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@geoffreyyork@zebalon_CULE Things move fast. Once the (highly idea takes hold that “SA is missing 2 out of 3 Covid deaths” it will be hard to roll back. Take a critical look at the weekly deaths report. The calculations and interpretation should be contested
@geoffreyyork@zebalon_CULE Geoff, you should note that people like Tom Moultrie are happily rewriting stories that falsely equate total excess deaths to Covid deaths. The SAMRC report (that he wrote!) does NOT do that
@geoffreyyork@zebalon_CULE Come on, Geoff. Be honest here. If Tom retweets a story about his report (without any comment or clarification), how are we to interpret that? Here’s Tom’s own reply 👇
@peter_castleden@desakov Peter, in some cases, excess mortality in the SAMRC is calculated not off the lower bound forecast, but an even lower constructed baseline. Look at this week’s numbers in the report for Buffalo City
@rcr_pereira@geoffreyyork It’s not numbers “above the forecast”. They’ve constructed new baselines for 2020, some of which are below the lower bound of the forecast (arguing, for example, that flu deaths are lower this year). So flu didn’t spread, but Covid did? Seems strange
@tomtom_m@rcr_pereira@geoffreyyork You’ve argued that other natural deaths are down (hence lower baseline) due to lockdown...how do you know that? Flu didn’t spread - but Covid quite evidently did?
@tomtom_m@rcr_pereira@geoffreyyork why does Joburg have a baseline that’s on the expected line, CPT’s baseline is on the lower bound; and Buffalo C is below it? Understand the methodology - but how is that logical?
@tomtom_m@rcr_pereira So let my understand you: flu didn’t spread, but Covid did? And people didn’t die because they were too scared to go to hospital for treatments and heart attacks?
@IsaahMhlanga@tito_mboweni We study and work with SWFs worldwide, and you’re 100% correct. If you run twin deficits, it’s not “wealth” fund...it’s debt and/or a bank