Kashmir Forecaster

Hi, I'm Mudasir, independent weather forecaster. Follow for accurate J&K weather updates, forecasts & alerts.

[Kashmir Forecaster @KForcaster95141]

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⚡⚠️However temperatures is expected drop again from 1 July as monsoonal moisture reaches Kashmir. As this moisture interacts with the valley's mountainous terrain it is likely to trigger widespread spells of rain and thunderstorms across the Kashmir Valley.

[Kashmir Forecaster @KForcaster95141]

🔴Temperatures across the Kashmir Valley are expected to rise by 3–4°C temporarily over the next three days, with the highest temperatures likely on 29–30 June. Maximum temperatures are expected to range between 33°C and 35°C across most parts of the valley.
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[Kashmir Forecaster @KForcaster95141]

⚠️⚡A strong thunderstorm cell developed over my area, bringing heavy downpours over the higher reaches along with intense rainfall in the plains.

[Kashmir Forecaster @KForcaster95141]

@aamir471711 A gradual rise in temperatures is expected over the next few days. However conditions are not expected to reach heatwave criteria. Maximum temperatures will generally hover around 30°C with some days recording slightly higher values.

[Kashmir Forecaster @KForcaster95141]

Monsoon Outlook

⚠️⚡Current global model guidance (GFS/ECMWF) indicates a favorable environment for further advancement of the Southwest Monsoon during the last week of June and the first week of July. Strong low level southwesterlies over the Arabian Sea along with

#moonsoon

[Kashmir Forecaster @KForcaster95141]

country possible by the first week of July if prevailing conditions persist.

◾️For Jammu & Kashmir, monsoonal moisture is expected to gradually increase towards early July.

[Kashmir Forecaster @KForcaster95141]

a well-established monsoon circulation, are expected to support the northward progression of monsoon currents.

As a result, the Southwest Monsoon is likely to advance into the remaining parts of North and Northwest India during this period, with near-complete coverage of the

[Kashmir Forecaster @KForcaster95141]

⚠️Various parts of srinagar facing waterloging due to intense spell.
Visuals from khanyar srinagar.

[Kashmir Forecaster @KForcaster95141]

⚠️Massive spell in northern parts of srinagar.

[Kashmir Forecaster @KForcaster95141]

⛈️Intense rain with hailstorm currently ongoing in habakadel srinagar.

[Kashmir Forecaster @KForcaster95141]

⚠️⚡As expected, convective cloud formations have developed over scattered parts of the Valley. Intense thunderstorm activity is being reported from some areas.

[Kashmir Forecaster @KForcaster95141]

@AgrimAnil29282 El Nino ❌ Demon✅ 🤣

[Kashmir Forecaster @KForcaster95141]

support, but sudden storms develop unexpectedly.

Overall, weather prediction remains challenging at present due to the Valley's highly dynamic atmosphere and terrain complexity and rapid variations in local weather conditions this occurs mostly in summers here.

[Kashmir Forecaster @KForcaster95141]

Weather Update

⚠️⚡Fresh convective cloud formations are expected to develop from the afternoon onwards today bringing rain, thunderstorms with isolated intense weather activity .

Expected coverage:
• Widespread spell: 50% probability
• Scattered spell: 70% probability

[Kashmir Forecaster @KForcaster95141]

These probabilities have been mentioned due to the highly variable atmospheric conditions prevailing over the Valley these days.

At times, weather models indicate all the necessary dynamics for a good spell, yet little or no activity occurs. On other occasions, models show weak

[Kashmir Forecaster @KForcaster95141]

⚡🌧Massive rainfall in southern parts currently .

[Kashmir Forecaster @KForcaster95141]

⚠️⚡Rain, thunderstorms with some intense showers is expected at several parts of valley during night hours.

[Kashmir Forecaster @KForcaster95141]

weather activity across the valley.

Farm Advisory:
Farmers are advised to carry out orchard spraying during the morning hours.

[Kashmir Forecaster @KForcaster95141]

Weather Update

⚡As we are aware, convective cloud formations have remained active in the valley during the past 3–4 days, bringing spells of rain, thunderstorms, and locally intense weather activities. According to the models, the wind convergence zone is expected to remain

[Kashmir Forecaster @KForcaster95141]

active over the region during the coming days as well, favouring continued cloud development and intermittent rain/thunderstorm activity on and off.

🔴Apart from this, a fresh Western Disturbance (WD) is expected to affect the region around 18 June, which may further enhance