Blake Keating

Managing Director @SBSILimited

[Angus Taylor MP @AngusTaylorMP]

Congratulations to Tony Abbott on his election as Federal President of the Liberal Party. As a former Prime Minister and one of our most successful Opposition Leaders, Tony’s experience and stewardship gives our party the strongest opportunity to rebuild, renew and fight this terrible Labor Government.

[Tony Abbott @HonTonyAbbott]

Congratulations to Angus Taylor on becoming the 17th leader of the Liberal Party.

Our party is at a low ebb but Angus is just the man to bring us back to government.

His declared mission to restore Australians’ standard of living and protect our way of life is exactly what our country needs right now.

All Liberal supporters now need to rally round the leader.

His success is our success and the long term success of our country.

For all the Liberal Party’s recent failings it remains the best hope of better government for Australia.

[Blake Keating @KeatingBlake]

Last Thursday marked an important milestone as I had the privilege, in my capacity as Managing Director of the @SBSILimited, to launch this new conservative force at the Parliament of New South Wales.

The Sir Bertram Stevens Institute has started its journey. This is the beginning of something significant. #auspol #nswpol

[Sir Bertram Stevens Institute @SBSILimited]

A packed house. Powerful speeches. A new conservative force begins.

On Thursday night we officially launched the Sir Bertram Stevens Institute at the Parliament of New South Wales.

With inspiring addresses from the @HonTonyAbbott AC, the Hon @AngusTaylorMP, the Hon Anthony Roberts MP, and the Hon Rachel Merton MLC, our launch embodied the values that guide us: Leadership. Courage. Conviction.

The energy in the room was undeniable – a gathering of leaders, thinkers, and community members committed to shaping a better future for NSW and Australia.

This is just the beginning. Join us as we carry forward Sir Bertram Stevens’ legacy with strength and purpose.

https://t.co/jrAVa5b720

#auspol #nswpol

[Tony Abbott @HonTonyAbbott]

I’m mourning the shocking death of Charlie Kirk. He championed the pursuit of open debate and intellectual freedom in places of education, and did so with great courage. My prayers are for his wife and children at this dire time.

[Australian Liberal Students' Federation @ALSF]

📸 Announcing the 2025/26 ALSF Executive

The Australian Liberal Students’ Federation is pleased to introduce its newly elected Executive following our Annual General Meeting held in Perth, Western Australia - hosted by @UWALC

🇦🇺 The 2025/26 ALSF Executive:
President – Cooper Bates
Vice-President – Abbey Dawson
Secretary – Ciara Gannon
Treasurer – Krish Nair
Publications Officer – Ashley Young
Policy Director – Lucas Lee
Club Development Officer – Blake Barisani

Immediate Past President – Daniel Swane

State Representatives:
WA – Aaron Seth
SA – Adrian Niculescu
VIC – Charlie Ryan
TAS – Harrison Grafanakis
NSW – Chelsea Burgess-Hannon

This Executive takes office at a time of renewed energy and ambition for the Federation. Over the coming year, we will focus on expanding our presence across Australian campuses, contesting student elections, and growing the liberal student movement from the ground up.

The ALSF will continue to advocate for academic freedom and be a serious alternative to the hard-left activism that dominates many student unions.

#auspol

[Blake Keating @KeatingBlake]

The Liberal Party doesn’t need another review. It needs to know what it stands for. I’ve written in the @SpectatorOz on why conviction still matters — and why the “Sensible Centre” is a dead end. Check it out 👇

[The Spectator Australia @SpectatorOz]

We’re not dealing with a campaign failure. We are confronting a party-wide identity crisis – and responding to it with vague gestures and empty words.

You don’t rebuild by talking in clichés about ‘diversity’, ‘changing demographics’ and ‘modernisation’.
https://t.co/IWQ6L22T6F

[Liberal Party @LiberalAus]

What a weird thing to lie about?

[Peter Dutton @Hon_PeterDutton]

The budget confirms it: Anthony Albanese is bringing in 1.8 million new migrants over five years — despite not building a single additional home under Labor's policy.

[Senator Andrew Bragg @ajamesbragg]

Congratulations to Labor for announcing the same housing policy 4 times without building 1 new house. It’s a record.

[Blake Keating @KeatingBlake]

Fantastic afternoon out on the hustings for Laurence Antcliff for Paterson!

The horns were blaring, spirits were high, and the message was clear:

It’s time to give Albo the boot and get Paterson and Australia back on track!

#auspol #LiberalforPaterson

[Blake Keating @KeatingBlake]

📊 Port Macquarie by-election - Results 📊

✅ First preference count remains unchanged – 37,443 votes counted (59.12% of enrolled voters).

🔹 Two-Candidate Preferred (2PP) Update:
🟩 Sean Gleeson (NAT) – 47.8% (13,437 votes)
🟦 Robert Dwyer (LIB) – 52.2% (14,654 votes)
🔸 Exhausted ballots: 7,944

📢 Dwyer continues to strengthen his lead, with the latest update pushing the Liberal margin further out of reach for the Nationals.

