Kevin Maley

#ZipcodeZero Podcast and Substack. Opinions are my own.

[charles r. davis @charizardavis]

interesting how much focus there was on winning young men in 2024, but when abdul el-sayed is the senate candidate who performed best with men aged 18-29 of all races, suddenly crickets

[Kevin Maley @KevinAMaley]

This makes the Miller appointment of CoS even more confounding. Miller's main issue is draconian immigration crackdown - an issue that was probably a driving force behind these swings.

[Erin Covey @ercovey]

the biggest swings left were in majority Hispanic TX districts this cycle:

TX-28 (Cuellar): +47 pts
TX-15 (Pulido): +43 pts
TX-09 (Leticia Gutierrez): +35 pts
TX-29 (Garcia): +30 pts

[Krystal Ball @krystalball]

KEEP CALLING!

[Kevin Maley @KevinAMaley]

“Bernie normalized the kind of campaigning that really is about making a direct appeal to working people,” El Sayed told POLITICO. “Wherever I went in Michigan, there are people who remember Bernie 2016 and Bernie 2020 — we stand on the shoulders of giants.”

[POLITICO @politico]

Bernie Sanders lost the fight in 2016. A decade later, he won the war. https://t.co/wS9ASD4n3j

[Kevin Maley @KevinAMaley]

This is also a good lesson for Dem Party leadership. If there is any part of them that fears what will happen if they step away from the corporate + AIPAC donations that many Dems still rely on. The GOP had a huge cash advantage yet suffered historic loses. Money isnt everything

[Eric Levitz @EricLevitz]

The GOP had a massive money advantage. I asked
@davidshor why it bought the party so few votes.

His answer: Campaign donations are helpful. But the freedom to ignore rich weirdos' preferences is priceless.
https://t.co/WcJ5FfmKsW

[Kevin Maley @KevinAMaley]

Democrats would be insane to vote for a CR that funds the war through January. If he choses, Trump could use the next two months to escalate again - indeed there has been a substantial U.S. military asset build up over the last few weeks AND Israel is openly pushing for renewed attacks.

At this point its not even clear Trump himself wants to escalate, as he admitted the political backlash on Tuesday was driven in part by the war. He may feel he has no easy exit, but he could use the midterms as an excuse to pack things up and just blame the Democrats if he wants.

There will be a long term modus vivendi needed, but the basics of that are already known. U.S. needs to withdraw forces, end attacks and remove sanctions. Iran would likely agree to a JCPOA style agreement once its security and economic concerns were addressed.

At this point it may be worth thinking about an actual, formal treaty. That is probably a longshot given the continued AIPAC grip on the Senate - but you never know.

[Ryan Grim @ryangrim]

There's a behind-the-scenes debate going on among civil socity/NGO/antiwar groups in DC over how hard to push to end Trump's war immediately. One letter currently circulating -- backed by Win Without War, MoveOn, NIAC, Indivisible, and J Street -- had included a line that set off alarm bells with groups that want to take a hard line against the war. It read:

“We, the XX undersigned civil society organizations, urge you to respond to this mandate by voting down any defense authorization or defense appropriations bills that would continue funding this disastrous war or increase Pentagon funding beyond the already outrageous $1 trillion that the White House pushed through Congress last year...If Trump continues the war into the new year, we further urge returning members to prioritize and pass legislation expressly defunding this war early in the new Congress.”

The problem there is the "if Trump continues the war." Opponents of that language argued there was no reason to give Trump November and December to wage war, and it should be forced to an end now.

Also, the government won't be funded by a defense appropriation bill, but by a CR that has to pass on or before Dec. 11.

Sen. Chris @VanHollenForMD and @RoKhanna have said the fight should be had in the CR.

After I reached out for comment, I was told that that particular line is being stripped out of the letter. Several of the signatories said they support pushing hard now to end the war, not waiting until January. NIAC spokesman Ryan Costello said NIAC interprets "defense appropriations bills" to include the CR.

"We want immediate action to end this war. Anything less is unacceptable," Costello said.

Matt Duss, executive director of CIPA, one of the signatories, emphasized his support for the more aggressive approach proposed by Van Hollen. “Congress needs to use every tool it has right now to stop this war,” he said. “We want everyone to be going all the way.”

[Kevin Maley @KevinAMaley]

Hopefully Democrats understand that the corporate media is not their friend

[Clipping Wings @ClippingWings]

CNN asks James Talarico if he will stand up to Abdul El-Sayed

[Kevin Maley @KevinAMaley]

Dems had huge majorities in 2009 (wavering between 59/60) but most of their agenda was stalled because of the filibuster - and they allowed it to happen. It would be a complete betrayal of voters if Dems have a trifecta in 2028 and allow this to happen again. Kill the filibuster

[Gabriel Zucman @gabriel_zucman]

Abolish the Senate filibuster now.

