Keith Colby

Mobility, Strength & Mind-Body Method. BTC Enthusiast. Tickets to escape the matrix are priced in BTC.⚡️

[Jordi Visser @jvisserlabs]

This week's Video:

The AI Mid-Cycle Slowdown: OpenAI, Anthropic, and the AI Price War

As Gavin Baker said on BG2 - “You've had a lot of stocks that forget climbing a mountain or hill. They've gone straight up a cliff.”

“They're tired. They need to rest.”

At the same time, the only people doubting AI are the perma-bears which means a two-sided consolidation is likely from here.

The easy part of the trade is over.

The next phase is about price compression at the model layer, rising costs at the physical layer but with continued rotation away from the spenders (hyperscalers) toward the companies receiving the capex.

This is not bubble collapse.

It is digestion.

Watch here:https://t.co/Z5JwstESCF

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

Thanks for having me on @ForwardGuidance, @fejau_inc to talk about "What...does...Warsh...want?"

[🏔Adam🏔 @denverbitcoin]

It do be like that tho

[Ronnie Stoeferle @RonStoeferle]

Pretty good summary of the current setup by my friend @LukeGromen:

"Simply put, the inflation of the Iran war will soon force the US (and by extension, much of the West) to choose between “save the currency” (let bond yields rise sharply with inflation, i.e., bond prices FALL sharply), breaking everything but the USD and gold) or “save the bond market” (print USD to cap UST yields to maintain nominal US government solvency, turbocharging the already accelerating and soon-to-be problematic inflation)."

[Jordi Visser @jvisserlabs]

For some, last week felt like the beginning of an AI bubble unwind.

For me, it looked like the end of the agentic infrastructure fireworks show.

The buildout is not over.

But the easy phase where every chip, memory, power, and infrastructure name worked is probably over.

Now the rotation shifts to the next layer of Jensen Huang’s five-layer cake:

Applications.

That is where ROI shows up.

That is where specialized AI models matter.

And that is why Eli Lilly may be one of the most important AI stories in the market.

GLP-1 cash flow.
Proprietary data.
LillyPod.
TuneLab
Specialized AI.
Peptides=API Keys
Human software.

This week’s video is about why this is rotation, not a bear market and why the next phase of AI may look very different from the last one.

Watch here:https://t.co/NX74tzApzP

[Natalie Brunell ⚡️ @natbrunell]

Cue this one up for the weekend. @LukeGromen joins me to break down his Bitcoin and macro outlook.

Luke sold most of his BTC near the top and lays out exactly what he's waiting for to buy back, what's driving stocks higher while Bitcoin lags, and what comes next.

Could we see a $40K bottom?

TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Why Luke Gromen Hasn't Bought Back Into Bitcoin? 2:06 The Disconnect: ATH Stocks vs. Bitcoin Liquidity 5:05 The Illusion of Value: The Accounting Trick Boosting AI Valuations 11:07 Higher Equities in Dollars, Lower in Gold & Bitcoin Terms 17:24 China's Grip on Rare Earths 23:34 Strait of Hormuz, America's "Suez Moment" 32:34 Why Would Iran Want to Keep Strait of Hormuz Closed? 36:58 Massive Surge in "Non-Monetary" Gold Exports from the US to China 41:22 Building a Proof of Work "No-Ticky No-Washy" System 45:49 What Happens 58 out of 58 Times When Debt-to-GDP Hits 130% 53:00 Technical Indicators Showing a $40K Bitcoin Floor?

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Central Bank Gold Buying Rebounds In April From Dramatic March Selloff https://t.co/kKx0LskDb6

[Marty Bent @MartyBent]

If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.

Caught up with @jvisserlabs to discuss the emergence of the agentic economy, whether or not AI is in a bubble, and what it means for bitcoin in the long term.

Must watch.

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

Even as I agree or disagree around the margins at times, more-so in terms of magnitude or timing than overall direction, I continue to view @LukeGromen as one of the absolute best references out there.
https://t.co/VAChoVxQ82

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

USD remains most USED global currency.

Gold becomes most RESERVED global asset.

Behold the new global monetary system, where the "Store of Value" function is separated from the "Medium of Exchange" & "Unit of Account" functions...hiding in plain sight 👇

[TFTC @TFTC21]

Jordi Visser says we will have a crash. He also says trying to call the exact top is ego, not strategy.

He frames AI not as a bubble but a $90 trillion global infrastructure buildout over the next decade.