🔹 Votes counted so far (2PP): 59.12% of enrolled voters (63,318).

🛑 The NSW Electoral Commission has concluded counting for the night, with no further results to be reported until at least Sunday.

🔹 Projection: Based on the results so far, I continue to project that Robert Dwyer will be elected as the next Member for Port Macquarie in the NSW Legislative Assembly.

🙏 Thanks to everyone who followed along with today’s count. More updates to come as the final votes are counted.

#PortMacquarieVotes #NSWpol #auspol

[Blake Keating @KeatingBlake]

📢 Port Macquarie by-election 📢

My projection:

🟦 Robert Dwyer (LIB) Elected ✅ as the new Member for Port Macquarie in the NSW Legislative Assembly.

The Nationals needed a significant shift from the polling day results to the pre-poll results in order to close the gap on the Liberals. That shift has not happened.

🔹 On polling day, the Nationals remained competitive but did not establish a strong enough position despite the swing against the Liberals.

🔹 The pre-poll results, which were their last chance to gain ground, have instead mirrored the patterns of polling day – leaving the Liberals in front.

🔹 The Nationals required both a stronger first preference showing from pre-polling and a favourable shift in the two-party preferred (2PP) count. Neither of those conditions materialised.

With remaining pre-polling places unlikely to be dramatically different and postal votes historically favouring the Liberals, it is clear that Robert Dwyer has retained Port Macquarie for the Liberal Party.

#PortMacquarieVotes #NSWpol #auspol

[Blake Keating @KeatingBlake]

📊 Port Macquarie by-election - Results 📊

✅ First preference count remains unchanged – 37,451 votes counted (59.13% of enrolled voters).

📢 Port Macquarie - Early Voting Centre has reported TPP

🔹 Two-Candidate Preferred (2PP) Update: 🟩 Sean Gleeson (NAT) – 49% (11,170 votes)
🟦 Robert Dwyer (LIB) – 51% (11,641 votes)
🔸 Exhausted ballots: 6,801

📢 The Liberals maintain their lead in the 2PP count, probably to a place that the Nationals can not overcome.

🔹 Port Macquarie - Early Voting Centre Breakdown (4,419 votes counted):
🟩 Sean Gleeson (NAT) – 48.6% (1,706 votes)
🟦 Robert Dwyer (LIB) – 51.4% (1,610 votes)
🔸 Exhausted ballots: 914

🔹 Votes counted so far (2PP): 48.73% of enrolled voters (63,318).

#PortMacquarieVotes #NSWpol #auspol

[Blake Keating @KeatingBlake]

📊 Port Macquarie by-election - Results 📊

✅ First preference count updated – 37,451 votes counted (59.13% of enrolled voters).

📢 Pre-poll Port Macquarie Central has now reported.

🔹 First Preference Results:
🟩 Sean Gleeson (NAT) – 31.18% (11,238 votes)
🟦 Robert Dwyer (LIB) – 34.15% (12,310 votes)
🟨 Breelin Coetzer (LP) – 3.25% (1,172 votes)
🌿 Megan Mathew (LCP) – 7.89% (2,843 votes)
♻️ Stuart Watson (GRN) – 10.69% (3,854 votes)
⚪ Warwick Yonge (IND) – 12.83% (4,626 votes)

🔹 Two-Candidate Preferred (2PP) Update:
🟩 Sean Gleeson (NAT) – 48.5% (9,464 votes)
🟦 Robert Dwyer (LIB) – 51.5% (10,031 votes)
🔸 Exhausted ballots: 5,887

📢 The Liberals continue to hold their lead in the two-candidate preferred count, but the race remains tight as counting continues.

🔹 Votes counted so far (2PP): 41.74% of enrolled voters (63,318).

#PortMacquarieVotes #NSWpol #auspol

[Blake Keating @KeatingBlake]

📊 Port Macquarie by-election - Results 📊

✅ First preference count remains unchanged – 30,845 votes counted (48.71% of enrolled voters).

🔹 Two-Candidate Preferred (2PP) Update:
🟩 Sean Gleeson (NAT) – 48.5% (9,464 votes)
🟦 Robert Dwyer (LIB) – 51.5% (10,031 votes)
🔸 Exhausted ballots: 5,887

📢 The Liberals maintain their lead, but the margin remains close.

🔹 Votes counted so far (2PP): 41.74% of enrolled voters (63,318).

#PortMacquarieVotes #NSWpol #auspol

[Blake Keating @KeatingBlake]

📢 Port Macquarie by-election - Update 📢

As we hit 9PM, the Port Macquarie by-election remains on a knife’s edge, with the two-party preferred (2PP) count continuing to fluctuate before settling into an exceptionally close margin.

Throughout the night, both major parties have traded the lead, and with the Liberals now holding a narrow advantage at 51.6% to the Nationals' 48.4%, the final outcome is still far from clear, especially with pre-poll votes still being counted and postal ballots to come.

