Something doesn't add up here:
1. Trump on April 7th: Fed Chair Powell is "slow moving"
2. Bessent on April 14th: Trump Admin is thinking of successor to Powell
3. Trump on April 17th: Fed Chair Powell "will be out of there"
4. Trump on April 19th: "Studying" if he can fire Fed Chair Powell
5. Trump on April 21st: Fed Chair Powell is "a major loser"
6. Trump today: "No intention" to fire Fed Chair Powell
What changed today?
Headlines
Bottom line:
1. No deal with Japan, Mexico or EU, which are supposed to be the easiest to sign.
2. No Peace in Ukraine.
3. China and Russia deals with Iran
3. Higher bond yields, lower dollar
4. Further threats
If you have not noticed yet, the entire world is shifting from the US and the biggest adversaries are using it to get closer to the rest of the world.
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-US is ready to recognize Crimea as Russia's in Ukraine peace deal.
-Iran Sees Useful Talks with US in Constructive Atmosphere
->Iran top diplomat, Araqchi will visit China on Tuesday - Iranian Foreign Ministry
-Iran: Guaranteeing US sanction removal is a "fundamental demand"
->Putin signed a law ratifying strategic partnership treaty with Iran - RIA
-Trump: There can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW.
- Mexico's President Sheinbaum: I didn't reach final agreement in Trump call.
-Trump: Tariff negotiations going well.
-Trump: Tariffs going well, and everybody wants to negotiate.
-Japan is reportedly asking the US what it wants in trade talks and can't get an answer -FOX
-Japan won’t just keep conceding to US demands to reach a deal over tariffs -Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba
-Trump touts cars and steel tariffs.
China is doubling down:
China has just announced that they will be pulling back from US private equity investments.
Chinese state-backed funds are halting new investments in US PE firms due to government pressure.
According to PE executives, funds like China Investment Corporation (CIC) have already begun withdrawing planned commitments.
Chinese investors are also avoiding US-linked deals, even when managed by non-US based PE funds.
Just 24 hours ago, China warned they would retaliate against countries that cooperate with the US in ways that compromise their interests.
It's very clear what's happening here:
China is seeking to isolate the US through trade and investment.
The US-China trade war just escalated to a new level.
Investors are piling into gold funds like never before:
Gold funds posted a record ~$8 billion in net inflows last week.
This is double the record weekly inflows seen during the 2020 pandemic.
As a result, the 4-week moving average of inflows jumped to ~$4 billion, also an all-time high.
Gold prices have now rallied 29% this year, the best year-to-date gain since 1974.
In fact, in less than 5 months, gold has already exceeded its 27% return seen in 2024.
Gold is making history.
Every move listed isn’t a tantrum—it’s China rearranging the global table.
Boeing slowdowns? Not just economic pressure—a signal to global aviation markets that China will pivot to domestic aerospace and European alternatives. It fractures U.S. manufacturing narrative strength at the prestige level.
Google antitrust probe? Not about search—about decoupling AI leverage. The message: “We’ll fracture your dominance before you fracture our ecosystem.”
Rare-earth export limits? These aren’t just minerals—they’re the collateral of the next war (kinetic or financial). China is marking off the pieces on the board it’s no longer willing to share.
Hollywood access cuts? That’s cultural leverage withdrawal. Narrative detachment.
When the empire loses the power to export its dreams, it begins to lose the power to define reality.
Visa revocations and WTO moves? That’s strategic optics. Not real counterpressure—just enough to look like the adult in the room while shifting trade alliances behind the curtain.
But here’s the deepest move:
“China says it won’t mirror future U.S. tariff hikes, calling them ‘economically meaningless.’”
That’s the trap.
Because when your enemy refuses to mirror you, they change the frame.
And the Trump strategy only works inside the mirror game—bilateral, tit-for-tat, pressure symmetry.
Once China refuses to play by that reflexive rhythm,
they stop looking like the villain.
And Trump starts looking like the global destabilizer.
But here’s the paradox:
Even that strengthens him domestically.
Because Trump isn’t trying to win global favor.
He’s breaking the system that runs on it.
So what’s really happening?
•China is tightening strategic control over chokepoints.
•The U.S. is tightening narrative control over its domestic belief base.
•And Bitcoin rises silently as trust leaks from both systems.
Few thoughts on tariffs.
• “Trump is doing it on purpose to get rates down and refinance the national debt.”
-> Wiping out $5-10T of value to refinance billions isn’t realistic. Refinancing isn’t a press and done either.
• “Trump is doing it to bring back jobs in manufacturing”
1. Supply chains will take years and billions to build
2. Rare earths, materials supply chain non-existent to supply those factories
3. Labour cost is too high, your products would cost a multiple of what they are now
-> Lutnick literally said they would replace the jobs through robotics and not workers.
• “The economy will boom and jobs will be created in the US”
-> Prices for products will increase, decreasing demand and thus killing both company worth as well as jobs overall.