It’s the single most important thing Democrats can do right now. And this is the ideal moment to do it. 🧵

[Matt Duss @mattduss]

Pretty good evidence that Harris’s refusal to break with Biden on Gaza was wrong on both the policy and the politics.

[Kevin Maley @KevinAMaley]

#Midterms run. May the outcome begin to crack the corrupt plutocracy that props up the establishment wings of both parties.

[Stephen Semler @stephensemler]

US is NOT cutting aid to Israel. Plan is to move it from State's budget--where the $ is formally classified as aid--to the Pentagon, where the $ is "cooperative" (but functions as aid).

This is why $500M/yr for Israeli missile programs doesn't appear on foreignassistance dot gov

[Dr. Abdul El-Sayed @AbdulElSayed]

Michigan. It's time. It's up to us to show the country what's possible.

The world is watching.

Polls are open 7AM-8PM.

[Kevin Maley @KevinAMaley]

My final Senate map. A mix of confidence and optimism. KS and IA are wild cards so this could be as likely to be more blue as more red.

[Kevin Maley @KevinAMaley]

If Dems win the House and Senate tomorrow, it would be the probably be the most exciting midterm for them in 20 years. Going back through the cycles:

- 2022 midterms: Dems lose control of the House

-2018 midterms: Dems win control of the House but lose seats in the Senate, which the GOP retains

-2014 midterms: Dems lose control the Senate, GOP retains House

2010 midterms: Dems suffer catastrophic loss in the House, retain Senate

2006 midterms: Dems win both

[Kevin Maley @KevinAMaley]

GOP went into the midterms with a big cash advantage but wonder what they would've said if you told them they'd be using money that to defend seats in Kansas, Texas, South Carolina and Mississippi

[Alex Isenstadt @axiosalex]

NEW: A "wave of arrogance and laziness"

Top Republicans are furious over having to spend tens of millions to bail out three red-state senators they say ignored repeated warnings and took reelection for granted.

More on the behind-the-scenes blame game:

https://t.co/RvGnkXeyXU

[Kevin Maley @KevinAMaley]

If this is even remotely true then we are living through an incredibly dangerous period of time. Democrats should reject any CR that does not cut off funding for this disastrous war and put a permanent end to it should they attain power of the purse come January.

[Kevin Maley @KevinAMaley]

Reporting from @ZachGorchow seems to indicate (as widely assumed) that the pro-Israel donors who backed Stevens continued to push her even after the primary. Stevens' creepy fiancé was the conduit, declaring a mystery "they" are "really disappointed in her"

[Zach Gorchow @ZachGorchow]

I talked to former Gov. Jim Blanchard about an hour ago. He had a unique view of Stevens' last 48 hours, having had dinner with her and her fiance, Jason Turkish, on Friday. You want the details? Here they are, and, trust me, you're going to want to read.
https://t.co/L1LyzrSCR2

[Kevin Maley @KevinAMaley]

So Rogers' campaign staff are literally *registered agents for Israel* and Haley Stevens, who got $30m from pro-Israel donors, decides to endorse him because the Democratic nominee is insufficiently subservient to Israel.

This is American politics today.

[Drop Site @DropSiteNews]

🚨NEW from @DropSiteNews: Mike Rogers Campaign Spokesperson Is a Registered Agent for Israel, Documents Show

Abigail Ronson and Jesse Stokes have been working for the government of Israel since May and last October, respectively, while also working on the campaign of Mike Rogers for Senate.

By @JSweetLI

https://t.co/aRQVv4FPmv

[Kevin Maley @KevinAMaley]

Disgusting racist attack against El-Sayed by Trump as he glows in Haley's endorsement of Rogers, which she claimed to have done to stand up for (made up) bigotry

[Bulwark Clips @BulwarkClips]

Q: "What did [Haley Stevens] say back to you?"

Mike Johnson: "I've spoken her and encouraged her to stay safe."

Q: "Do you think she's not safe?"

Johnson: "I don't know."

Trump: "They're dangerous. He's a jihadist."

[Kevin Maley @KevinAMaley]

This is why Stevens was so excited to endorse

[Ryan Grim @ryangrim]

NEW from @DropSiteNews by @JSweetLI:

Mike Rogers Campaign Spokesperson Is a Registered Foreign Agent for Israel, Documents Show https://t.co/6h1wi0dSxK