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Over one point five goals, eighty percent, and United's home record is where it starts: over 1.5 goals in 85% of their last 20 home league games at Old Trafford. That's a ground where games rarely stay quiet.

The back door is the big part of it. United have conceded in 10 consecutive home league games, and they've kept only 4 clean sheets in their last 20 at home.

At the other end, United have scored in 17 of their last 20 home league games, 85%, and average 2 goals a game there.

Villa bring their share. They've scored in 6 consecutive league games, and in 14 of their last 20 away league games. Their away games have had over 1.5 goals in 80% of their last 20 too.

The model expects United to score 1.6 goals and Villa 1.4, so it sees goals at both ends, not a cagey one.

It's a strong number, not a promise. One goal or none is how it goes wrong, and with United leaking at home and Villa scoring, I don't see the scoreboard that quiet. Over one point five goals, eighty percent.

#MUFC #AVFC #PremierLeague

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Under three point five goals, seventy-seven percent. Sunderland's home record points the same way. There have been under 3.5 goals in 80% of their last 20 home league games, and in 6 consecutive home league games at the Stadium of Light. That's a ground where the scoreboard rarely gets busy. Sunderland's home scoring is thin: they average 1 goal a game in their last 20 home league games and have failed to score in 8 of them. So if this goes to four or more, it'll need goals from an end that often hasn't supplied any. They don't give much away at home either. They average 1.1 conceded a game there and have kept 8 clean sheets in their last 20 home league games, which is a back door that shuts more often than you'd think. Chelsea's away games stayed under the line too, in 70% of their last 20 away league games. The model expects Sunderland to score 1.1 goals and Chelsea 1.4. That's a game with a few goals in it, not a shootout. It's a decent number, but it's still not a promise. Under three point five goals, seventy-seven percent.

#SAFC #CFC #PremierLeague

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Over one point five goals, eighty-two percent, and Bournemouth's scoring on the road is the heart of it: they've scored in 8 consecutive away league games. That's a side that doesn't turn up empty-handed. Ipswich do their share at Portman Road. They've scored in 18 of their last 20 home league games, 90%, and there have been over 1.5 goals in 9 consecutive Ipswich home league games. Ipswich are up this season, so those home figures are mostly last season's division, but they still point the same way. Bournemouth's away games run hot too: over 1.5 goals in 85% of their last 20 away league games, and they've conceded in 15 of those 20. The meetings agree as well, with over 1.5 goals in the last 6 league meetings between these two. The model expects Ipswich to score 1.6 goals and Bournemouth 1.6. That's goals at both ends, not a game short of them. For this to lose you need one goal or none, and with both attacks this reliable I don't see the scoreboard staying that quiet. Over one point five goals, eighty-two percent.

#ITFC #AFCB #PremierLeague

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Over one point five goals, eighty-four percent, and Liverpool's away scoring is the engine: they've scored in 18 of their last 20 away league games, 90%. They've scored in 12 consecutive away league games too, so this is a side that travels with a goal in it. Palace's end of the pitch tells the same story from the other side of the ball. They've conceded in 14 of their last 20 home league games, and in 6 consecutive home league games. That's a door that keeps swinging open at Selhurst. The games themselves back it up. There have been over 1.5 goals in 6 consecutive Palace home league games, and in 80% of Liverpool's last 20 away league games. The model expects Palace to score 1.1 goals and Liverpool 2.1, which is a game with goals at both ends, not one short of them. It's a big number, but it's not a promise. For this to lose you need one goal or none, and with Palace leaking at home like that and Liverpool scoring every trip lately, I'd be surprised. Over one point five goals, eighty-four percent.

#CPFC #LFC #PremierLeague

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Over one point five goals, eighty-three percent, and Brighton's home record is where it starts. There have been over 1.5 goals in 85% of their last 20 home league games, and in 8 consecutive home league games at the Amex. That's a ground where two goals is the normal afternoon. Brighton have scored in 16 of their last 20 home league games, 80%, so they rarely draw a blank there. Brentford's travels point the same way. There have been over 1.5 goals in 7 consecutive Brentford away league games. They've conceded in 7 consecutive away league games, so the door doesn't shut on the road, and they've scored in 5 consecutive away league games as well, so they bring something with them. Over their last 20 away league games they've kept only 5 clean sheets. The model expects Brighton to score 2.2 goals and Brentford 1, which is a forecast with goals at both ends. It's a high number, not a promise: it loses on one goal or none, and with both sides finding the net this often, I don't see it. Over one point five goals, eighty-three percent.