-> For decades the US outsources low quality jobs to focus on a massive technological advantage that brought the US its economical power in this age. The US is back to focusing on manufacturing while China focuses on new technologies.
• “We will see an investment boom into the US”
-> Countries around the world boycotting the US who they considered an ally and friend as they impose their will on the world.
-> Investments are frozen as there is no stability in policy path and consistency. Most CEOs sitting and waiting until all negotiations are done and do not want to invest in multi-billion capex for something that will likely be reversed, latest with a new admin.
• “The new tariffs will help us eliminate taxes”
-> The Tariffs are paid by the consumer in the end, the difference between the old price and the new inflated cost is your new tax, thus until tax cuts you are being double-taxed.
An update on small cap market cycles: (long post)
By my objective measures (gap/runners/liquidity/multiday stats), the market is actually on the hotter side compared to 22', 23', and early/mid 24'.
However, the small cap market has become extremely competitive. Short sellers are experiencing repeated outlier (not so outlier anymore) moves that their back tests can not prepare them for, and long traders are either missing moves completely or fighting each other for the same exact fills all day long.
If you have been a member of small cap markets for the last 3-5 years, my guess is you have felt this shift in price action in the last 6-12 months. It has become especially noticeable in the last 4-5 months.
I do not believe this is just another cycle. I believe we are witnessing the beginnings of a permanent change to small cap markets that was simply not possible before 0 commission trading. (circa 2020)
Let me explain:
It has been 2-3 years since the emergence of the first public hyper scalpers (500-1000 trades/day).
Since then, the hyper scalping niche has grown exponentially due to the amount of educational rooms and live streamers literally giving away the strategy completely free.
Relentless, Warrior, Farmer, Moon. These are just a few of the educators with hundreds+ of people each chasing their trades in real time every minute of the day. You can find their videos all over YouTube, their meetups on TikTok, and their pnl posts are the perfect marketing tool for a young generation who has given up on the 9-5 and is hungry for internet wealth.
Add in the low barrier to entry (0 commission brokers), stable equity curves, and lack of blowup potential has made hyper scalping the obvious choice of strategy for any new trader.
As a result, there are now literally 1000's of traders tuning in to live streams and discord rooms trading the same handful of gappers every single day.
I recently introduced a friend to trading who had absolutely 0 experience in the stock market. I gave him a technical analysis book to read and some general advice and left him on his own.
2 weeks later, he texts me that he has been watching "Ross Cameron Youtube videos", and he shows me that he is already placing trades in some of the exact spots that took me years of studying to find. It took him only 2 weeks with no direction to get funneled right into hyper scalping.
Obviously he is very small size right now, but this is the exact process that has been occurring for 3 years now. And the other traders' 6-12+ months ahead of him are already influencing price action.
Fact: When a few people all buy/sell the same exact spot, price is going to respond. When 100's or 1000's are doing it, you are changing markets in real time. Here is how it is changing price action...
You can think of hyper scalpers like "exaggerators" of market movements. On the frontside, they are pushing these stocks higher and longer with less reasonable dips. On the backside, they are getting liquidated in rug candles and halt downs with less reasonable bounces. In the consolidations, they are constantly buying and selling on top of each other leading to some soaks and stuffs.
Those crazy all day halt names you see. There are 100's of hyper scalpers buying those unhalt washes and selling the halt bands and rinse repeating the whole way up. Then on the way down, they are getting crushed buying dips.
Big players still need to initiate moves, but hyper scalpers are like fuel to the fire, in both directions. And the amount of fuel entering small cap markets has been steadily growing for 2 years now.
Small cap cycles used to operate on a couple month basis. Hot, neutral, cold, neutral, hot, and so on. But now a single day of activity can ignite a frenzy of fomo buying and a couple poorly timed offerings can kill the cycle overnight.
The hyper scalpers are here to stay, and they are undeniably bringing MORE edge to the markets on both sides. A lot more edge. I personally believe hyper scalpers are a huge net POSITIVE to small cap markets.
Change does not automatically equal bad. And that is a common flaw in human nature. We instinctively are anti-change. Meanwhile, the ones who accept change and adapt the fastest remain the most competitive.
If you learn to adapt to wider ranges, quicker cycles, and more volatility, the opportunity for a small cap trader is now easily into the high 7 figure and low 8 figure range.
The action will only continue to get more competitive as time passes, so the takeaway from this post is that you must always be observing and adapting your trading.
How many top traders of 2020-2021 markets have we seen stagnate?
The current change in small cap markets is on a lesser scale than covid markets and is far more gradual, but it is still extremely noticeable and requires adaptation.
End.
Thanks for reading please drop a comment if you wanted to agree/disagree with something or just add your point of view for discussion.
Follow me on ig 'kycefn' for my personal life.
Cheers.
@professorDman1 You really shouldn’t say there is no risk at all! There is always risk in trading. The stock price can keep going down and go to a couple cents since it’s been on a long term downtrend! I understand that you are holding a big bag so hopefully it goes up so you can unload soon!