There's a 99% chance the U.S. face Bosnia and Herzegovina in the round of 32. Why not 100%?
Let me introduce you to "Option 47"...
It took me ~90 minutes to understand how FIFA is seeding the 3rd-place group qualifiers in the knockout stages.
It has nothing to do with how they stack up on the table of 3rd place teams—that only determines who stays in.
Then, the exact combination of the 8 groups that send 3rd place qualifiers through determines where each of those 8 teams is sent. There are 495 combinations possible (IE Groups ABCDEFGH represented, or groups ACEGHIJK, etc).
Prior to the tournament, FIFA determined matchups for each potential combination. In the 330 possible combinations where the Group B 3rd place team makes it, they are pitted against the Group D winner (the USA) 329 times. Only one time do they face someone else (Group E's winner): Option 47.
As of now, Option 47 (3rd place teams going through from groups B, E, G, H, I, J, K, and L) remains possible. If it happens, the US would face Senegal or Iraq, not Bosnia. This all begs the question of how FIFA generated these options...
BRING ON THE DISGRACE OF KANSAS CITY!
Algeria vs Austria
90 minutes of passive passing around at the back, 0-0 draw guarantees that both teams go through ... and nobody wants to win because they have to play Spain in R32!
Try explaining to a soccer casual that this is like a 16 beating a 1 in the NCAA Tournament, but that the World Cup has recent history of a team suffering a result like this and going on to win the whole thing.
Absolutely wild. Unbelievable result from the Blue Sharks.
I'm not sure much this truly matters, but my suspicion is that there were A LOT of curious, casual soccer viewers that tuned into tonight's match if only to avoid FOMO.
The USMNT did not disappoint those viewers. They're now hooked, at least for the remainder of this World Cup.