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[Kpler @Kpler]

French demand curve shifts

Last week's heatwave across Western Europe gave the French load curve an evening makeover. Air conditioning added an estimated 3 to 4 GW of afternoon demand, shifting peak load from 10 am to 5pm (UTC). #Solar generation covered much of the midday increase, but as output declined, demand remained elevated. The result was a sharp evening price response, with quarter-hourly prices exceeding €170/MWh and flexible generation stepping in to meet demand.

Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://t.co/BmcPh0jrg5

[Kpler @Kpler]

Hormuz traffic remains constrained

Confirmed Strait of Hormuz crossings held at 10 over the weekend, remaining lower than the previous weekend and reflecting a more restricted operating environment. Most activity involved low risk, non commercial vessels, with only limited commercial participation and a small presence of shadow or sanctioned fleet movements. All observed crossings used the Iranian Route, extending the streak to seven consecutive days without a return to IMO designated routing.While no new #vessel attacks have been recorded since 26 May, transit conditions remain fragile and signal interference lingers.

Ongoing negotiations covering sanctions, nuclear commitments, ceasefire arrangements and navigation rights continue to influence market sentiment. For shipping markets, constrained routing patterns indicate that operational risk remains elevated despite the recent pause in physical incidents.

Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://t.co/vQAUi6xgi6

[Kpler @Kpler]

Japan LNG demand softens

Japan’s March gas demand data point to softer LNG consumption in 2026, driven by weaker residential and commercial demand despite resilient industrial activity. With total #LNG inventories projected to reach about 5.1 mt by end June, buyers face little urgency to secure spot cargoes. The outlook reduces support for prompt Asian LNG prices, although hotter weather or supply disruptions could tighten balances later in Q3.

Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://t.co/Vg3bCArJnP

[Kpler @Kpler]

Korea LNG demand cools

South Korea enters summer with tighter LNG balances, lower inventories and weather forecasts pointing to above-normal temperatures. That would typically support stronger procurement. Recent cargo diversions into South Korea suggest continued supply management through June–July. However, firmer #nuclear utilisation and sustained coal-fired generation are expected to curb gas-for-power demand through Q3, offsetting warmer weather and resilient non-power consumption. Kpler Insight has revised its 2026 #LNG demand forecast down by 0.1 mt to 46.0 mt. While tighter balances may lend some support to procurement activity and regional prices, spot Asian LNG price direction remains primarily driven by geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz.

Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://t.co/K7AChdoMyB

[Kpler @Kpler]

Kpler Energy Intelligence Day Korea 2026 wraps up

Kpler Energy Intelligence Day Korea 2026 has officially wrapped up, marking another successful edition and continued growth in engagement across the Korean market.

The event brought together industry leaders, market participants, and Kpler experts for discussions across #energy, #shipping, commodities intelligence, and AI-driven market analysis.

A key highlight was the signing of an MOU between Kpler and KOBC, further strengthening collaboration across the maritime and commodities ecosystem.
Thank you to our speakers, clients, partners, and the wider Kpler team for making it a success.

[Kpler @Kpler]

Hormuz LNG flows resume

Another Adnoc-linked LNG tanker has crossed the Strait of Hormuz, with Umm Al Ashtan now signalling arrival in India on 31 May after loading at Das Island. Its voyage adds to a growing number of confirmed LNG transits through the route, following recent QatarEnergy-linked crossings toward Pakistan and China. For #LNG markets, the data point suggests Gulf exports are still moving, although exposure remains material given Hormuz handles about 20% of Gulf LNG flows.

Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://t.co/iL9XDLEeRe

[Kpler @Kpler]

Strait of Hormuz | Vessel Crossings Update

Confirmed SOH crossings across the monitored zone fell to just two on 25 May, extending a pattern of higher weekend passages followed by weaker weekday activity.

Both vessels used the Iranian Route, while no new physical attacks have been recorded since 10 May and signal interference continues.
The low count suggests traffic remains narrow, route-dependent, and shaped by Iranian clearance practices. Negotiations between the US and Iran remain the key variable, with access likely to stay selective until a clearer framework for navigation is agreed.

Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://t.co/qTPpCt5jf9

[Kpler @Kpler]

China’s crude pullback

China’s sharp decline in #crude imports has unintentionally eased feedstock tightness across Asia. With May imports tracking near 6.6 mbd, the lowest since 2016, more Middle Eastern, Russian, African and Atlantic Basin barrels have become available to refiners elsewhere. Asia ex-China runs are now expected near 14.8 mbd, up roughly 900 kbd month on month, though still well below last year’s levels. A rebound in Chinese buying could quickly tighten balances again.

Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://t.co/nrq3VPIrS7

[Kpler @Kpler]

Limited LNG shipments continue in the Strait of Hormuz

Three laden #LNG vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, reinforcing continued Gulf energy export flows despite elevated geopolitical risk. Al Hamra carried an ADNOC cargo from Das Island towards India, while Fuwairit and Al Rayyan transited the strait with QatarEnergy cargoes bound for Pakistan and China respectively. This brings total laden transits to 7 since the start of the conflict.

Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://t.co/Rj7uV0DsQ4

[Kpler @Kpler]

Why the real oil shock may begin when China returns

Global #oil markets have avoided a sustained price spike despite the loss of significant Middle Eastern supply. A major reason is China’s absence from the crude market. Chinese refiners have sharply reduced imports amid weak margins, slowing domestic demand and elevated prices, helping ease pressure on global balances. But inventories are now drawing lower, independent refiners are cutting runs, and state owned refiners may soon need to return to the market. If Chinese buying resumes alongside peak summer demand in Europe and the US, today’s uneasy equilibrium could quickly give way to a much tighter oil market.

Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://t.co/5qoPXphppq

[Kpler @Kpler]

Grains fundamentals: Geopolitics fuel grain market volatility

With no clear end to the Middle East conflict, renewed US-China trade developments and still-elevated fertiliser costs, grain markets are entering a more volatile phase. Join Kpler analysts on 27 May as they break down the forces shaping #corn, #wheat and #grains markets in the months ahead.

Key topics include:
◾Middle East: Grain and fertiliser trade update
◾USDA outlook: Considerations for the new crop season
◾US-China trade: Implications of the latest agricultural trade agreement
◾Corn demand: Scenarios and their market impact
◾Fertiliser: Consequences of a stronger market
◾Crop development: Sitrep across major exporters

Speakers: Ishan Bhanu and Matt Darragh

Register here: https://t.co/t7Fyf2Q5i4

[Kpler @Kpler]

Missed our live webinar on the Tanker Market Q2 Outlook?

Get a quick sneak peek into the key discussions shaping global #tanker markets — from shifting freight dynamics and clean-to-dirty switching to evolving Atlantic and MEG balances.

Hear insights from:
◾ Matt Wright, Principal Freight Analyst - Insight
◾ Panagiotis Krontiras, Tanker Freight Analyst
as they unpack the trends influencing dirty and clean tanker rates in 2026.

Watch the teaser below and catch the full on-demand webinar here: https://t.co/BEdIhYVH08

[Kpler @Kpler]

Strait of Hormuz | Vessel Crossings

Confirmed Strait of Hormuz transits rose to 10 on 20 May from four the previous day, while the IRGC Navy stated that 26 vessels were underway following coordination and approval procedures with Iranian authorities. 

Most movements involved commercial west to east traffic, with no new Iranian export loadings observed. Although activity remained broadly low risk, it included two sanctioned vessels and one shadow vessel, while opaque routing patterns picked up d/d. Reports suggest Tehran is preparing a permit based transit framework to present in negotiations, potentially involving vessel vetting, state coordination and safe passage fees.

The emerging structure points to a more formalised IRGC managed clearance regime. Mobility is improving incrementally, but access remains conditional, politically controlled and exposed to rapid disruption.

[Kpler @Kpler]

Japan LNG costs climb (JLC)

Japan’s LNG import costs are expected to rise sharply through Q3 as elevated crude prices progressively feed into oil indexed LNG contracts with a three to five month lag. Kpler Insight forecasts JLC increasing from around $10.74/MMBtu in March to roughly $17.50/MMBtu by July. Firmer Asian spot #LNG prices, tightening Henry Hub fundamentals and sustained shipping disruptions are also contributing to higher delivered costs. The outlook highlights how Japan’s contract heavy LNG procurement structure can delay, but not avoid, the impact of global energy market volatility.

Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://t.co/1TaonvbcpL

[Kpler @Kpler]

Kpler acquires CITAC to expand African intelligence coverage

We are pleased to announce Kpler’s acquisition of @CITACAfrica, the leading market intelligence firm for Africa’s downstream energy sector. The acquisition expands our global Insight offering, adding regional expertise, proprietary data and deeper visibility into one of the world’s most strategically important #energy markets.

“This acquisition is about delivering sharper, more actionable insights to our clients,” said Mark Cunningham, CEO of Kpler. 

Read more here: https://t.co/wHTGulLnew

[Kpler @Kpler]

Blockade pressures Iran

The US blockade is emerging as the central pressure point in Washington’s Iran strategy. No Iranian #crude tanker has crossed the blockade line since 13 April, while loadings have dropped from 2.1 mbd to 640 kbd. With inventories rising and barrels available to China shrinking, Iran’s effective #oil export revenues could approach zero within 60 to 70 days if the blockade holds.

Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://t.co/XDOMXWtpQS

[Kpler @Kpler]

Kpler Energy Intelligence Day | Korea

Global energy markets are being reshaped in real time — and Korea stands at the center of it. Join us next week at Kpler Energy Intelligence Day — a must attend gathering of leading analysts, industry experts, and energy decision-makers exploring the future of #oil, gas, #LNG, LPG, freight, and AI-driven intelligence.

From geopolitical tensions to shifting trade flows and intensifying competition for supply, this is where market leaders come to gain the insights that matter most.

Sign up here: https://t.co/fAzVVpLFe6

[Kpler @Kpler]

US refiners at capacity

US downstream operations are running at full capacity as refiners respond to tightening global fuel balances and surging export demand. Refinery utilisation is averaging close to 93%, supported by strong distillate and #gasoline margins, lighter maintenance schedules, and rising reliance on Atlantic Basin supply. US refined product exports have surged to record levels while domestic inventories have fallen by roughly 55 million barrels since early March, leaving product balances at five year lows. With the summer driving season approaching, any additional refinery outage could tighten markets further and increase pressure on already constrained global supply chains.

Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://t.co/HUwDm7QpJT

[Kpler @Kpler]

Kpler is proud to be sponsoring the Australian Energy Producers Conference & Exhibition 2026.

As one of the region’s key #energy industry gatherings, the event brings together leaders and stakeholders across the gas, #LNG, and wider energy value chain to discuss the future of energy, market developments, and industry innovation. Our team will be onsite throughout the event and we look forward to connecting with clients, partners, and industry peers.

Visit us at Booth 195 to learn more about how Kpler’s market intelligence and data solutions are helping businesses navigate the evolving global energy landscape.