Kevin Hill

Christian, Husband, Dad, cancer survivor, 7 figure trader, Mavs, fitness, My sweet son is my trading Buddy!
Trends survive Volatility - Robert Gottlieb

[Kevin Hill @K28hill]

Gen AI: too much spend, too little benefit? ((I’ve been saying this about AI - time will tell if I am correct. The increase in competition will drive down prices - not up and thus making the inverse of what everyone thinks what AI is going to do.))
https://t.co/pNkyGmvGyZ

[Kevin Hill @K28hill]

@Geiger_Capital That is so misunderstood in today's world! These politicians are pointing fingers at rich people when they are the real problem!!

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

Today was a good reminder of this chart.

It's remarkable that miners are still printing free cash flow even with metals trading at deeply oversold levels.

Act accordingly.

https://t.co/SuGW6VYo0C

[Kevin Hill @K28hill]

@_LaurenGunn Nice, you think Anderson will be better than Stirtz? Thats a close one in my view!

[Kevin Hill @K28hill]

@SenWarren Your propaganda is ushering in socialism - do you think about that? Or do you just stick to the agenda?

[Kevin Hill @K28hill]

@MavsFilmRoom @hoopshype No Burries???..... Interesting

[Kevin Hill @K28hill]

@FIREDUpWealth Sounds about right, I'm thinking similar to COIN, your close to being on my track

[Kevin Hill @K28hill]

@DeItaone 38 war victories! A legend (in his own mind)

[Kevin Hill @K28hill]

@FIREDUpWealth 14 yrs ago started with $800 in FB, now multi-millionaire very blessed and humbled

[Kevin Hill @K28hill]

@FIREDUpWealth @Vivek4real_ Unless your AOL!!

[Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 @KingKong9888]

⭕️1973

• Jan: Fed Funds ~5.94% | Gold ~$65–70
• Feb: Fed Funds ~6.58% | Gold ~$70–75
• Mar: Fed Funds ~7.09% | Gold ~$80+
• Apr: Fed Funds ~7.12% | Gold ~$85–90
• May: Fed Funds ~7.84% | Gold ~$95–100
• Jun: Fed Funds ~8.49% | Gold ~$110–120
• Jul: Fed Funds ~10.40% | Gold ~$120+
• Aug: Fed Funds ~10.50% | Gold ~$115–125
• Sep: Fed Funds ~10.78% | Gold ~$115–120
• Oct: Fed Funds ~10.01% | Gold ~$110–120
• Nov: Fed Funds ~10.03% | Gold ~$100–110
• Dec: Fed Funds ~9.95% | Gold ~$110–120

⭕️1974

• Jan: Fed Funds ~9.65% | Gold ~$120–130
• Feb: Fed Funds ~8.97% | Gold ~$130–140
• Mar: Fed Funds ~9.35% | Gold ~$150+
• Apr: Fed Funds ~10.51% | Gold ~$160–170
• May: Fed Funds ~11.31% | Gold ~$170–180
• Jun: Fed Funds ~11.93% | Gold ~$170–180
• Jul: Fed Funds ~12.92% | Gold ~$170–180
• Aug: Fed Funds ~12.01% | Gold ~$150–160
• Sep: Fed Funds ~11.34% | Gold ~$150–160
• Oct: Fed Funds ~10.06% | Gold ~$160–170
• Nov: Fed Funds ~9.45% | Gold ~$170–180
• Dec: Fed Funds ~8.53% | Gold ~$180–193 (peak near year-end)

⭕️1975

• Jan: Fed Funds ~7.13% | Gold ~$170–180
• Feb: Fed Funds ~6.24% | Gold ~$170–175
• Mar: Fed Funds ~5.54% | Gold ~$170–180
• Apr: Fed Funds ~5.49% | Gold ~$165–170
• May: Fed Funds ~5.22% | Gold ~$165–170
• Jun: Fed Funds ~5.55% | Gold ~$160–170
• Jul: Fed Funds ~6.10% | Gold ~$160–165
• Aug: Fed Funds ~6.14% | Gold ~$160–165
• Sep: Fed Funds ~6.24% | Gold ~$150–160
• Oct: Fed Funds ~5.82% | Gold ~$140–150
• Nov: Fed Funds ~5.22% | Gold ~$135–145
• Dec: Fed Funds ~5.20% | Gold ~$135–140

Notes:

• Fed Funds rates are precise monthly averages from FRED (effective rate).

• Gold prices are approximate monthly averages based on historical London fix/market data (volatile period; exact daily closes varied). Gold surged amid the end of Bretton Woods, oil crisis, and inflation, while rates rose to combat it before easing in the 1975 recession.

👇The dual-axis chart below visually captures this relationship well.

[Kevin Hill @K28hill]

@DavidLe76335983 Yea no way, he loves the market - to him that's the economy

[Kevin Hill @K28hill]

@LiebermanAustin 100% agree with you, we might get a harder reset than that imo. Healthy for markets to correct- there’s been a lot of artificial pumping of liquidity in the markets to keep them propped up, that only lasts for a limited period

[Kevin Hill @K28hill]

@optionscjp 🤣🤣🤣

[Kevin Hill @K28hill]

@zerohedge How is that even possible when Iran has no military capabilities? I thought they were all destroyed and obliterated?

[Kevin Hill @K28hill]

@FIREDUpWealth Everyone was sucked into the dead cat bounce yesterday and are now panicking! This thing ain't over in a day they need to be patient

[Kevin Hill @K28hill]

@GrindeOptions Yesterday was called a dead cat bounce, look it up

[Kevin Hill @K28hill]

@iamtomnash One of the things you have to factor in is the market is super overvalued, it is correcting and it will correct way more than what it's done so far today

[Kevin Hill @K28hill]

@RyanLucas_LA No way

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

No matter what one's approach is to active trading, being charts or numerics or macro or fundamentals of all kinds, realize that any approach will be in sync with markets sometimes and out of sync other times.
This is the reality.
I do not trust the trader that says he/she constantly knows what kind of markets they are in and switches up accordingly. Nor should you trust them.
Some traders try to force their trading upon markets when their approach is out of sync.
Then there are times when a trader is out of sync with his/her own trading approach and forces trades that are out of their sweet spot.
Then there are times when an approach is out of sync with markets AND the trader is out of sync with the approach. Most accounts get rekt when this happens.
Mature traders develop an instinct about the compatibility of their approach and price discovery. During these times they stick with their approach, but emphasize risk control even more than normal.
Of course, mature traders think more in terms of risk management than trade selection. I know that anyone who emphasizes trade selection to me is someone I do not want to listen to.
I do not change up my approach when it is out of sync with price action. These periods will pass if I stay with my basis approach, which has not materially changed in decades.
Recently someone sent me a speech I gave before the MTA (predecessor of CMT) some 35 years ago. I could give the same speech today as representing my approach to market speculation.
My recommendation to aspiring novices or those who cannot gain traction is to develop an approach based on common sense (not smoke and mirrors), bet small, and improve it incrementally.
Only after several hundred trades using the same basic approach can you start running Monte Carlo simulations to determine if you have an edge.
Trading is a marathon, not a sprint.

[Patrick Saner @patrick_saner]

"Too many red flags"

- BofA