#BHAFC #BrentfordFC #PremierLeague

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Under three point five goals, eighty-one percent, and Forest's home record makes the case: under three point five goals in 85% of their last 20 home league games. That's a ground where games rarely get away from anyone. The recent run says the same, with under that line in 6 consecutive Forest home league games. Forest's own scoring at home is thin: they've failed to score in 11 of their last 20 home league games, averaging 0.9 scored a game there, and they haven't scored more than one goal in 6 consecutive home league games. City's away games aren't wild either: under three point five goals in 80% of their last 20 away league games, averaging 1.8 scored and 1.1 conceded a game on the road. The model expects Forest to score point six goals and City one point six, so most of the goals are expected at one end, and the forecast isn't a shootout. For this to lose you need four goals or more, and Forest haven't scored more than one at home against City in 7 consecutive league meetings. Under three point five goals, eighty-one percent.

#NFFC #MCFC #PremierLeague

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Over one point five goals, eighty-four percent, and Fulham's home scoring is where it starts: they've scored in 17 of their last 20 home league games, 85%. That's a side that rarely draws a blank at the Cottage, and they've scored in 5 consecutive home league games.
Newcastle's away games are the other half of it. There have been over 1.5 goals in 6 consecutive Newcastle away league games, and that line has landed in 75% of their last 20 away league games. Their back door is the reason: they've conceded in 16 of their last 20 away league games, so Fulham shouldn't be short of a way through.
They bring something going forward as well. Newcastle have scored in 15 of their last 20 away league games, so this isn't only about Fulham.
The model expects Fulham to score 1.8 goals and Newcastle 1.5. That's a forecast with goals at both ends, not a game that's short of them.
It's a big number, but it isn't a promise. One goal or none would sink it, and with both sides scoring that often, I don't see it. Over one point five goals, eighty-four percent.

#FFC #NUFC #PremierLeague

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Over one point five goals, seventy-six percent, and Arsenal's home record does the heavy lifting: over 1.5 goals in 80% of their last 20 home league games. They've scored in 12 consecutive home league games and won 7 straight there, so this isn't a side that does goalless afternoons at the Emirates. They average 2.1 scored a game at home over those last 20, and the model expects them to score two point one goals here, with Hull on point seven. That's the home side carrying the line, with the visitors adding a bit. Hull are up this season, so their away figures are mostly last season's division, but they've scored in 17 of their last 20 away league games, and they don't keep it tight on the road either, with clean sheets in only 30% of those. There have been over 1.5 goals in the last 10 league meetings between these two. For this to lose you need one goal or none, and with Arsenal scoring that reliably at home, I don't see it. Over one point five goals, seventy-six percent.

#AFC #HCFC #PremierLeague

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Spurs away from home is where this starts: under three point five goals in 11 consecutive away league games, and the model's call at Elland Road is under three point five goals, 82%. That streak isn't a fluke either. Spurs' away league games have stayed under that line in 80% of their last 20, so tight afternoons on the road are their habit. Their scoring away is modest: they average 1.1 goals a game in their last 20 away league games. Leeds keep things calm too. Across their last 20 league games they've stayed under three point five goals in 85%, and they concede 0.9 a game in those games. They've kept clean sheets in 35% of their last 20 league games, so there's no open house at their end. The model expects Leeds to score 1.3 goals and Spurs 0.9, and that reads like a contest, not a shootout. For this to lose you need four goals or more, and with Spurs travelling this light in front of goal, I can't see the scoreboard getting that busy. Under three point five goals, 82%.

#LUFC #THFC #PremierLeague

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Under three point five goals, seventy-six percent, and Coventry's away games make the case: under that line in 80% of their last 20 away league games. Coventry are up this season, so those away figures are mostly last season's division, but they still point the same way. Everton at home sit in a similar place: under three point five goals in 75% of their last 20 home league games. The model expects Everton to score 1.6 goals and Coventry 0.9, which reads like a game with goals in it but not a pile of them. Everton average 1.4 scored and 1.5 conceded per game over their last 20 at home, so there's steady scoring there, not a flood. Coventry average 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded per game across their last 20 away league games, which is a side that gets involved without blowing games open. It's a decent number, not a promise. For this to lose you need four goals or more, and neither attack has the look of one that runs up that kind of score. Under three point five goals, seventy-six percent.

#EFC #PUSB #PremierLeague

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Over 1.5 goals, 74%. Newcastle have conceded in 13 consecutive home league games, and that's where this one starts.

