P EPS estimates hold near $346 (+25% YoY), implying ~21.4x P/E. I remain cautious on $TSLA given declining long-term earnings estimates, the likely commoditization of unsupervised autonomy technology, and a still-stretched valuation despite recent share declines.
$INTC $NVDA $MU $SPCX $AMD $AAPL $TSLA $AMZN

[Justin Trader @Justin__Trader]

U.S. tech stocks face a high-volatility session Wednesday as the Fed delivers its rate decision (widely expected to hold at 3.50%-3.75% for a fifth straight meeting) at 2 p.m. ET, followed by $MSFT and $META earnings after the close.
Nasdaq futures closed Tuesday down ~0.9% amid the ongoing semiconductor rout triggered by Korean memory makers and rising doubts over AI capex returns. Lower oil (Brent near $85) and easing 10-year yields (around 4.61%) provided some offset, but the AI trade remains under pressure.
Focus will be on Azure growth, ad monetization, and especially 2026-27 CapEx guidance. S&P 2026 EPS estimates sit at ~$346 (+25% YoY, ~21.4x P/E). I remain cautious on $TSLA given declining forward estimates, commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and still-stretched valuation.
Expect choppy action into the Fed statement and big moves after the two mega-cap prints.

[Justin Trader @Justin__Trader]

U.S. stocks remain under pressure Tuesday as the chip/memory rout deepens (NDX mixed to lower, SOX sharp losses) on China competition fears, AI circular financing concerns (NVDA OpenAI backstop reports), and Kospi’s 10%+ collapse. Brent continues to ease on U.S.-Iran pause. 10-yr yields near 4.60% ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision (hold still base case but hike odds elevated). Big Tech earnings (META Wed, then AAPL/AMZN) will be the next key test of AI CapEx sustainability. 2026 S&P EPS still tracking ~$346 (+25% YoY, ~21.4x).
Quick read on the names for Wednesday:

$NVDA / $MU / $SKHY: Memory/AI complex remains the epicenter of selling. SK Hynix and Samsung double-digit drops overnight are spilling over. Expect further pressure or at best a dead-cat bounce until hyperscaler CapEx commentary this week. Valuation reset still incomplete.
$INTC: Recent strong Q2 (25% rev growth, best in 15 yrs, foundry + AI lift) is being ignored in the broad semi washout. High CapEx guidance ($20B+) is a near-term overhang. Relative resilience possible but follows the group lower if SOX keeps bleeding.
$SPCX: Still trading at ~180x+ FY26 P/E. Same valuation math that has me looking for TSLA below $300 applies here. Expect it to test $100 area in coming weeks as AI-related multiples compress.
$GLW: Optical/AI data-center exposure is real, but the stock has been hit hard in the sector unwind. Company-specific strength may limit downside vs pure memory names.
$PLTR: Software/AI application layer has shown relative strength recently. Less exposed to the pure chip/memory glut narrative; can hold up better if META/MSFT commentary is constructive.
$SOFI / $NOK / $PLUG: Lower beta to the AI trade. SOFI more rate/consumer sensitive into Fed; NOK still telecom/5G story with limited AI beta; PLUG remains speculative hydrogen name with weak fundamentals. Expect them to trade more with broader market/rates than the chip complex.

Bottom line: The AI trade is in a healthy (and overdue) digestion phase. I remain cautious on stretched multiples across the high-growth complex. Prefer to wait for clearer CapEx and funding signals from the hyperscalers later this week before adding risk in semis.

[Justin Trader @Justin__Trader]

U.S. stocks mixed today as the semiconductor/AI selloff deepened, with Korean memory names leading the charge lower. Kospi plunged >10% after SK Hynix and Samsung each dropped 13-14%+ on fresh China competition fears (domestic DUV lithography progress + CXMT’s explosive Shanghai IPO). That cascaded into U.S. names: $MU -8% to -11%, $SKHY -7% to -9%, $INTC -5% to -8%, $GLW -15% to -19% (beat on Q2 but Q3 guide only in-line with elevated AI optical expectations), $NVDA softer but recovered some ground after Monday’s -5%, $NOK -4%+, $PLTR -5%, $PLUG -4%, $SOFI -1.5%. $SPCX bucked the trend, finishing +2.5% near $116.
Common driver across the group (especially the chip/memory/AI cluster): investors are reassessing the sustainability of the AI CapEx supercycle. Circular financing concerns (NVDA’s reported $250B OpenAI data-center backstop talks), stretched valuations after massive YTD runs, and the emerging threat of Chinese capacity in commodity DRAM/NAND are forcing a de-risking. $GLW’s drop shows how high the bar is for any AI infrastructure supplier. Broader risk-off also hit speculative growth names like $PLUG and rate-sensitive $SOFI.
S&P 2026 EPS estimates remain elevated at ~$346 (+25% YoY) on AI and energy strength (21.4x P/E). Brent continues lower amid the U.S.-Iran pause. Fed decision later this week. I remain cautious on names trading at extreme multiples when forward growth estimates face any scrutiny—AI demand is real, but the financing and competitive risks are no longer being ignored.

