Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse are tanking more right now than the financial crisis of 2009. There are so many market indicators that we are heading towards a major financial crisis.
$DB $CB
Real Disposable Personal Income is down 6.15% from a year ago. Yet Real Personal Consumption Expenditures growth rates are positive.
This shows people digging a hole, running savings down and debt up. All the ingredients that tend to prolong and intensify recessions.
Macro predictions for 2022:23
1. The Japanese Yen (JPY) is a black swan event that ignites contagion across the globe. The BOJ’s YCC efforts to buoy the infamous USD/JPY carry trade and keep inflation at bay won’t work. USD/JPY at 136/USD at levels not seen since 2002
Stocks are backed by beliefs in future cash flows. Crypto is backed by belief in other degens buying from you at a higher price. Cash flows come and go but degeneracy never fails.