🔹 First preference votes counted so far:

🟦 Robert Dwyer (LIB) – 32.99% (9,770 votes)
🟩 Sean Gleeson (NAT) – 31.48% (9,321 votes)
⚪ Warwick Yonge (IND) – 12.64% (3,742 votes)
♻️ Stuart Watson (GRN) – 10.99% (3,253 votes)
🌿 Megan Mathew (LCP) – 8.42% (2,493 votes)
🟨 Breelin Coetzer (LP) – 3.49% (1,032 votes)

🔹 Two-Candidate Preferred (2PP):

🟩 Sean Gleeson (NAT) – 48.4% (8,810 votes)
🟦 Robert Dwyer (LIB) – 51.6% (9,396 votes)
��� Exhausted ballots: 5,546

Where the race stands:

🔹 Remaining pre-poll votes will be crucial - if they do not deliver a substantial shift in first preferences, it is highly unlikely that we will know the winner tonight.

🔹 Postal ballots could be decisive, but they will take days—if not weeks—to finalise.

🔹 Warwick Yonge’s strong 12.64% showing could be a major factor. The Nationals may be regretting their decision to drop him as their candidate, as his support appears to have drawn votes away from them.

🔹 If the Liberals narrowly win, the Nationals’ handling of Yonge may very well be the reason they lose this seat.

🔹 High exhaustion rate in preference counting – Now at 5,546 ballots, this reflects both the absence of Labor and NSW’s optional preferential voting system. Many voters chose not to allocate preferences, leading to a high exhaustion rate.

🔹 The absence of Labor has splintered the left-leaning vote—with Legalise Cannabis, the Greens, and even potentially Warwick Yonge absorbing what would have otherwise been Labor’s support.

This is a remarkable shift from the 2023 NSW state election, where the Liberals held Port Macquarie with 60.8% to the Nationals' 39.2% in 2PP. Now, the Nationals have significantly closed the gap, but whether they can push past the Liberals remains uncertain.

With pre-poll votes still being counted and postal votes yet to be factored in, this by-election remains too close to call.

#PortMacquarieVotes #NSWpol #auspol

[Blake Keating @KeatingBlake]

📊 Port Macquarie by-election - Results 📊

✅ First preference count remains unchanged – 30,844 votes counted (48.71% of enrolled voters).

🔹 Two-Candidate Preferred (2PP) Update:
🟩 Sean Gleeson (NAT) – 48.4% (8,810 votes)
🟦 Robert Dwyer (LIB) – 51.6% (9,396 votes)
🔸 Exhausted ballots: 5,546

📢 The Liberals have slightly extended their lead, but the contest remains extremely tight.

🔹 Votes counted so far (2PP): 39.07% of enrolled voters (63,318).

#PortMacquarieVotes #NSWpol #auspol

[Blake Keating @KeatingBlake]

📊 Port Macquarie by-election - Results 📊

✅ First preference count remains unchanged – 30,844 votes counted (48.71% of enrolled voters).

🔹 Two-Candidate Preferred (2PP) Update:
🟩 Sean Gleeson (NAT) – 48.5% (8,066 votes)
🟦 Robert Dwyer (LIB) – 51.5% (8,581 votes)
🔸 Exhausted ballots: 5,022

📢 The Liberals have slightly extended their lead, but the race remains incredibly tight.

🔹 Votes counted so far (2PP): 35.60% of enrolled voters (63,318).

#PortMacquarieVotes #NSWpol #auspol

[Blake Keating @KeatingBlake]

📊 Port Macquarie by-election - Results 📊

✅ First preference count updated – 30,844 votes counted (48.71% of enrolled voters).

🔹 First Preference Results:
🟩 Sean Gleeson (NAT) – 31.48% (9,321 votes)
🟦 Robert Dwyer (LIB) – 32.99% (9,770 votes)
🟨 Breelin Coetzer (LP) – 3.49% (1,032 votes)
🌿 Megan Mathew (LCP) – 8.42% (2,493 votes)
♻️ Stuart Watson (GRN) – 10.99% (3,253 votes)
⚪ Warwick Yonge (IND) – 12.64% (3,742 votes)

🔹 Total formal votes: 29,611
❌ Informal votes: 1,233 (4.00%)

TPP Unchanged from last update.

#PortMacquarieVotes #NSWpol #auspol

[Blake Keating @KeatingBlake]

📊 Port Macquarie by-election - Results 📊

✅ First preference count remains unchanged at 29,234 votes counted.

🔹 Two-Candidate Preferred (2PP) Update:
🟩 Sean Gleeson (NAT) – 49.1% (7,530 votes)
🟦 Robert Dwyer (LIB) – 50.9% (7,820 votes)
🔸 Exhausted ballots: 4,726

📢 The Liberals extend their lead slightly in the 2PP count, but the race remains close.

🔹 Votes counted so far (2PP): 33.05% of enrolled voters (63,318).

#PortMacquarieVotes #NSWpol #auspol