Happy Columbus Day!
We can all be explorers!
Please everyone discover the right lane and get the heck out of the left lane so I can move to my destination.
Happy Columbus Day!
Now Move!
Fair. I didn’t stop listening because I wanted a guru. I stopped treating the model as information after the model’s own author (you) set a falsification test and then moved it.
June 2021 you said you’d call S2F invalidated if we didn’t hit $100k by December. We didn’t. Floor model missed Nov $98k and Dec $135K Then it became “still within 1 SD / 25k–100k / I study the reasoning.” That’s not assigning odds. That’s changing the bet after the roll.
Cory Klippsten said the same thing years ago: S2F isn’t a valid regression. Issuance is known and non-random. Price is not. High R² on a deterministic supply schedule vs a random variable is a chart, not a forecast. A nonsense “days between two arbitrary dates” model beat it on the stats. Scarcity is real. Fitting a line to scarcity and calling it a price path is not.
I still follow bulls and bears. I still size my own stack. I just don’t confuse a useful story about halving with a pricing engine that was supposed to put us at six figures in 2021 and a million in 2025.
Ideas and insights, agreed. The insight from S2F after 2021 is that demand — not the formula — decides the print.
Tick Tock Next Block we move on.
Not hating, just explaining. Been here a while and FYI I am wrong 50/50 as well.
How many people listened for advice or direction from his past preformance?
He was wrong and admitted it. (On video to boot)
He has a conference In a few months. Let’s see how many people attend.
This will be the true test of success for him. Not TA behind a screen shouting welcome for jumping back into the crypto verse.
We need Ben for sure and he admitted he was wrong. Let’s all move on shall we?
Tick Tock Next Block…
@PeterSchiff Procrastinating Pete! It’s going to continue to go up! You can’t stop this train, even with you tweeting about it for the past 17 years. You sound like a brokekn record/man.