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https://t.co/C0yHfoCoXC
Saudi Wahabi Oil Lobby & Trump Administration
The Reliance–Aramco deal unable to go through was never just about mismatched valuations or any disagreements but it was about a larger shift in the balance of power in global energy markets and I see it as a turning point where India’s energy strategy collided with Saudi Arabia’s traditional dominance.
Reliance’s pivot toward Russian crude, combined with its green energy ambitions, broke the alignment that the Saudis had hoped would cement their grip over India’s refining future.
What Reliance did was simple but yet hurt Aramco: from 2022 onwards it aggressively bought discounted Russian Urals, securing barrels that were $6–$12 cheaper than Middle Eastern supplies, and ran them through the world’s largest refining complex at Jamnagar. The economics were unbeatable.
By 2025, Russian crude made up 36–50% of Reliance’s intake, compared to just 3–10% before 2022, and in the first half of 2025 alone Reliance exported over 21 million tonnes of refined fuels to Europe. These were volumes that Aramco once supplied, and as Indian cargoes docked in Europe, Saudi diesel was displaced. The Saudis lost contracts, lost market share.
This angered Riyadh, because for them this isn’t just about barrels it’s about prestige and power. India, once considered a steady customer, is now being accused of destabilizing crude markets. The timing made it worse: just as Saudi Arabia has been trying to recalibrate its ties with Washington, it finds that Indian refiners are undercutting it in Europe with Russian Oil.
The anger translates into geopolitics, because Riyadh’s deep ties with Washington’s power brokers give it leverage. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has already promised the U.S. a trillion dollars in investments, and Aramco and the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF), led by Yasir Al-Rumayyan, have placed $2 billion in Jared Kushner’s private equity fund in 2021, buying influence at the very top of Trump’s orbit.
The Wahhabi oil lobby knows how to work the levers of Washington, and the pressure campaign against India’s Russian crude play is being dressed up as strategic necessity for both Aramco’s recovery and America’s desire to protect the dollar system.
Pakistan, predictably, is being recycled as a proxy in this pressure game. In 2023, the Saudis injected $2 billion into Pakistan’s central bank, enabling Islamabad to unlock an IMF bailout, and promised further investments in projects like the Reko Diq mine.
Pakistan’s noise about India’s refining of Russian crude, particularly attempts to demonize the Jamnagar refinery, isn’t organic. The idea is to squeeze India indirectly, making life uncomfortable for Indian Refiners & to signal that India’s growing dominance in refined exports won’t go unchallenged.
The Americans add another layer of irritation. It isn’t just about crude discounts it’s about the fact that a large part of India’s trade with Russia bypasses the dollar. Settlements in rupees, dirhams, or even yuan are chipping away at dollar hegemony.
For Washington, this is the unforgivable sin, and Trump, who is already annoyed by India’s sovereign trade postures, sees this as part of that defiance.
Still, I believe the ability of the U.S. or the Saudis to act directly against Reliance is limited. Jamnagar isn’t just India’s refinery; it is a critical node in global energy security, with BP and other stakeholders entangled in its ecosystem.
Europe, which depends heavily on Indian refined fuels after cutting Russian supplies, should resist any sanctions that undermine its energy balance. Though Trump is making efforts on Europe to stop buying Russian Oil. This is the GCC oil lobby speaking along with Big Oil & Shale in USA who seek to dominate European energy markets.
This makes outright punitive action unlikely, though whispers, targeted propaganda, and pressure campaigns will continue. The larger picture is that India is no longer bending to American bullying.