カピット

r＞g⏳コア：日本株、REIT、インフラ
サテライト:米国株、新興国株、先進国債券🌍氷河期🧊CoastFIRE💻️DBEng🤖需給戦略＆イールドハント🐳🌊🕰️≒💰️

[カピット @Kapihouse]

世界的金利上昇で低迷中も引続きJ−REIT、インフラファンド中心の運用。外国株比率を少し上げて個人的に現金比率は過去最低水準🐳🌊
#マネーフォワードME #ポートフォリオ管理

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Trump Says "We Are Low Keying It" With Iran As Options For Walking Away Have Drastically Narrowed https://t.co/e2oSDfSCHi

[Shen @shenmacro]

長期の貸出約定平均金利はまだ企業の予想物価上昇率に追い付かれていない（＝実質銀行借入金利はまだマイナス）し、そもそも企業はそんなに銀行借入れに依存していないから、この程度の利上げでは設備投資にブレーキがかからない、と元日銀調査統計局長の関根氏。

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Wall Street is paying less attention to the Magnificent 7:

Monthly mentions of the "Magnificent Seven" across news stories on the Bloomberg terminal are down to ~1,400, near the lowest since Q4 2023.

This marks a -70% decline from the Q1 2024 peak of ~4,300 mentions, which came shortly after the term was introduced in 2023.

A similar pattern occurred with the "FANG" and later "FAANG" labels, originally referring to Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google before Apple was added.

Monthly mentions of "FANG" and "FAANG" surged to a record ~2,800 in Q4 2018.

Subsequently, they dropped -82%, to just ~500 mentions by early 2020.

Investor attention has shifted away from the Mag 7.

[ウォール・ストリート・ジャーナル日本版 @WSJJapan]

円安を食い止められるのは日銀だけ

幸い、日銀が取るべき行動は明確だ。市場参加者の多くが予想するように、FRBが9月中旬に動けば、その道筋はさらに明らかになる。その場合、その数日後に決定会合を控える日銀は、追随せざるを得ないだろう。
https://t.co/KwC0l1CeZr

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Hedge funds are rapidly unwinding their bearish Yen bets following US-Japan FX intervention:

Leveraged funds cut their net short Yen positions by -74,440 contracts, to 63,600 contracts, over the 5 weeks ending August 4th, according to CFTC data.

This was one of the sharpest reductions in short positioning since the 2008 Financial Crisis.

At the end of June, leveraged funds held 138,000 net short contracts, the largest short position since 2007.

This comes as Japanese authorities purchased ~$85 billion worth of Yen between July 30th and 31st to prop up the currency, the largest 2-day currency intervention since 2011, when Japan intervened in the aftermath of the tsunami that caused the Fukushima nuclear disaster.

This also marked the first coordinated action between Japan and the US in 15 years, after the Yen weakened to its lowest since 1986.

Historic intervention is changing FX market dynamics.

[ブルームバーグニュース @BloombergJapan]

米住宅ローン最大手UWM株、過去最大の下落－損失計上で初の配当停止 https://t.co/01Ra8FisGQ

[味ポン @ajipondu]

あと日本の自動車輸出もそろそろどげんかせんといかんのじゃないスカネ・・・

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump has been floating the idea privately to senior aides that he's willing to "walk away" from the Iran War without a nuclear deal should Iran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, per WSJ.

Details include:

1. This objective reportedly became "more difficult" yesterday when Iran insisted on its highest price yet for reopening the Strait of Hormuz

2. Iran is now seeking billions of dollars in US payments, the removal of US troops from the region, among other things to reopen Hormuz

3. US officials said Trump is patient and expected to ride out the latest developments as long as gas prices remain where they are

4. Trump has reportedly told senior aides that Iran is likely unable to revive its nuclear work during his presidency

The Iran War negotiations are becoming increasingly complicated.

[日本経済新聞 電子版（日経電子版） @nikkei]

３メガ銀、外貨の資金余力198兆円に　中東情勢や対米投資に備え
https://t.co/pqDVMuQt7y

[日本経済新聞 電子版（日経電子版） @nikkei]

投機勢の円売り幅、為替介入後に7割減　円高マグマ弱まる
https://t.co/jbhsEkplsi

[宮嶋 貴之／エコノミスト @TMiyajima1115]

日銀より6月分の消費活動指数が公表されました。家計調査同様に前月比で大幅マイナスという結果となりました。天候不順の影響が大きかったと見られます。ただ前年同月比で見れば、プラス傾向が続いていると見られますので、消費活動指数は緩やかに持ち直していると評価されると思います。

2Qの仕上がりはかなり高くなっておりますので、再来週のGDPの結果は高めの伸びになると予想されます。

[ブルームバーグニュース @BloombergJapan]

7月末外貨準備高は前月比横ばい､協調介入の影響は反映されず－財務省 https://t.co/HhheEpOLrq

[日経電子版 ビジネス @nikkei_business]

ニトリHD純利益2%減　4〜6月、国内既存店の客数減少
https://t.co/fygEZWnKWI

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Global Food Prices Hit Three-Year High As War, Chokepoint Chaos And El Nino Spark Perfect Storm https://t.co/StcNuAvPUs

[Yuto Haga ⚽️ @Yuto_Headline]

*みずほ総研、円のフェアバリューを対ドル162円と予想ー期待インフレ上昇で＝日経

*MIZUHO SEES YEN FAIR VALUE AT 162/$ AS INFLATION WEIGHS IN: NIKKEI

[共同通信公式 @kyodo_official]

食料自給率、過去最低37％ － 25年度、コメ消費減響く
https://t.co/G3MPQ8B5lQ

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is reportedly prepared to support a rate hike in September, per FT

[日本経済新聞 電子版（日経電子版） @nikkei]

【日経特報】韓国と台湾の輸出額ともに初の日本超え　26年上期、AI特需の恩恵で差
https://t.co/jE84p93EM9

[47NEWS @47news_official]

【速報】25年度の食料自給率過去最低と農水省
https://t.co/6PWqWHuHnA

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US economy unexpectedly loses -23,000 jobs in July, well below expectations of +85,000.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below expectations of 4.2%.

June's jobs number was also revised down by -37,000 jobs.

This marks the 3rd biggest monthly job loss since the pandemic in 2020.