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As everyone watches the SpaceX IPO today, its worth remembering this advice from Buffett
"The idea that a newly issued security (IPO)—brought to market at a time of the seller's choosing and surrounded by massive hype—is the single best bargain among thousands of global businesses is absolute nonsense.
When an offering carries a ridiculous 7% commission just to incentivize salespeople, it simply cannot be the most attractive investment available.
While people easily get caught up in the excitement of a new launch, look at the reality: you have thousands of existing public companies whose prices are set by a natural auction market, free from aggressive promotion or hidden fees.
It makes no sense to buy a security precisely when an insider decides the timing is perfect to sell. Frankly, it isn't worth spending five seconds thinking about IPOs."
- Warren Buffett
🚨 IMPORTANT UPDATE
Bitcoin just entered the accumulation zone.
This is where I said I would start buying heavily.
But most people still don’t understand what it means.
Accumulation starts before the bottom.
Days from market cycle top → bottom:
2012: 405 days
2016: 362 days
2020: 376 days
We still haven’t reached the historical timing zone for the final bottom.
Based on cycle timing, the highest-probability window is still:
October–November 2026.
That matters more than any single level on your chart.
Most traders only think in price:
“I’ll buy at X.”
I don’t play that game.
The $60K range is where I start accumulating aggressively.
Autumn is where I expect the final bottom to form.
And this is the part most people get wrong.
They wait for the perfect bottom.
Then when it comes, they are too scared to buy.
Back in October, when Bitcoin was around $120K, I said I’d be a strong buyer near $60K.
People laughed.
Sentiment was euphoric:
“BTC will never go below $100K again.”
Now we’re here. Again.
And I’m doing exactly what I said I would do.
I’m accumulating.
But I’m not calling the final bottom yet.
There’s still one signal missing:
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss.
Every Bitcoin bottom happened when NUPL entered the capitulation zone:
2018. COVID. 2022.
We’re not there yet.
So my plan is simple:
$60K range: accumulate heavily.
Autumn: watch for the final bottom.
NUPL blue zone: full confirmation.
When the final bottom signal appears, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do.
Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000.
The next call will be even more important.
Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
President Trump attends Madison Square Garden for Game 3 of the NBA Finals to cheer on his hometown team — but as Trump was shown on the jumbotron during the national anthem, the crowd erupted in loud booing. https://t.co/uQCepUP70B
Breaking: Kennedy Center staff is now being ordered to remove Trump’s name from the building. The removal of his name could happen within hours or days. As I found earlier today, his name is even on the center’s buses.