1/
On 30 December 2026, a new EU law changes global agri trade.
If you sell coffee, cocoa, timber, palm oil, soy, cattle or rubber into the EU, you'll need to prove it wasn't grown on land deforested after 31 Dec 2020 β with GPS coordinates for every plot.
Or lose the EU market. EUDR, explained. π§΅
Kenya sends over half its coffee to the EU β 55-60%, per its own Agriculture and Food Authority.
As of July last year, 30% of the national coffee area had been geo-mapped. 16 of 33 counties. The government has been racing to close the rest.
The stakes, in their own numbers: ~KES 90 BILLION in EU export earnings.
800,000 smallholder farmers. ~500 cooperatives. 16 months to the deadline.
The gap is the risk. The gap is also the opportunity β mapping + satellite history is exactly what the free tools can now do.
8/
The evidence layer for "deforestation-free since 2020" already exists β free public satellites have been recording every plot on Earth the whole time.
What's missing is the tool that turns those archives into filed evidence. (That's the thing I'm building. More this week.)
Bookmark + share with anyone who ships to the EU. π
7/
And that's the actual bottleneck. Not the paperwork β the ground truth.
Hundreds of thousands of plots across East Africa, West Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America, unmapped, with 16 months to the deadline for their buyers.
5/
Next, the big one: the deforestation-since-31-Dec-2020 flag. That date is the EUDR cutoff β the exact question every EU-bound coffee, cocoa and timber shipment must answer by December.
6/
Roadmap layer: radar. Sentinel-1 sees through clouds entirely β different physics, different signal, also free. Fusing it in is on the list for exactly the plots where optical coverage runs thin.
Clouds don't break satellite verification. Hiding them does.
Nerds, sound off β how do you handle rainy-season gaps?
1/
Hard problem of the week: clouds.
East Africa has two rainy seasons. Optical satellites can't see through rain clouds. My target users are East African farms.
You see the issue. Here's how the checker handles gaps in the time series. π§΅
5/
Layer 3 β the one that matters for compliance: report the gaps.
Every check states its temporal coverage: how many clear observations, over which windows. A "no deforestation signal" is only as strong as the looks behind it, so the number goes on the report. An auditor should never have to ask.