β οΈTHE DECK IN YOUR HAND HAS NEVER EXISTED BEFORE
Shuffle a standard deck of 52 cards and the order you get has almost certainly never occurred in human history. Not once. Not ever.
The math is 52 factorial β 52Γ51Γ50β¦ down to 1. The result is roughly 8Γ10βΆβ·. A number so large your phone calculator canβt render it.
For scale: thatβs on the order of the atoms in the entire galaxy. One shuffle of a deck outproduces the physical universeβs inventory of matter, at least locally.
This is what real risk looks like. Not a handful of outcomes you can list on a napkin β an outcome space so vast that βit probably wonβt happenβ and βit has never happenedβ mean almost nothing.
The market doesnβt repeat hands. It deals a new one every time. Anyone pricing risk off βwhat usually happensβ is reading a deck that no longer exists.