Typical macro cycle turns are slow to start, but they all end in recession.
The current modest rise in unemployment is about median for a year in since YC inversion compared to post-war cycles. But it’s usually in this time frame where things start to get interesting:
@Ten_Bagger 🙏 Vid tillfälle får gärna ge din syn på makrodata, som i min värld förbättrades mellan oktober 2022 till q2 2023 när börserna steg, men har nu fallit tillbaka betydligt. T ex PMI Services & tillverkning för de flesta stora ekonomier, Kina, IFO, ZEW, NAHB, lumber, koppar etc.
@Ten_Bagger Temperatures may increase to a level not experienced since the mid-Pliocene, around 3 million years ago. At that time, mean global temperatures were about 2–4 °C warmer than pre-industrial temperatures, and the global mean sea level was 25m higher
https://t.co/3uKhJEKXKp
@Ten_Bagger Dokumentären "När arterna dör ut":
"90% of all life on earth was wiped out 250 million years ago due to global warming from greenhouse gases emitted by volcanos in Sibiria." https://t.co/tfckcZ2WbK
@Ten_Bagger Några fler bidrag:
@elonmusk "If we don’t succeed with clime change action it will cause more displaysment and destruction than all the wars in history combined. Its the dumbest experiment in history. 97% of scientists believe in this case."
https://t.co/lWbzZngH6q
@Ten_Bagger In the view of the Swedish CB:
"(...) it is not the Riksbank’s role to facilitate for individual participants who have taken excessive risks."
https://t.co/luEEbADfdR
@JackFarley96@PMehrling @MacrobondF on the de-dollarisation:
"As our chart of IMF data shows, the dollar remains by far the main currency of choice, but its share has dropped to 58 percent from 70 percent over the past 20 years."
https://t.co/OibllZMXoG
The Regional Bank problems don't seem to be going away. Today...
PacWest $PACW: -29%
Metropolitan Bank $MCB: -27%
Western Alliance $WAL: -25%
HomeStreet $HMST: -16%
Zions $ZION: -11%
First Foundation $FFWM: -10%
Comerica $CMA: -9%
Keycorp $KEY: -8%
@tradewithmrp@Pontus91 Kort bank.
-Man måste ge allt högre ränta på insättningar
-Exponering mot kommersiella fastigheter
-Bank tenderar att gå dåligt när ekonomin faller (inte än)
-Ökande CDS för banker
-Etc
@ValueEye@tradewithmrp Kan inte bolaget men när jag tittar i Börsdata ser det ut som att omsättningen ökar konsekvent QoQ men bolaget har aldrig gått med vinst. Vad jag förstår från Minervini, Peter Lynch och Warren Buffett är att man vill investera i bolag som konsekvent ökar vinsten.