The Kobeissi Letter (private)

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[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US oil prices surge above $113/barrel for the first time since June 2022.

Oil futures are now up +68% this month, on track for their biggest monthly gain in history.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US stock market futures extend losses, with the S&P 500 now down -$1.3 trillion on the day, as US oil prices rise above $115/barrel:

1. S&P 500: -2.3%
2. Nasdaq 100: -2.7%
3. Dow Jones: -2.4%
4. WTI Crude: +26.5%
5. Brent: +23.0%
6. Natural Gas: +9.0%

We should see US gas prices nearing $5/gallon soon.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: As US oil prices now near $120/barrel, our models indicate that if current levels are sustained for 3 months, US CPI inflation would rise to ~3.7%.

This would put US inflation at its highest level since September 2023.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US oil prices fall -$15/barrel in under 2 hours, now trading below $104/barrel, on reports that G7 countries are considering releasing 400 million barrels of crude oil reserves.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US oil prices extend their reversal, now dropping below $100/barrel and up just +9% on the day.

We are witnessing one of the biggest daily crude oil reversals in history.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US oil prices fall below $99.50/barrel, now officially down -$20/barrel in 10 hours.

Oil prices have gone from +30% on the day to +8%.

S&P 500 futures are up +100 points from their low.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US oil prices fall below $98/barrel continuing a historic reversal, now up just +7.5% on the day.

12 hours ago, oil prices were up +30% on the day.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump is reviewing a "set of options" to lower oil prices as soon as today amid their historic surge, per Reuters.

Details include:

1. Options include restricting US exports, intervening in oil futures markets, and waiving some federal taxes

2. Trump could also lift requirements under the Jones Act, which says domestic fuel must move only on US-flagged ships

3. The White House is "worried" that the surge in oil prices will hurt US businesses and consumers

4. Trump is reportedly considering the mid-term election implications of higher oil prices

US oil prices are now below $95/barrel.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The S&P 500 pares losses, now down just -0.2% on the day, as oil prices fall below $95/barrel.

The S&P 500 is now 4% away from a new record high.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Israeli officials are "growing concerned" about the escalating war with Iran and suggesting possible "exit ramps," per the Washington Post.

Details include:

1. "Exit ramps" are being discussed amid concerns over the region and global economy

2. Talk of an "endgame" is early and decision rests largely with President Trump

3. Trump has "wavered" among several conceptions of the outcome

4. "I’m not sure it’s in our interest to fight until the regime is toppled," said an Israeli official

We are closer to Step #7 of our "Conflict Playbook."

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Lebanon has asked the Trump Administration to broker direct peace talks with Israel, per Axios.