Krystyna Marcinek, PhD

Associate policy researcher @RANDCorporation | International security | Russia | NATO | Future of warfare | Opinions my own, RTs≠endorsements

[Martin Tobal @MMartintobal]

New WP🚨🥸 We evaluate the effects of a REGULATION that reduced the provisions required for loans granted to WOMEN IN MEXICO. Financial inclusion widened at no cost for delinquency. Details (Spanish: another tweet): @djjaume_econ @AlejandroUBO @BereThh https://t.co/zZ89C3idH9

[Krystyna Marcinek, PhD @KMMarcinek]

@p_zuchowski @SecBlinken @sikorskiradek Świetna wiadomość! Napisałam tekst na ten temat kilka tygodni temu: https://t.co/8eT6OvZdwz

[Krystyna Marcinek, PhD @KMMarcinek]

Mearsheimer is doubling down on “NATO threat” argument. Meanwhile Russia has not responded to Finland and Sweden’s NATO accession application and gutted the units to vis-a-vis the Baltics and Finland. Putin’s problem with independent Ukraine is based on identity, not security.

[Isaac Chotiner @IChotiner]

New Interview: I did a follow-up with John Mearsheimer on why he thinks Putin was truthful about his motives for invading Ukraine, why Putin isn’t trying to recreate a Russian empire, & why Mearsheimer doesn’t want to discuss his meeting with Viktor Orbán https://t.co/GRq0arfHNp

[U.S. Marines @USMC]

Happy Birthday, Marines!

For 247 years, Marines have fought in any clime and place to defend our nation. Today, we reflect on the legacy of our Corps, and rededicate ourselves to fighting and winning the battles that lie ahead. #SemperFi

Full Video ⬇️
https://t.co/YPV7GIvUNs

[Krystyna Marcinek, PhD @KMMarcinek]

@Helmus I’m more worried about policies than the exodus.People often say they will give up something, yet they don’t. From emigrating to another country after elections to giving up sweets, we rarely follow through on such promises. So I wonder how many people will actually leave Twitter

[RAND @RANDCorporation]

Russia's nuclear saber-rattling has shifted the stakes of the war, says @PardeeRAND's @KMMarcinek.

"Now, the survival of the global nuclear nonproliferation regime is at stake." https://t.co/LZE4OD15rS

[Krystyna Marcinek, PhD @KMMarcinek]

Putin doesn’t need off-ramps. We was beating his people into submission for the past 20 years; he’ll do just fine with the milbloggers. Ultimately it’s his decision whether he wants to be remembered as a visionary betrayed by lying generals or as a madman. 7/7

[Krystyna Marcinek, PhD @KMMarcinek]

In my latest commentary I draw attention to increasing radicalization of Russian narratives about the war and what it means for the risk of nuclear escalation. 🧵1/7

[TheHillOpinion @TheHillOpinion]

Nuclear weapons and Putin’s ‘holy war’ https://t.co/DRrDJs6d8Q

[Krystyna Marcinek, PhD @KMMarcinek]

As much as Putin is backing himself into a corner, he’s backing the West into one as well. ‘Escalate to deescalate’ won’t work because the West will have to punish such behavior enough to dissuade others from pulling the same move in the future. 6/7

[RAND @RANDCorporation]

"Russia's actions have, above all, ensured that the Russia-Ukraine war is no longer just about Ukraine, Ukrainian democracy, or where the borders in Eastern Europe should lie. Indeed, the threat is far greater." https://t.co/VsTaYbIyqJ

[Krystyna Marcinek, PhD @KMMarcinek]

@MMazarr They can create windows of opportunity, but they certainly have expiration date.

[Krystyna Marcinek, PhD @KMMarcinek]

@MDomanskaOSW I’m not sure how far off these response rates are from the numbers for neutral topic surveys (inquired but no response). Nevertheless, @RusFieldGroup surveys are a very interesting read: the lowest support for the war in groups that should be the key target for mobilization.

[Krystyna Marcinek, PhD @KMMarcinek]

@YudinGreg @RusFieldGroup VCIOM does publish it. I wonder how far off these number are from the response rate of neutral topic surveys. Inquired but haven’t gotten any response.

[Krystyna Marcinek, PhD @KMMarcinek]

@mswierczynski1 Ale "ura" jakoś tak z amerykańskim akcentem. Szpion? :)

[Krystyna Marcinek, PhD @KMMarcinek]

@konrad_muzyka Oj tam bez treningu… Była inspekcja, był trening, sprawa zamknięta. Instruktorzy bez trwogi przez lufami karabinów.

[Mariusz Cielma @MariuszCielma]

Siergiej Szojgu na inspekcji zajęć z rezerwistami w Zachodnim Okręgu Wojskowym. Tych akurat szkolą.

[Krystyna Marcinek, PhD @KMMarcinek]

In economic language, combat effectiveness is a production function. It’s not quality or quantity but the optimal mix. The key question is the substitution rate between the two. Good thread.

[Christopher M. Dougherty @C_M_Dougherty]

Russia's mobilization vs. Ukraine's increasingly Western-equipped force could be the nearest thing to an empirical case study in the long-running dispute between capability/quality and capacity/quantity in defense strategy and force planning. 1/25