KevTalksMarkets

[KevTalksMarkets @KevTalksMarkets]

BTC bear flag pattern on the Daily. IF* bear flag pattern plays out the first level I'm watching is the green line at ROUGHLY $16K $16.5k. Notice I have been trading the highs and lows in this flag pattern as documented in prior tweets.

[KevTalksMarkets @KevTalksMarkets]

Watch for: (1) whether Fear & Greed breaks below 15 (would extend downside ; (2) Bitcoin hashrate recovery toward 7d average miner surrender below 700 EH/s would signal deeper accumulation by institutional buyers; (3) stablecoin inflows accelerating into DeFi protocols

[KevTalksMarkets @KevTalksMarkets]

The crypto market is in acute capitulation with Fear & Greed at 23 and forced liquidations completing across leverage, but sentiment stabilization suggests panic may be nearing exhaustion within 48-72 hours.

[KevTalksMarkets @KevTalksMarkets]

Watch the BTC-4JUN26 futures basis: if backwardation persists beyond June 4 expiry, near-term selling pressure is structural; if it inverts to contango, longs are re-entering and capitulation floor may be forming.

[KevTalksMarkets @KevTalksMarkets]

Any macro surprise could trigger mean reversion in rate-sensitive names (TLT, XLF) & a relief rally in lagging sectors (Healthcare -1.0%, Utilities -2.61%), reversing Tuesday's narrow concentration & testing the S&P's ability to hold record levels on broader participation.

[KevTalksMarkets @KevTalksMarkets]

Record index closes mask a deteriorating foundation: participation collapsed (A/D ratio 0.71, SMA50 50.9%) while the VIX slipped into dangerous complacency at the 41st percentile despite the breadth breakdown. The session captured a single-theme rally (semiconductors)

[KevTalksMarkets @KevTalksMarkets]

The next 24 hours are critical: Fed's Beige Book release, May ADP Employment, May ISM Non-Manufacturing, and April Factory Orders are due Wednesday morning (07:00-14:00 ET), with markets expecting labor resilience confirmation that could prolong the rate-elevated regime.

[KevTalksMarkets @KevTalksMarkets]

@Derivatives_Ape If that’s the case, it’ll be epic and he’s gonna go out with a bang & outdo his dot com performance.

[KevTalksMarkets @KevTalksMarkets]

Don't watch headlines.

Watch your receipt: gas, diesel, groceries.

You are the highest-frequency inflation sensor in the economy.

Read the receipt before you read the headlines.

[KevTalksMarkets @KevTalksMarkets]

Three horsemen quietly destroy your wealth: interest, inflation, taxes.

Each one compounds. Hard work alone cannot out-run them.

This thread is about the second horseman — inflation.

[KevTalksMarkets @KevTalksMarkets]

The geopolitical event is upstream.
The grocery shelf is downstream.

Every explosion has a price tag.

What you pay at the register today is what the system priced months ago — when a tanker re-routed, when a refinery throttled.

[KevTalksMarkets @KevTalksMarkets]

Not a crisis call. Paulson refused to predict timing.
But the info isn't in what he said. It's in the fact he showed up to say it.
When someone in his role speaks at all — it's the tell.
Which other establishment figure deserves a Bayesian re-read? Drop a name.

[KevTalksMarkets @KevTalksMarkets]

Henry Paulson went silent on bond markets for over a decade.
Last Thursday he broke that silence.
Almost nobody read him correctly. Paulson led the US through 2008. TARP, Fannie/Freddie, AIG.
Since leaving Treasury, he rarely comments on bond markets.
He chose to last week. 🧵

[KevTalksMarkets @KevTalksMarkets]

It's the tell.
In 2008, the Treasury was the firefighter.
In a sovereign debt crisis, the Treasury is what's failing.
The firefighter has become the fire.
That's what "break-the-glass" means — a plan for when the usual tools ARE what's broken.

[KevTalksMarkets @KevTalksMarkets]

@_avichawla Gotta try this out