That's a defence that hasn't had a quiet night at home in a long while, so Everton don't need much to make their mark.

Newcastle hold up their own end too. They've scored in 18 of their last 20 home league games, which is a side that expects to find the net in front of its own crowd.

The line itself has been cleared in 95% of Newcastle's last 20 home league games. Over 1.5 goals is close to the default at St. James' Park.

Everton aren't shy away either. They've scored in 13 of their last 20 away league games, so they tend to bring something with them.

The model expects Newcastle to score 1.4 goals and Everton 1.2. That's goals forecast at both ends, not a game short of them.

It's not a lock, mind. It loses on one goal or none. With Newcastle scoring and conceding that steadily at home, I'd be surprised to see the scoreboard that quiet.

Over 1.5 goals, 74%.

#NUFC #EFC #PremierLeague

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Under 3.5 goals, 81%. There have been under 3.5 goals in 18 consecutive Arsenal league games, and that's the spine of this call. Away from home it's the same story: under 3.5 goals in 8 consecutive Arsenal away league games. Liverpool aren't dragging games the other way either. There have been under 3.5 goals in 6 consecutive Liverpool league games, and at Anfield their last 20 home league games stayed under that line 80% of the time. The defending is where it settles. Arsenal have kept clean sheets in 10 of their last 20 away league games, so half the time they leave nothing at all for the other side. Across all league games they've conceded just 0.7 a game. My model expects Liverpool to score 1 goal and Arsenal 1.2, which is a proper contest, but nothing like a shootout. It's a big number, not a promise. For this to lose you need four goals or more, and with Arsenal this hard to break down, I can't see Liverpool supplying enough of them. Under 3.5 goals, 81%.

#LFC #AFC #PremierLeague

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7 of 8 calls right on Saturday.

Chelsea 2–0 Man Utd: 2+ goals in the game · 86% ✅
Bournemouth 2–0 Leeds: 3 goals or fewer · 83% ✅
Brentford 2–0 Nottm Forest: 2+ goals in the game · 80% ✅
Coventry 3–1 Sunderland: 2+ goals in the game · 82% ✅
Hull 2–2 Ipswich: 2+ goals in the game · 81% ✅
Man City 0–1 Brighton: 2+ goals in the game · 90% ❌
Tottenham 2–0 Palace: 2+ goals in the game · 79% ✅
Aston Villa 1–1 Fulham: 3 goals or fewer · 79% ✅

#PremierLeague

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Under 3.5 goals, 79%. There have been under 3.5 goals in 9 consecutive Fulham away league games, and that's where this starts. Their last 20 away league games stayed under that line 80% of the time, so this isn't a side that brings chaos on its travels. The goals from their end are scarce as well. Fulham haven't scored more than 1 goal in 9 consecutive away league games, and they've failed to score in 9 of their last 20 away. Against Villa it's the same story: Fulham haven't scored more than 1 goal in 8 consecutive away league meetings with them. Villa's home league games have stayed under 3.5 goals in 70% of their last 20, so Villa Park isn't usually a goal fest either. The model expects Villa to score 1.3 goals and Fulham 1.1, which reads like a decent contest rather than a shootout. For this to lose you need four goals or more, and with Fulham bringing so little away, Villa would have to carry nearly the whole lot themselves. I'd need convincing. Under 3.5 goals, 79%.

#AVFC #FFC #PremierLeague

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Over 1.5 goals, 79%. Spurs have conceded in 17 of their last 20 home league games, and that's the bit that makes this one. A side that leaks that often at home doesn't tend to host quiet games, and there have been over 1.5 goals in 85% of their last 20 at home. Palace bring their end of it. They've scored in 13 of their last 20 away league games, so they travel with a goal in them more often than not. Their own back door isn't much tighter: they've conceded in 16 of their last 20 away, which hands Spurs a way in too. Spurs have scored in 16 of their last 20 at home, so they're not short of a goal on their own patch either. The model expects Tottenham to score 1.9 goals and Palace 1.1, and that reads as a game with something at both ends. It loses on only one goal in the game, or none. With both sides scoring and conceding like that, I'd need a lot of convincing. Over 1.5 goals, 79%.