The S&P 500 sits at all-time highs, but 97% of long returns come from AI-related sectors: semiconductors, hardware, power. Everything else is stagnant. This is not a broad market rally. It is a narrow infrastructure buildout rally masquerading as one.

His approach is, ride the momentum until 20-day and 50-day moving averages signal to reduce exposure, then rotate into scarcity assets that benefit from the buildout regardless.

The real alpha is not in the obvious AI winners. It is in the supply chain bottlenecks that are not yet priced for half of what is coming. Data centers, copper, silver, companies like Fujikura and Modine Manufacturing. The physical world cannot keep pace with AI demand.

The energy constraint is getting worse. Exxon and Chevron both said oil could hit $160. Goldman Sachs published capacity schedules showing summer peak load already past 135 gigawatts.

As of this morning, Iran has ended negotiations and vowed complete Hormuz closure, making that $160 scenario considerably more likely.

This connects to what @JohnTinsman laid out for us, compute leasing is a 3-4x ROI business. XAI built Colossus for $3-4 billion and leases it for $15 billion a year. Tinsman said demand is "insatiable" and we are not meeting half of it.

@jvisserlabs and Tinsman are arriving at the same conclusion from different directions. The AI buildout is real, the physical constraints are the binding variable, and Bitcoin benefits as the scarcity asset in an inflationary buildout.

On Bitcoin specifically, despite the AI boom, BTC has been range-bound. Visser remains long-term bullish, viewing Bitcoin as one of three moats that survived the test of time: gold, religion, Bitcoin.

His "Bitcoin IPO" thesis is that the massive distribution from early holders to ETF buyers is done. The next breakout will not stop because the seller base is exhausted.

[David @david_eng_mba]

“The cowards never started.

The weak died along the way.

That leaves us.”

— Phil Knight, Nike founder

When I read that opening, I thought:

That is Bitcoin.
Most never buy.
Most will buy too late.
Most will sell too early.

Most cannot survive the drawdowns, headlines, boredom, leverage wipes, and years of doubt.

Bitcoin does not transfer wealth from the impatient to the patient.

It transfers wealth from fragile conviction to unbreakable conviction grounded in deep understanding.

That leaves us.

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

Comparing MSG tickets for Knicks/Spurs 1999 NBA Finals (left) to MSG tickets for Knicks/Spurs 2026 NBA Finals (right) would seem to offer an opportunity for a clean read on actual USD inflation over the past 27 years.

[Keith Colby @KeithColby1976]

@TuttleCapital @Cboe @TuttleCap Thanks, I’d be interested.

[Jordi Visser @jvisserlabs]

“We will have a crash.”

That was the guarantee on national TV from a prominent financial journalist who just spent 8 years researching 1929 for a book by the same name. Yes, 8 years.

Maybe he is right or maybe he is selling books.

Or maybe after studying the greatest crash in market history for nearly a decade, every market starts to look like 1929.

That is exactly why investors should be using AI.

Not to predict the future perfectly, but to study the realities of crashes and bubbles without bias: how they actually formed, how they actually ended, what technical signals showed up, what was different each time, and how much fear was driven by narrative instead of data.

This week’s video is about why subscription driven bear porn only hurts you, the psychology behind bubble calls, and how to use technical analysis and AI to take control of your own view instead of letting fear narratives control you.

Watch here:https://t.co/4XW2tAxWXv

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

Can't be bearish on Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s 4-year moving average is now ~$59,919.

One year ago: ~$47,269.

That’s +26.8% YoY.

Since the February 5th, 2026 drawdown, the 4-year moving average is already up another $2,575, or +4.5%.

Bitcoin's 4-year MA has NEVER gone down year over year.

The tourists are staring at red candles.

The long-term floor is walking uphill like always.

Think Bitcoin is “going sideways”?

The noise is going sideways.

The monetary black hole is still moving up and to the right.

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

The answer to the question of what’s the long-term plan here, is that there is no long-term plan here.

[Jordi Visser @jvisserlabs]

The AI buildout is real.

This is not an “AI bubble” call. The demand is there. The revenues are coming. The capex cycle is just getting started.

But the next phase may not look like the last one.

We are now seeing bottlenecks, supply stress, rising oil, higher rates, and there are signs of momentum breaks across sectors and the globe.

The stock market is pricing a smooth AI boom.

The physical world may have a different plan.

This week’s video: Bottlenecks, Momentum Breaks, and the Next Phase of AI
Watch Here: https://t.co/Y4l5rJEy8o