Kit Webster

AI consultant to SMBs

[Kit Webster @KitWebster]

@MatthewWielicki I would throw out a hunch that more than one variable is involved.

[Kit Webster @KitWebster]

@FlexOnPatrol @MatthewWielicki Irrelevant, no, irrelevant to the current conversation, yes. Moving on is a great idea. Hint - start back at the beginning to see that this is not about global warming but about a straw man put up about cold deaths.

[Kit Webster @KitWebster]

Yeah. Reasonable point, but different discussion - particularly since Wielicki is arguing against global warming in the first place. The discussion was about heat waves. But I was curious, so I asked Claude what the evidence was for reduced deaths from cold because of global warming. Of course, there has been relatively little global warming to date and there is a lot of noise in the data, and weather is different from climate, so I was not sure what to expect. It boils down to correlation and causation: "So, to answer precisely: there is credible evidence that cold-related mortality declined over the 2000–2019 warming period, and warming plausibly contributed; there is not solid evidence isolating warming as the cause, and the net "benefit" is short-term and disappears in projections of continued warming.

[Kit Webster @KitWebster]

@CkingsonK @Polymarket Very good catch!
AI tells me, "because the matches were played in massive American football stadiums that dwarfed the capacity of venues used in previous or subsequent tournaments. "

[Kit Webster @KitWebster]

@SasquatchH4269 @pennyworth63000 @MatthewWielicki Good on ya. Keep up the good work.

[Kit Webster @KitWebster]

@davidwcpf @MatthewWielicki TTFN

[Kit Webster @KitWebster]

@davidwcpf @MatthewWielicki And my second point is atmospheric density.
And my third point is atmospheric composition.
Most of the time, problems are described using more than one variable.
Reading entire propositions is a useful habit.

[Kit Webster @KitWebster]

@SasquatchH4269 @pennyworth63000 @MatthewWielicki You just like trolling, right? That's your thing?

[Kit Webster @KitWebster]

Um, no.
Read the post again.
Distance from the sun is important, but what happens to the radiation when it hits the planet is also important.
Venus has a much greater atmospheric pressure than Mercury, which essentially has none, and it is, as Wielicki says, about 95% carbon dioxide, so it is building up and retaining heat that is making Venus much hotter.

[Kit Webster @KitWebster]

@pennyworth63000 @SasquatchH4269 @MatthewWielicki Huh? Ok, you win. I won't quote Velikovsky.

[Kit Webster @KitWebster]

It only makes sense when you understand that "will make the planet uninhabitable" is one of your straw men. The 2 degree mark was an informed guess as to the point things would become worse at an increasing rate. It never was existential. The status quo would be disrupted - sea level rise, crop geography moved, ecological effects, change everywhere - so, not fun. But not existential.

[Kit Webster @KitWebster]

@largefamdad Public schools may or may not be a scam, but that's different from your argument. Public schools, as statistics demonstrate, are failing essentially all students. But, that's a fairly recent phenomenon. Public schools were never meant to serve high IQ students (or low IQ students). They are meant to serve the middle of that bell curve, maybe with a scew to the right. AP courses and magnet schools are meant to help high IQ students, but you have to live in a district that supports those, and, unfortunately, even many districts which have them are taking them away because of budget issues or in the name of "equity." Low IQ students have special ed, but as the father of a special ed kid in a highly-regarded district, I understand how limited and lip-servicey those programs are. Your child is going to have to do what most high IQ kids who can't afford private schooling have had to do for decades, and that is, do it yourself. Books used to be the gateway to expanding knowledge, but today, with AI, the horizons are almost unlimited and I am very jealous. Schools can't help - they are not designed to help.

[Kit Webster @KitWebster]

Yep, all true. Not sure I indicated any comfort in my original post. I thought I agreed with all of the original points. My additional points are that there is a peak population out there and it is the primary consumers that are peaking. When the overall peak happens depends on your sources and I have no dog in the hunt. As you note, UN middle prediction is a peak at 10.3 billion, up from current 8.4, in 2084. Essentially all of that increase comes from lower-propensity consumers in Africa and the Middle East. Our predicament may be parlous, but, given the timeframes, absent some catastrophe, it is our predicament. The discussion might focus less on hand wringing and more on what might be done about it. I have no idea, and, following a great deal of research for my book - Steve will love the title - Capitalism is Past Its Sell-By Date - I can't find anyone else who does, other than the degrowth folks.

[Kit Webster @KitWebster]

@Polymarket Does it work on sloping roofs?

[Kit Webster @KitWebster]

@WolfgangRichtEU Wolfgang, you need to shake the dust out of your abacus. 15% of a trillion dollars is 150 billion dollars. The US spends that about every week.
This is either facetious or Germans are really bad at math. (Since nobody puts the results of math contests in their bios, I am thinking facetious, all around.)
Or, there were only 16 people in that math contest.
Looking at your comments, there are two separate issues - 1) opinions of Musk, 2) your prowess at math and understanding about the way the world works.

[Kit Webster @KitWebster]

@ryankatzrosene @hausfath I don't even know how to react to an "analysis" that shows that, if things slow down, the result is a lower accumulation.
Underwhelmed, probably.
Then the prof states that things we are doing are up to us.
Still underwhelmed.