#THFC #CPFC #PremierLeague

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Over 1.5 goals, 90%. Man City have scored in 22 consecutive home league games, and that's half the job done before Brighton get off the bus. City have also scored in 18 consecutive league meetings with Brighton, so this fixture doesn't stop the run either. At home, City's last 20 league games went over 1.5 goals 95% of the time. That's a ground where quiet afternoons don't happen. Brighton bring their share. They've scored in 15 of their last 20 away league games, and they've conceded in 13 of them, so there's traffic both ways when they travel. There have been over 1.5 goals in 9 consecutive Brighton league games. The model expects City to score 2.2 goals and Brighton 1.8. That's two sides expected to score, not one side holding on. There have been over 1.5 goals in the last 11 league meetings between these two as well. It's a big number, but it's not a promise. It loses on only one goal in the game, and with both sides scoring that often, I can't see it. Over 1.5 goals, 90%.

#MCFC #BHAFC #PremierLeague

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Over one point five goals, 81%. Ipswich have conceded in 8 consecutive league games, and that's the bit I keep coming back to. Two promoted sides, so a lot of this form is last season's division, but the pattern is plain enough. On the road it's the same story: Ipswich have conceded in 5 consecutive away league games, and in 14 of their last 20 away. Their attack travels too. They've scored in 16 of their last 20 away league games, 80%, so they're rarely a side that goes home without one. Hull do their share at the KCOM, scoring in 15 of their last 20 home league games. Ipswich's away league games have gone over 1.5 goals in 85% of their last 20, which tells you what kind of afternoon they usually bring. The model expects Hull to score 1.8 goals and Ipswich 1.3, so there's something at both ends. It loses on only one goal in the game, or none, and with Ipswich leaking like that I don't see it. Over one point five goals, 81%.

#HCFC #ITFC #PremierLeague

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Over 1.5 goals, 82%. There have been over 1.5 goals in 8 consecutive Sunderland away league games, and that's the heart of it.

Sunderland's away games have gone over 1.5 goals in 85% of their last 20. That's a side whose trips rarely stay tidy.

The back door is the big part. Sunderland have conceded in 18 of their last 20 away league games, so Coventry shouldn't need much luck to get their end going.

Coventry are up this season, so their home numbers are mostly last season's division. Even so, they scored in 14 of their last 20 home league games, and those home games went over 1.5 goals in 70% of them.

Sunderland bring something too. They scored in 13 of their last 20 away league games, so this isn't all on Coventry.

The model expects Coventry to score 1.6 goals and Sunderland 1.6. That's an even game with goals at both ends, not one side sitting in.

It loses on only one goal in the game, or none. With Sunderland conceding away the way they do, and finding the net themselves often enough, I don't see it staying that quiet. It's not a promise, though. Over 1.5 goals, 82%.

#PUSB #SAFC #PremierLeague

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Over 1.5 goals, 80%. Nottingham Forest have scored in 14 consecutive away league games, and that's where this call starts. A side that keeps finding the net on the road gives you half the job done before kick-off.

Brentford supply the other half. They've scored in 10 consecutive league games, and in 6 consecutive home league games. That's a home side that rarely draws a blank.

The games themselves tell the same story. There have been over 1.5 goals in 13 consecutive Brentford league games, and in 14 consecutive Forest away league games. Neither run suggests a quiet scoreboard.

Forest's door hasn't been shutting either. They've conceded in 6 consecutive away league games, so Brentford's scoring has somewhere to go.

The model expects Brentford to score 1.8 goals and Forest 1.2. That's a game with goals at both ends in it, not one starved of them.

The meeting itself backs it up. There have been over 1.5 goals in the last 10 league meetings between these two.

It's a high number, but it's not a promise. For this to lose you'd need one goal or none, and with both sides scoring this regularly I don't see it. Over 1.5 goals, 80%.

#BrentfordFC #NFFC #PremierLeague

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Under 3.5 goals, 83%. Leeds' league games have stayed under 3.5 goals in 85% of their last 20, and that's where this starts. They've conceded 0.9 goals a game across those last 20 league games, so they don't hand much out. They've kept clean sheets in 35% of them too. Away from home their league games have stayed under 3.5 goals in 75% of their last 20, so the road doesn't change the picture much. Bournemouth's home league games have stayed under that line in 60% of their last 20, and across all their league games it's 75%. The model expects Bournemouth to score 1.2 goals and Leeds 1. That's a modest forecast for Bournemouth and a modest one for Leeds, not the shape of a goal-fest. For this to lose you'd need four goals or more. It's a big number, but it's not a promise, and with Leeds' league games staying under that line as often as they do, I'd be surprised. Under 3.5 goals, 83%.

#AFCB #LUFC #PremierLeague