XBT CRYPTO

7 years in the market | Derivatives Trader @ScalpXOfficial |

$BTC Decoding Crypto Cycles | Cycles Mastery

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[Killa @KillaXBT]

I can’t believe how dry the crypto space is right now.

Probably the worst it has ever been.

Unfortunately, I don’t think we are ever going to surpass the 2020-2021 $BTC era.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

$BTC

FOMC was indeed the pivot. Inverse narrative move.

We saw a -7% drop. As always, smart money positioned into the news, then de-risked after.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

GM ☕️

[Killa @KillaXBT]

$BTC

Time to fuck around and find out.

Will it hold, or will it break? 🙈

[Killa @KillaXBT]

If you like $SOL at $90 you are going to love it at $50.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

Come on @cz_binance fight back.

You gonna let me win again? $BTC

[Killa @KillaXBT]

$BTC

Rising wedge is forming on the daily.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

"Patterns do not work"

Bet, hold my beer... $BTC

[Killa @KillaXBT]

$BTC | Follow your plan - no exceptions.

Traders don’t fail because of the TA itself, but because of the emotional volatility triggered by the market.

Intense euphoria during sharp pumps and deep despair during sudden dumps... that clouds judgment and disrupts discipline.

As I’ve emphasized before, successful trading isn’t about being the smartest person in the room, it’s about accurately reading the market for what it is, without letting your own mind become the biggest obstacle.

It’s not you versus the market, it’s you versus yourself.

To master the market, you must first master your mind.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

Posting this again because it’s still my core thesis.

Nothing has changed for me, structurally and fundamentally, we remain in a downtrend.

The moment I see $BTC sweep below 60K is when my bias flips bullish.

Until then, this is still what I am observing.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

$BTC

CME closed 70,058.

You already know the drill with weekend gaps. Target them sunday evening.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

My Monday strategy is still working FYI.

Over the past ~6 months, you could’ve shorted $BTC 20/24 Mondays and caught at least a 3% drop each time.

Only 4/24 Mondays actually formed local bottoms.

And this isn’t just hindsight stats, I’ve been calling this out since 110K.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

$BTC

It’s not the scenario I’m leaning toward, especially given my short bias, but it’s still within the realm of possibility.

Markets don’t always follow fractals perfectly, so there’s room for deviation.

However, if BTC fails to break below 68K, this fractal could play out. A drop below 68K would invalidate the setup, so it’s a key level to watch closely.

Just to be clear, I’m not targeting this scenario and I’m not looking to long here. Just a interesting pattern.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

$BTC | Range breakdown.

Currently, BTC is trading below the weekly open (72.8K), with the grey box acting as a key pivot zone.

If BTC accepts back into range & maintains below 72.8K, that opens the doors to 68.4K. Lose that level, and continuation toward 66K becomes likely.

On the flip side, if BTC can reclaim 71.4K (previous range high), we look for a push into 72.8K. That level is critical, flip it into support, and we open the door for a move toward 75.9K highs.

For now, BTC is stuck mid range, with slightly more bearish price action as we have not flipped 71.4K.

Until that changes: trade the range.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

$BTC

BTC tested 68.4K.

CME closed at 70.1K, creating a gap below the close. As always, these gaps tend to have a high probability of being filled.

If we push up to fill the gap and see a rejection followed by downside continuation, there’s a strong probability we retest the 66K level next week.

As mentioned in my previous post, the overall structure remains bearish while price stays below 71.4K.

You already know, I’m still short, just sharing a quick update on how market structure is developing.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

$BTC clinging on for dear life.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

It’s hard to ignore the timing of everything right now.

$BTC is down about 50%, TradFI markets are sitting in a massive bubble, and at the same time, global tensions are rising, especially between Iran, Israel, and the US.

This is a period of pure uncertainty, and it’s precisely during these times that Bitcoin was designed to shine.

Bad news doesn’t just happen randomly. When liquidity tightens, it creates the perfect conditions for fear to spread. Headlines, crises, and market shocks are amplified and timed, so that most people panic and sell. In contrast, those controlling the flow of capital quietly capitalize on that panic.

This cycle repeats, again and again: stress is created, the masses react, and profits are made, all while the system moves along a hidden, larger rhythm. Over decades... and even centuries, these dynamics repeat.

The actors, asset classes, and headlines change, but the core mechanics, the timing, the clustering of risk, and the peaks and troughs of these macro cycles, remain the same.

These patterns are orchestrated at the highest levels, running in parallel to markets that we often perceive as purely "spontaneous".

Once you recognize these patterns, what seems like random chaos is actually part of a much larger, ongoing cycle, guided by powerful forces. The details and names shift, but the structure remains constant.

With all that said, these events always hit hardest when $BTC is in a bear market. 90% will capitulate, but the 10% will be buying through all the geopolitical chaos.

I might be short term bearish, but don’t mistake that for where we are in the cycle. Iran/Israel/US tensions will escalate, markets will capitulate further, and that, my friends, is exactly where BTC bottoms.

I suggest reading The Fourth Turning

[Killa @KillaXBT]

This is what you call... $BTC

Peak. F*cking. Performance.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

$BTC

As noted in my previous update, the plan remained unchanged.

Still short & strong.

Looking for a equal hedge around 65–66K. Invalidation in Image.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

Weekly Close... $BTC

Currently, the weekly close is not looking particularly pretty. We first formed a long wick (entire pump retraced). The following candle filled the entire wick and closed above 71.4K highs.

The next wick (last week’s wick) swept above the highs and instantly retraced the entire pump, violently pushing price back down.

I observe things from a psychological standpoint, (what does this tell us, who was trapped, who is exposed, and what’s likely to happen next?)

Well, as of now, longs have been obliterated, continuation longs, breakout longs, and even mid-range longs. We have a CME gap at 70K which is yet to be filled and can act as resistance on a revisit. If we push to 70K this week, observe the reaction, a rejection confirms the trend is very bearish on the LTF.

In terms of key structure we need to hold... the monthly open sits at 66.9K, which is something to observe for a reaction/acceptance above. However, the key areas on the HTF sit around 65.9K down to 64.7K. Lose that and bulls can say goodnight, because sub-60K is coming.

Until then, I think its plausible to expect a bearish retest before continuation lower. It’s clear bears are in control, retracing the move right back into range.

In my opinion, all I see is a push to the CME gap to bait late shorts, and then a continuation lower. Again, CMEs can take a while to fill, but eventually, they fill.