Ken Tumin

Latest venture: • Sold DepositAccounts to LendingTree • Former LendingTree Senior Analyst • Interests: banks, saving, investing & walking pup

[Ken Tumin @KenTumin]

Top 5 online savings accounts by APY as of 11/09/2026

& thread on online savings account (OSA) yields and how OSA & money market fund (MMF) yields have changed since the first Fed rate cut (9/18/2024):

Top 5 Status: No change from last week.
Big 5 Status: No change from last week.

[Ken Tumin @KenTumin]

Another credit union offers a 5%+ CD. MA-based Arise Financial (formerly Rockland FCU) is offering 5.05% APY on a 18-month Share Certificate.

Arise Financial is looking like an online bank with a competitive HYSA (3.30% APY) and online account opening. Any US citizen is eligible to join Arise Financial through an American Consumer Council membership.

The name rebrand to Arise Financial came after a charter change that allowed the credit union to expand into new markets. Last February, Arise Financial and Community Credit Union merged making Arise Financial the second largest credit union in MA. Arise Financial now has total assets of $3.8 billion.

[Deposit Quest Substack @DepositQuestKCJ]

Best Nationally Available CDs, November 12, 2026

Link in comments.

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @MikeZaccardi]

10yr yield rips 11bps to 5.10%... not bearish for stocks

[Jason Zweig @jasonzweigwsj]

My pick for Read of the Day in the @WSJ:

The travails of a furniture maker that tried to bring manufacturing back onshore from Asia to the U.S.

https://t.co/8CwOOChDHL

[Ken Tumin @KenTumin]

Good review by @jasonzweigwsj of gold’s recent failure as an inflation hedge or a hedge against geopolitical turmoil. The only truism mentioned about gold:

“Let me be clear about gold. It is a decent store of value over extremely long periods”

[Jason Zweig @jasonzweigwsj]

My latest @WSJ newsletter:

I'm always wrong about gold. You probably are, too. Plus, why do we say we "redeem" a fund?
https://t.co/8xkmxnUnEn

[Ken Tumin @KenTumin]

“[Dallas Fed President Lorie] Logan said she still expects the Fed will need at least two more quarter-point increases before taking stock of those moves.”

[Jim Perry @mi_jim]

Two Federal Reserve officials suggested the central bank may need to quicken the pace of its rate increases, as the Fed’s December meeting nears https://t.co/31Eh9exWzr via @WSJ

[Ken Tumin @KenTumin]

After today’s CPI report, odds of a Dec Fed rate hike are now 100%, up from 84% yesterday. Odds of a 50-bp rate hike are now 12%, up from 0% yesterday (per CME FedWatch.)

From @WSJ “Broad Price Pressures Firm Up Case for Fed Rate Increase in December”

https://t.co/mK8hy4mls2

[IwasRetired @IwasRetired]

BLS will not deliver an October 2026 YoY number, so I'll chart the Cleveland Fed's Nowcast number. All this adds to uncertainty about the size of December FOMC hike, a quarter or a half-point?

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @MikeZaccardi]

2yr yield +18bps for its biggest one-day advance since April 2025

[Liz Thomas @LizThomasStrat]

CPI came in above expectations across the board: headline 0.35% m/m, core 0.30% m/m, supercore 0.40% m/m. We flagged the possibility of a 50 basis point hike in Dec a couple of weeks ago, but the data & Waller's comments today mean that risk is real.

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

B of A:

“.. The Fed’s inflation miss is worse than you think. .. Had inflation been above target for just a year or two, we think the Fed could have accepted 2-2.5% PCE inflation as “good enough” .. But with a large overshoot that’s coming up on six years ..” 👀

#CPI

[Jim Perry @mi_jim]

TDECU closes Smart Financial merger, creates $6B credit union - Houston Business Journal https://t.co/4RC4ip0LXT via @HOUBizjournal

[Ken Tumin @KenTumin]

“Ramp hired a 14-year-old intern after discovering an app he had built for fun that attracted attention from roughly a million people on Twitter.”

[Jim Perry @mi_jim]

A $60 billion fintech hired a 14-year-old. Its CEO explains why.
Ramp co-CEO Eric Glyman on why the fintech hired a 14-year-old intern — and how it finds engineering talent through side projects, not résumés. https://t.co/IwPxv4NfVF

[Tipswatch @TipsWatch]

October inflation came in higher than expected for both all-items and core. No annual numbers are available because no data were collected for Oct 2025.

[Ken Tumin @KenTumin]

20 years ago, on Nov 10, 2006, the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF ($VYM) was launched. The ETF tracks the FTSE High Dividend Yield Index. It’s now the third largest dividend ETF with about $81B in assets under management (AUM). The two largest dividend ETFs are the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF ($SCHD) with $121B in AUM and the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF ($VIG) with $114B in AUM.

#OnThisDay

Sources:
https://t.co/3EebeN4IvZ
https://t.co/XATbdrvQe9

[Ken Tumin @KenTumin]

Odds that there’ll be at least one rate hike by the end of 2026 are 84.0% (up from 74.4% last week.)

Odds that there’ll be at least 50 bps of rate hikes by the end of 2026 are 0.0% (same as last week.)

Current fed funds rate = 3.75%-4.00%

With significant odds of at least one more rate hike, we may see a few online savings accounts with rates above 4.50% as 2027 nears.

Odds are from CME FedWatch.

[Ken Tumin @KenTumin]

Top 5 online savings accounts by APY as of 11/09/2026

& thread on online savings account (OSA) yields and how OSA & money market fund (MMF) yields have changed since the first Fed rate cut (9/18/2024):

Top 5 Status: No change from last week.
Big 5 Status: No change from last week.

[Ken Tumin @KenTumin]

The Big 5 online savings account APYs from Sep 18, 2024 to Sep 16, 2026 to Nov 9, 2026:

Ally: 4.20% → 3.00% → 3.20% (-100 bps)
Amex: 4.25% → 3.00% → 3.20% (-105 bps)
CapOne: 4.20% → 3.00% → 3.20% (-100 bps)
Marcus: 4.40% → 3.40% → 3.50% (-90 bps)
Synchrony: 4.50% → 3.30% → 3.75% (-75 bps)

Big 5 Average: 4.31% → 3.14% → 3.37% (-94 bps)

Rate hikes since the Sep 16th Fed rate hike:
Synchrony: 3.30% → 3.55% → 3.75% (Oct 27)
Ally: 3.00% → 3.10% (Sep 25) → 3.20% (Oct 23)
CapOne: 3.00% → 3.10% (Sep 25) → 3.20% (Oct 21)
AMEX: 3.00% → 3.10% (Sep 23) → 3.20% (Oct 15)
Marcus: 3.40% → 3.50% (Sep 18)

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Economists expect growth in the core CPI to have moderated in October to around 0.22%, though the full range of estimates is broad enough to round down to 0.1% or round up to 0.3%.

Due to the government shutdown in Oct 2025, there's no tidy year-earlier figure.