Kern Kromer

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

Everyone braced for $200 oil. Instead it fell below $70, and the reason is hiding inside China...

That puzzle drove my whole conversation with energy analyst Rory Johnston.

Over 100 days into a Hormuz closure, he expected demand destruction so brutal it would take prices to levels we've never seen.

It never came. So where did the missing barrels go?

His answer: nearly everything broke right at once. Saudi and Emirati bypass pipelines ran flat out, 400 million barrels of strategic reserves were released, and then the real shock, Chinese crude imports collapsed by roughly 5 million barrels a day.

China alone quietly absorbed 400 to 500 million barrels of the blow, almost certainly by draining hidden underground reserves nobody can see by satellite.

But Rory's warning is that this calm is borrowed.

Every buffer, commercial stocks, strategic reserves, stranded tankers, has been drained at maximum pace.

Tankers are flowing out, but owners are too spooked to send empty ships back in, afraid the jaws clamp shut again.

And Iran is still throttling traffic on purpose.

They're watching the price, holding back just enough to keep their leverage.

@Rory_Johnston

[Volte-Face Investments @VolteFaceInvest]

https://t.co/Fu5X9fyHmR

[Kern Kromer @KernKromer]

.

[Anas Alhajji @anasalhajji]

I am posting this for clarification due to confusion about the group of eight's consideration of unwinding the 1.6 mb/d voluntary cut after completing the 2.2 mb/d voluntary cuts.

Remember: It is NOT OPEC+ meeting on Sunday. It is NOT OPEC+ increasing the production ceiling.

[Kern Kromer @KernKromer]

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[StarFEU @Andy_StarFEU]

Russia aims to maintain oil exports to India, offering a 5-7% discount. The US imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods due to Russian oil imports, which now constitute 35% of India's total imports.
https://t.co/SaJp8lGWrl

[Kern Kromer @KernKromer]

...

[Patrick De Haan @GasBuddyGuy]

EIA, week ending 8/15
Crude oil: -6.0M
Domestic prod: 13.382MMbpd
Cushing: +0.4M
Gasoline: -2.7M
Mogas supplied: 8.842MMbpd
Distillates: +2.3M
Refiner utilz: 96.6%
Ref inputs: 17.208MMbpd
Total exports: 11.268MMbpd
#oil #eia #gas

[Kern Kromer @KernKromer]

...

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

US crude imports by origin in kbpd incl w/w changes

Canada -210 to 3,835
Mexico -16 to 382
Saudi Arabia +91 to 364
Iraq +186 to 328
Colombia -159 to 184
Brazil -163 to 181
Nigeria -133 to 80
Ecuador -65 to 0
Libya -2 to 86
Venezuela unchanged at 0

EIA #oott

[Kern Kromer @KernKromer]

...

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

US implied oil demand (product supplied) rose by 149kbpd w/w to 21.506mbpd last week
w/w in kbpd
gasoline -158
jet fuel +70
distillate +266
residual fuel oil -118
propane/propylene +107
other oils -19
EIA #oott

[Kern Kromer @KernKromer]

FACE Interview AUG 19th 2025. Anas said he has never seen as much Fake N... https://t.co/JtPu6kPdQC via @YouTube

[Kern Kromer @KernKromer]

https://t.co/UK1Ips0e0r

[Kern Kromer @KernKromer]

..

[OilPrice.com @OilandEnergy]

Putin amended his 2022 Sakhalin-1 decree, reopening the door for foreign firms under strict terms. ExxonMobil could, in theory, return—if sanctions ease & technical ties are restored. A quiet but potent signal during the Trump–Putin summit. #Oil #Russia #Exxon

https://t.co/x2drRgvpLs

[Kern Kromer @KernKromer]

https://t.co/uJpvm12TCF

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

US crude production weekly data: This week’s domestic crude oil production estimate incorporates a re-benchmarking that increased estimated volumes by 25,000 barrels per day, which is about 0.19% of this week’s estimated production total.
EIA #oott

[Kern Kromer @KernKromer]

https://t.co/wpuWHRmkec

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

US implied oil demand (product supplied) rose by 1.235mbpd w/w to 21.357mbpd last week
w/w in kbpd
gasoline -40
jet fuel +124
distillate -19
residual fuel oil -7
propane/propylene -88
other oils 1,266

EIA #oott

[Kern Kromer @KernKromer]

https://t.co/gEI0FRjC6M

[Patrick De Haan @GasBuddyGuy]

EIA, week ending 8/8
Crude oil: +3.0M
Domestic prod: 13.327MMbpd
Cushing: +0.1M
Gasoline: -0.8M
Mogas supplied: 9.00MMbpd
Distillates: +0.7M
Refiner utilz: 96.4%
Ref inputs: 17.180MMbpd
Total exports: 10.141MMbpd
#oil #eia #gas

[Kern Kromer @KernKromer]

Fraudster using AI to fake a video.
https://t.co/tJHVN3yM35

[Josh Young @JoshYoung]

This is a first for me! I've seen fake @x accounts pretending to be me, but I've never seen video footage of me pretending to endorse a company I've never heard of!

I am not involved in $prop, but I will caution that this team led Rosehill, which rapidly went bankrupt.

[Kern Kromer @KernKromer]

https://t.co/4mjUOR13cV

[Julianne Geiger @JuliOnTwtr]

API Inventory Moves 08/12

Crude +1.5 million (exp. -800,000)
Distillates +300,000
Cushing -600,000

SPR +0
#oott #crudeoil

[Kern Kromer @KernKromer]

Cenovus in talks with Indigenous groups for joint MEG Energy bid - Bloomberg
https://t.co/IiyEOKjoRt

[Kern Kromer @KernKromer]

https://t.co/UCxrZJcGqT

[Anas Alhajji @anasalhajji]

🎯Feels good to be vindicated, especially when going against the grain!

🎯OPEC+ V8 production ceiling rose by 1.371 mb/d from April to July, but exports of OPEC+ (supply) increased by only 0.303 mb/d during the same period.

🥶Predictions of oil prices in the $30s and $40s were very wrong! The assessment of the group of 8 has been right.

[Volte-Face Investments @VolteFaceInvest]

EIA impressions... Normal late summer report. Highest period of driving, Refineries running at max levels. I would say there is a very mild bullish tactical take to get from the inventories (they did decline after all) but not by much and not with any great gusto. The weeks now are counting down rapidly to the end of the season so there really need a be a few bangers in there. 4 week demand averages compared to last year continue to be terrible besides air travel which is nice but doesn't have the actual total weight to change anything. given demand's continued poor showing now for weeks, this report to me continues the mildly bearish trends and I now expect that if this trend continues into sept you're going to be seeing an unpleasant shoulder for sure if this is what the summer looks like. Anything can change but it better start changing soon for the bulls.

[Kern Kromer @KernKromer]

From Phil Flynn
https://t.co/vYeiYbyspK

[Kern Kromer @KernKromer]

https://t.co/hjn6m22Gep

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

US crude imports by origin in kbpd incl w/w changes

Canada -237 to 3,852
Mexico +257 to 429
Saudi Arabia +65 to 288
Iraq +65 to 279
Colombia +15 to 180
Brazil +363 to 433
Nigeria -132 to 118
Ecuador -61 to 37
Libya -87 to 0

EIA #oott