[Justin Trader @Justin__Trader]

U.S. stocks mixed Tuesday as a deepening chipmaker rout — triggered by the plunge in Korean semiconductor stocks (Kospi -10.8%) and fresh doubts over AI spending returns — outweighed the positive offset from lower oil prices and softer treasury yields.
SPX roughly flat, NDX under pressure. Brent crude fell further to the mid-$85 area amid the extended U.S.-Iran pause and Hormuz traffic talks. 10-year yields eased to ~4.61-4.63% ahead of this week’s Fed meeting, which is widely expected to hold rates for a fifth consecutive time.
About one-third of the S&P 500 reports this week, led by $MSFT, $META, $AAPL and $AMZN where the focus will remain on the AI CapEx arms race, plus consumer names ($KO already strong, $V, etc.). S&P 2026 EPS estimates have continued to rise to $346 (+25% YoY), implying a 21.4x P/E.
I remain cautious on $TSLA due to declining forward earnings estimates, the likely commoditization of unsupervised autonomy technology, and a seemingly excessive valuation.
$INTC $NOK $NVDA $SPCX $PLUG $MU $SKHY $GLW $SOFI $PLTR

[Justin Trader @Justin__Trader]

U.S. stocks closed mixed Monday (SPX +0.02% to 7,413, NDX lower) as a pause in U.S.-Iran hostilities drove Brent crude down sharply (to the mid-$88 area, off ~7% from recent highs), easing some inflation pressure ahead of this week’s Fed decision. However, the AI/semiconductor complex sold off hard after Chinese competitors (CXMT IPO at a massive valuation and reports of domestic DUV lithography production) raised fresh questions about long-term pricing power and market share. $NVDA fell ~4.7% to the high-$190s; SK Hynix, MU, and ASML also posted heavy losses.
Looking to Tuesday: Tech is likely to remain under pressure and range-bound as investors digest the China competition news and position ahead of the heavy Big Tech earnings slate (MSFT and META on Wednesday, AAPL and AMZN on Thursday). The focus will be on CapEx commentary and whether AI infrastructure spend is still translating into durable earnings growth. 2026 S&P EPS estimates remain constructive near $346 (+25% YoY), implying a ~21.4x P/E, but the high-valuation end of the tech complex remains vulnerable to any disappointment on returns on capital.
I remain cautious on $TSLA given continued downward revisions to longer-term earnings estimates, the accelerating competitive landscape in unsupervised autonomy, and a still-stretched valuation relative to forward growth.
Overall, Tuesday looks like a digestion/positioning day for tech rather than a directional breakout. Risk assets get some support from lower oil, but semiconductor and high-multiple AI names face the heavier lift.
$INTC $INTC $MU $TSLA $SOFI $SPCX $LVWR $STAK

[Justin Trader @Justin__Trader]

U.S. tech stocks are mixed midday Monday as $NVDA drops ~4.5% to the high $190s on AI CapEx scrutiny and Chinese competition concerns, weighing on the Nasdaq (Composite ~24,850, -0.4%). Broader indices are firmer with the S&P 500 near 7,390 (-0.2%) and Dow slightly higher, helped by a sharp plunge in oil (Brent/WTI ~-7%) after a pause in U.S.-Iran hostilities. 10-year yields eased to ~4.65%.
This week is pivotal: roughly one-third of the S&P 500 reports, led by $MSFT and $META (Wednesday) then $AAPL and $AMZN (Thursday). Focus will be squarely on AI infrastructure spending plans and whether the massive CapEx cycle is still translating into accelerating earnings. 2026 S&P 500 EPS estimates sit near $346 (+25% YoY), implying a forward P/E of ~21.4x — roughly in line with the 10-year yield and only a modest premium to history.
I remain constructive on the AI trade overall, particularly high-bandwidth memory and data-center related semis where demand continues to outstrip supply into 2027. However, valuation discipline is non-negotiable. Stocks cannot sustain 150-200x+ forward earnings when long-term growth rates are being revised lower.
That is why I continue to stay cautious on $TSLA. Forward estimates keep drifting down, unsupervised autonomy is rapidly being commoditized by $GOOG, $AMZN and others, and the stock still trades at a stretched multiple relative to its growth trajectory (PEG remains elevated vs. $NVDA, $AVGO, $META, etc.). Own tech where the earnings revisions and multiple make sense. Avoid names priced for perfection.
$INTC $INTC $MU $TSLA $SOFI $SPCX $LVWR $STAK