3 years of data on NQ's Opening Range Breakout👇
How often does NQ break:
> *one* side of the OR
> *both* sides
> *neither* side
Here I'm using the first 1h as the opening range (9:30-10:30am EST), and using a 5m close to validate a "break" of the opening range high/low
Will use 🟢/🔴 etc. to identify the largest probabilities across all days
Monday:
> breakouts: 47.06%🟢🟢🟢🟢🟢
> breakdowns: 31.37%🔴
> double breaks: 14.38%🟡🟡🟡
> no breaks: 7.19%⚪⚪⚪⚪
Tuesday:
> breakouts: 43.95%🟢🟢🟢
> breakdowns: 38.22%🔴🔴🔴🔴
> double breaks: 11.46%🟡🟡
> no breaks: 6.37%⚪⚪⚪
Wednesday:
> breakouts: 36.77%🟢
> breakdowns: 33.55%🔴🔴
> double breaks: 25.16%🟡🟡🟡🟡🟡
> no breaks: 4.52%⚪⚪
Thursday:
> breakouts: 42.31%🟢🟢
> breakdowns: 38.46%🔴🔴🔴🔴
> double breaks: 14.74%🟡🟡🟡🟡
> no breaks: 4.49%⚪
Friday:
> breakouts: 44.45%🟢🟢🟢🟢
> breakdowns: 37.25%🔴🔴🔴
> double breaks: 9.8%🟡
> no breaks: 8.5%⚪⚪⚪⚪⚪
Imo the most interesting part of this is double breaks. Wednesdays have a ~25% probability, which is almost double the next highest day (Thursday) at ~15%.
So 1 out of ~4 Wednesdays experienced a double break of the IB/first hour with the conditions described above (5m close through IB high and low). Compare that to Friday where only 1 out of ~10 days experienced a double break. Big difference, good to know when framing daily expectations
The other elements of this report aren't as surprising but still good to know. Ex: across all days of the week in this 3 year period, only 6.2% of days were no break days. And on average the breakout days are slightly more likely to occur than breakdown days. Not surprising - look at a monthly chart on NQ and it goes up
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@DrProfitCrypto this guy is like Morphues in the film MATRIX, premium membership is like pure cheatcode and glitch for the matrix nobody do psycological analisys like this man, good bless you
@doctortraderr Hi bro
, this cant be consider a fully liquidity sweep, at least candle must close red, if you can use advanced order flow tool,by footprint try to find out trapped delta on order flow, and you will know exatly with 99% if it is a liquidity sweep.