InvestoGuru

Cryptocurrency Investor & Trader

[InvestoGuru @Kai__BTC]

@LoveridgeFinley @KillaXBT Diminishing returns as each cycle progresses

[InvestoGuru @Kai__BTC]

@KillaXBT The gap levels are real whether or not the gap still exists. Price was discovered there and markets revisit discovery zones. Same reason old weekly highs from years ago still get tagged. Memory's in the price, not the product.

[InvestoGuru @Kai__BTC]

@KillaXBT That timing lines up with NFP week pretty often too, since it's usually the first Friday of the month. A recurring technical pivot landing in the same window as the biggest macro print of the month isn't nothing. Might be part of why it keeps showing up.

[InvestoGuru @Kai__BTC]

$BTC

Every bounce off 58K stalls before it even gets back to 61K. Sellers still control the top of the range. Buyers still control the bottom.

Nobody's won this yet.

[InvestoGuru @Kai__BTC]

@KillaXBT Gold’s up about 46% over the past year and sitting 13% off its high. BTC’s down over 50% from October. Same thesis, very different results so far. But I do agree.

[InvestoGuru @Kai__BTC]

@KillaXBT Long side already took ~$2.5B in liquidations this week. If shorts get lured in next like you’re saying, good to see whether that squeeze ends up bigger than the flush that just happened.

[InvestoGuru @Kai__BTC]

Jamie Dimon and the ABA are pushing back on the Clarity Act provisions that would let crypto firms operate like banks without the same consumer protection requirements.

Regulatory clarity has been priced as a tailwind all year. Organized banking-lobby pushback is a new variable that wasn't in most people's base case three months ago.

[InvestoGuru @Kai__BTC]

$MSTR sold 32 BTC ($2.5M) earlier this month. Small in size, but it's the first time the company has been a net seller instead of a buyer since it started accumulating.

The dollar amount doesn't matter. The behavior change does, it's the kind of thing that gets revisited if the stock keeps sliding.

[InvestoGuru @Kai__BTC]

@AshCrypto Worth adding: despite the across-the-board carnage, BTC dominance actually rose to 58.74% today while OTHERS.D fell to 8.02%. The flush hit alts harder than BTC in relative terms — reads more like a leverage/altcoin washout than BTC-specific capitulation.

[InvestoGuru @Kai__BTC]

@TedPillows Dominance is rising on this reclaim while alts lag, that's flight-to-quality, not the broad risk-on behavior you'd expect from a relief rally. Worth tracking whether that flips before the weekly close.

[InvestoGuru @Kai__BTC]

$BTC at $60.4K, +0.55% today, a small green print after touching the high-$58Ks earlier this week.

One green day doesn't reverse a multi-week downtrend. Worth seeing if it holds above $60K into the close before reading anything into it.

[InvestoGuru @Kai__BTC]

This cycle's ATH ($126.2K, Oct 2025) came ~18 months after the April 2024 halving.

2021 cycle: ATH hit ~18 months after the May 2020 halving.

2017 cycle: ATH hit ~17 months after the July 2016 halving.

Three cycles in a row, same 17-18 month window for the top. Worth tracking whether the post-top decay also rhymes on timing, not just the peak.

[InvestoGuru @Kai__BTC]

$MSTR common stock just hit a 52-week low. STRC preferred sliding toward a record low.

The market is starting to price real correlation risk between Strategy's balance sheet and BTC, not just recycled FUD.

Worth tracking whether forced-selling risk becomes an actual BTC overhang or stays a rumor that never materializes.

[InvestoGuru @Kai__BTC]

$BTC

Fear & Greed hit single digits this month. Levels like that have historically only shown up around genuine capitulation, not routine pullbacks.

Doesn't mean the bottom is in. It does mean a large share of leveraged longs have already been flushed, which lines up with troughs more often than continuations.

Watching how price behaves on the next bounce attempt.

[InvestoGuru @Kai__BTC]

@KillaXBT Lines up with sentiment data too. Fear & Greed hit single digits this month, levels historically rare outside genuine capitulation events. On-chain loss realization and crowd sentiment confirming the same read isn't that common.

[InvestoGuru @Kai__BTC]

@KillaXBT Worth stacking the halving clock on this too. This cycle's ATH hit 18 months after the April 2024 halving, same timing as 2021 (18mo) and 2017 (17mo) post-halving.
Two independent signals lining up is more interesting than either alone.

[InvestoGuru @Kai__BTC]

$10.6B in quarterly $BTC options expired today. ETF outflows running ~$469M into the print.

Expiries this size usually pin price near max pain going in, then release into a directional move once the open interest clears.

Next 24-48 hours is the tell on which way that move goes.

[InvestoGuru @Kai__BTC]

BTC is ~53% off the October 2025 high of $126.2K

For reference: 2018 bottomed around 84% off the prior high, roughly 12 months after the top. 2022 bottomed around 77% off on a similar timeline.

We're 8 months past this cycle's top. If depth/timing rhymes, the window for a bottom forming is roughly now through Q4 2026.

Not a prediction. A reference point.

[InvestoGuru @Kai__BTC]

@TedPillows Ethereum is on its road to zero...

BTC is king.