A common notion in the market when things go parabolic is to look for the 0.78. Above it, a new trend follows, below it: it was just a take out leverage rally. #nasdaq
People trying to create short squeezes after the largest yearly opex is done, and we’re pushing downwards on nothing but back to back trash financial news. With the highest bull sentiment and call ratio since 2018.
Confirmation on downtrend did the same that 4222 did for the bulls yesterday. Overextended a little into a bear trap. Now for a gap fill towards 4205-4209, before we either capitulate towards 4163 or surge above 4231. Make or break tomorrow!
Both scenarios played out, only for it to be a bull trap at the 4220s level. Today should be a bit of chop (4180s-4209) before a reaction around 2 hours into the day. It could do a V reversal above 4215, confirmation on downtrend below 4170. #spx
Both scenarios played out, only for it to be a bull trap at the 4220s level. Today should be a bit of chop (4180s-4209) before a reaction around 2 hours into the day. It could do a V reversal above 4215, confirmation on downtrend below 4170. #spx
Next week’s gameplan: above 4222 -> 4266 -> 4326. Below 4187 -> 4100 -> 4040. #nasdaq at 0.618 with the last gap fill above. #spx 4217 gap fill. Upper 3 top fractal channel at 4222 is a resistance. However if it is the 3top, we should reject before hitting it.
Reminder for EOQ (6/30) $JPM / $JHEQX collar: short 4320c, long 3885p, and short 3280p. Don't rule out bear capitulation above 4222 to 4300 (4326 wick high) before the quarter ends, lives in my head rent free. Last quarter they hit with all positions.