Kegs 🇺🇸

[National Park Service @NatlParkService]

You know it’s hot when you go outside and it’s hot.

[Matt Walsh @MattWalshBlog]

Now that SCOTUS has opened the floodgates for foreign invaders to flock across our borders and spawn, the only choice we have is to triple down on immigration enforcement. Militarize the border. Mass deportations. Round every illegal up. Don’t pull back when the lesbian activists start screeching about it. Use whatever force is necessary. There is no other option.

[Ethan Brooks @alt_w_v_g]

A deal came across my desk this week

Largest revenue-collecting enterprise in America:
> 71M customers
> 185M people funding it
> Mandatory participation
> No competitors
> No churn

On paper it's the best business model I've ever seen, so I ran diligence

It's Social Security

Put my analyst on the financials:
> He came back in 4 hours
> He did not look well

Started with the revenue model:
> 12.4% of every dollar you earn
> 6.2% withheld from your paycheck
> 6.2% paid by your employer, which is your money taking a longer route
> Applied to the first $184,500 of income, then it stops

That's the collection engine

Then I traced where the money goes

First finding:
> Nothing was set aside
> The money comes in from workers and goes out to retirees the same month
> The surplus got spent the moment it arrived
> The "trust fund" everyone talks about is $2.56T of the government holding IOUs from itself
> It has paid out more than it took in every year since 2021
> Last year the shortfall hit $160B
> I asked him where the actual money was
> He said "it already left, sir"

Second finding:
> The model only works if the people paying in can cover the people cashing out
> In 1960 there were more than 5 workers for every person collecting a check
> Today there are fewer than 3
> In 20 years there will be fewer than 2.5
> And 4.1M Americans are turning 65 every year right now
> The largest wave of retirements in the country's history
> My son was at the table
> He looked at the chart
> He said "so fewer and fewer people are paying for more and more people, and at some point it stops working?"
> I said "that's the structure, yes"
> He went back to his cereal
> My analyst looked up from his laptop
> He said "sir, with respect, this looks like a pyramid scheme"
> I corrected him
> A pyramid scheme is illegal
> This one is mandatory

Third finding:
> The headline says the money runs out in 2034
> Then my analyst found the footnote
> It is not one fund
> The old-age and survivors fund and a separate disability fund, kept apart by law
> The 2034 number blends them
> Un-blend them and the retirement side, the one almost everyone is counting on, goes first
> Not someday. Not a generation from now
> The fourth quarter of 2032
> After that the math only allows it to pay 78 cents on every dollar it promised
> A 22% cut. Automatic. No vote required.

What it would take to close the gap:
> Raise the 12.4% payroll tax to roughly 16.8%
> Cut every benefit by more than 20%, immediately and permanently
> Or some combination of the two

A remediation plan that's actually passed: none.

Pulled the cap table:
> The first person ever to collect a monthly check was a woman named Ida May Fuller
> She paid in $24.75
> Her employer paid another $24.75, which was also her money
> She collected $22,888.92
> More than 460 times what went in

The model front-loaded its winners

My wife read it over my shoulder

She did not argue with any of it

She never does

She just looked at me, then looked at the ceiling, and said nothing

She thinks I take things too far

She also thinks I'm right

Here's my diligence conclusion:
> Took your money for 40 years
> Spent it the month it arrived
> Set nothing aside
> Built a model that runs on demographics it no longer has
> Left a 22% cut to trigger in 2032
> Has no fix that ever passed

In any other deal we'd have a word for this

In this one we call it your retirement

I'm not saying anything

The economic model is saying it

Make common sense common again

Plz fix. Thx.

Sent from my iPhone

[Brian Ross @brewmeone]

Australians watching their team go down 0-2 to Team USA…

[Catholic Arena @CatholicArena]

The horror continues.

[Ben Fawkes @BFawkes22]

NFL teams favored in most games this season (using DraftKings odds):

16: LA Rams
15: Bengals
14: Bills, Lions, Ravens, Seahawks
13: Eagles, Packers, Texans
12: Bears

[Parker Thayer @ParkerThayer]

We found that the anti-fraud system in Ohio used to require patient signatures and GPS verification for Medicaid home care visits.

Then, for some reason, Ohio turned both of those off…

Now, over half of homecare payments are made despite having zero verification at all.

[Goodberry @JoeGoodberry]

I bet this place runs the ball on 2nd and 10

[Kegs 🇺🇸 @Keggles_]

@elonmusk please buy the @Reds

[Brent Scher @BrentScher]

Columbus, Ohio, home to the second biggest Somali population in the country, has become overrun by the taxpayer-funded home health industry. Billions of dollars.

@lukerosiak went to see for himself. Here’s part 1:

https://t.co/CXLFBjFqQe

[Mostly Peaceful Memes @MostlyPeaceful]

Getting another beer from the fridge while my frazzled wife battles my screaming children

[Cincinnati Reds @Reds]

WOW, ELLY, WOW.

@ellylacocoa18

[Josh Pate @JoshPateCFB]

19 more Saturdays⏳

[MLB @MLB]

How did he avoid this tag?!