@Bay_Area_Sam May be we go up till tomorrow morning when all bears tap after tonight amd earnings. Then a small pullback to 21ema before continuing the ride. Choppy may after tonight.
@Bay_Area_Sam Reached the upper bound. War and AI not sure if this is a bubble. Even if it is a bubble market can rise till 2030 and 2033 to hit 10000 on spx.
@TMA_MarketIntel@WatcherGuru May be long term. Short term it wont make a dent. Splitting can be opec geopolitical play.. so they can be on both sides of the war. To have clients.
🚨BREAKING: Two researchers from UPenn and Boston University just published a paper that should be uncomfortable reading for every CEO automating their workforce right now.
The argument is straightforward. Every company replacing workers with AI is also eliminating its own future customers. Laid off workers stop spending. Enough of them stop spending and nobody can afford to buy anything. The companies that fired everyone end up selling into an economy with no purchasing power left.
Every executive can see this. The math is not complicated. But here is why nobody stops.
If you do not automate, your competitor does. They cut costs, lower prices, take your market share, and you collapse anyway. So every company automates knowing it is collectively destructive because the alternative is dying alone while everyone else survives. The researchers proved this is a Prisoner's Dilemma playing out in real time.
The numbers are already moving. Block cut nearly half its 10,000 employees this year. Jack Dorsey said AI made those roles unnecessary and that within the next year the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion. Salesforce replaced 4,000 customer support agents with AI. Goldman Sachs deployed a coding tool that lets one engineer do the work of five. Over 100,000 tech workers were laid off in 2025 and AI was cited as the primary driver in more than half those cases. 80% of US workers hold jobs with tasks susceptible to AI automation.
The researchers tested every proposed solution. Universal basic income does not change a single company's incentive to automate. Capital income taxes adjust profit levels but not the per-task decision to replace a human. Collective bargaining cannot hold because automating is always the dominant strategy.
They also identified what they call a Red Queen effect. Better AI does not solve the problem, it accelerates it. Every company chases faster automation to gain market share over rivals but at the end everyone has automated equally, the gains cancel out, and the only thing left is more destroyed demand.
The one thing the math says could work is a Pigouvian automation tax. A per-task charge that forces companies to account for the demand they destroy each time they replace a worker.
The conclusion is that this is not a transfer of wealth from workers to owners. Both sides lose. Workers lose income. Companies lose customers. It is a deadweight loss with no market mechanism to stop it on its own.
(Link in the comment)
$SPY $SPX Bookmark These Times.
They are key to liquidity for the 2nd half of the year.
Alot can and will change but Memorial Day then July 4th summer break are key.
As of today, May 12, 2025, the House Ways and Means Committee has introduced a comprehensive tax reform bill and is scheduled to begin debate on it tomorrow, Tuesday, May 13, at 2 p.m. Eastern Time. This bill, informally referred to as “THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL,” encompasses over $4 trillion in tax cuts and $1.5 trillion in spending reductions over the next decade. Key provisions include expanded child tax credits, deductions for tips and overtime pay, and increased caps on state and local tax (SALT) deductions.
Republican leaders are aiming to pass the bill in the House by Memorial Day, May 26, 2025, and are targeting final enactment by the July 4th recess. However, internal disagreements—particularly over proposed Medicaid cuts and SALT deduction limits—could affect the timeline.
The Senate has not yet scheduled a vote, but coordination between House and Senate Republicans is ongoing. The reconciliation process being used allows the bill to pass the Senate with a simple majority, bypassing the filibuster.
In summary, the House committee will begin debate on May 13, with a full House vote anticipated by Memorial Day and potential final passage by early July.
@market_sleuth@blondebroker1@Norseman1@StockPatternPro@SuperLuckeee
$SPX ST/IT/LT “TIMER”-
Looking for price to interact with the Bull/Bear Line,.. but stay above the Pink Trend line(Yes, that’s the 21ema mean).
This is close to 1998(Oct. leg out), 2018(Jan. 2019 leg out) analogs. This means Price crawls into box and stays there,…and works its way up to the upper right corner in Price and Time.
This will trigger a Power Trend approximately in that Time(Blue Star),.. if it can stay within these confines.
Defensively a 90DVOL coming in anywhere in this timeframe suggests an Oct. 2011 type higher low and near gap fills. That’s gets bot by me as I believe a Significant High Low will be built near yellow lines should we go there.
But, again I believe we lean 1998, 2018 and do not fill gap.
A BAM or Whaley Breadth Thrust in next day or two will play into this as well. That gets us up in box by tomorrow’s close and suggests the 1998, 2018 analogs are alive and well with no significant higher low coming until after or near ATH’s test.
Either way..being at the Blue Star in Price and Time with or without more Thrusts suggests ATH’s by June/July. This is also in line with sharp rallies like 1998, 2018 post Thrusts. 1998 didn’t have this many combo’d Thrusts as in 2025.
Dips and breakouts(strength) will be bot in leading stocks and sectors as this plan holds up. Only 50% long,.. mostly from curve down and out of Buy Box from pinned post. Power Trend fires will be closer to 75-100%.