$SPCX There is a misunderstood story being told with Starlink Mobile.
Currently Starlink requires partnerships with MNO's using their spectrum to reach users. Their ambition to become a standalone carrier has 2 major bottlenecks it needs to overcome:
1/ Starship is the only option to get the Starlink V2 Mobile (D2D) satellites into orbit as they physically can't fit in the smaller Falcon 9 fairings.
We know Starship is in the process of proving its reliability, and so far it hasn't had a great track record even with it being in development since 2019, and any further issues will delay the deployment of the hundreds of satellites needed to have a commercially viable service. Analysts estimate Starship will be carrying V2 Mobile satellites in Q3/Q4 of 2027, IF there are no delays. We know space is hard, launching doesn't always go to plan, each Starship can carry 50 satellites and Starlink Mobile will need hundreds in orbit to provide commercial coverage. We are talking 10-20 Starship launches that are flawless in their delivery. Expect mid to late 2028 as a realistic date to work with for full V2 Mobile coverage.
2/ Existing mobile phones won't work with the Starlink V2 Mobile + Echostar spectrum.
This is probably the single biggest issue and a problem competitor $ASTS AST Spacemobile doesn't have.
No iPhone, Samsung or any other kind of phone will be able to use Starlink Mobile, and users will have to purchase new phones with the new chipsets installed to use this service. It is estimated that by the end of 2027 the major phone brands will have the required chipset built in, but this creates an issue where the user base is limited to only these new phones, and a meaningful user base won't be built up until at least 2029.
Starlink will have to continue using MNO partnerships until its Starlink V2 Mobile constellation is built out and the latest mobile phones can support the D2D capabilities, we can assume late 2028. Once Starlink is able to become a standalone carrier, we will see major worldwide competition between Starlink Mobile and existing carriers, and this is where the case for AST Spacemobile becomes interesting.
- AST Spacemobile is currently partnered with over 50 MNO's, with a combined user base of 2.9 billion.
- AST Spacemobile's satellites work with existing phones for D2D 5G connectivity, no new chipset needed.
- AST Spacemobile already has satellites in production and in orbit, with only 45 needed for commercial service, not 600+.
AST Spacemobile has the advantage of greater technology, a head start in production and launch, and more partners for global connectivity.
If AST Spacemobile can continue to scale with little disruption and hit commercial service in Q1/Q2 of 2027, it will cement itself as the global D2D 5G provider with little to no competition for at least a year, and that brings the current valuation of $35B in to question. Should it be valued this low?
I believe analysts are over estimating the success of $SPCX's Starlink Mobile and understating the value proposition of $ASTS's AST Spacemobile, and it is only a matter of time until this gap closes.
The absolute earliest date Starlink Mobile can become a stand alone carrier is 30 November 2027 - this is the date the Echostar spectrum is transferred, so until this milestone is reached, we will se a battle for carrier partnerships, and the recent joint venture with AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile is the signal that existing MNO's see SpaceX as a threat that needs to be contained, and AST Spacemobile is the answer to that.
Successful launch!๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐
All satellites were captured within minutes and already orbiting Earth with all systems nominal.
Congratulations to the incredible AST SpaceMobile team! 250Y U.S.A. ๐๐ถ ๐ค
@tottaway22 What a sad existence. Wouldnโt life be better if people just rooted for an American tech company owning global coverage from
Space? I donโt understand