7/ The takeaway:
Not 10k. Not 20k. Not even 30k.
If the pattern holds, the next bear market bottom is likely in the low 40s.
Bitcoin is maturing. The numbers don’t lie.
1/ Bitcoin’s cycles are compressing faster than most people realize. Look at the actual top-to-bottom ratios:
2013: 7.60 2017: 6.23 2021: 4.42 2025 (proj): ~3.00
Volatility is dying.
6/ This model doesn’t predict tops. It doesn’t predict timing. It simply shows that Bitcoin’s drawdowns are shrinking every cycle.
And the chart makes it obvious.