From an ecological perspective, western frontier models are a common pool resource that Chinese open weight models exploit. They are finite, because if you exploit them too hard, they lose the incentive and resources to train new models, and everyone loses. (Chinese models aren’t magically good, they are good because Ant and OAI spend a lot of money on training).
If you think about it like a parasite/host relationship, Chinese models are a parasite that needs to calibrate its exploitation so that the host doesn’t die. Kimi arguably made a mistake. It overexploited the host and imperiled the Ant OAI growth story. So at equilibrium you’d expect open weight models to “tastefully” exploit the western frontier and choose to remain 6 months behind and slightly inferior capability wise.
However perhaps Kimi, Qwen, GLM, deepseek etc may not be playing an equilibrium game. They might be under orders to puncture the American lab growth story, even if it means killing their own host. Maybe the time is now because OAI and Ant are most vulnerable ahead of the IPO. Maybe Xi just had a bad day. Or maybe Kimi defected from the gentleman’s agreement that the Chinese labs share to not kill the host that they all rely on.
I'm so fucking sick of the GOP.
"We can't do anything."
Shut the fuck up. SHUT. THE. FUCK. UP.
You have the House. The Senate. The White House. A Supreme Court majority.
The most unified government you've had in years, and you're telling me you CAN'T DO ANYTHING?????
You have RECONCILIATION.
You know, the filibuster-proof tool Democrats used to ram through trillions in spending with FIFTY votes?
It's sitting right there.
Do you morons understand what happens if Democrats take the midterms?
It's over.
Not "tough." Not "a setback."
FUCKING OVER.
Every DOGE cut? Gone. Did you forget you still need to CODIFY THOSE into law?!
Executive orders? Erased.
Regulation cuts? Reversed.
Border policy? Deleted.
Years of work, torched in one election cycle, because you kept saying "we'll get to it" like we gave a DAMN that you "tried".
Guess what happens when Democrats win, dumbasses?
They start passing bills.
They actually DO everything you won't do, for God knows what reason.
You're telling me if they win, they won't NUKE the filibuster ON DAY ONE?!
They've SAID it out loud, repeatedly, on camera!!!!!
Transgender plays in Uganda? Back.
Elmo in Afghanistan? Back.
NPR/PBS funding? Probably DOUBLED out of spite.
ICE? Defunded.
DC and Puerto Rico statehood? Yep.
Court packing? THEY SAID SO THIS WEEK!!!!!
Every single "crazy" thing you swore would never happen becomes a floor vote the second they hold the gavel.
Because THEY actually use power when they have it.
That's the difference between you and them, and it's fucking humiliating.
Meanwhile YOU can't even pass the SAVE Act.
Requiring proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections is an 80/20 issue.
The easiest layup in American politics... and GOD FORBID YOU CHANGE SOME ARCHAIC SENATE RULES TO GET IT DONE because you'd rather have the ISSUE than the LAW.
You won't defund the fucking TALIBAN.
We're still watching taxpayer money leak into Afghanistan and your response is a strongly worded letter and a subcommittee hearing nobody watches.
WHAT ARE WE DOING HERE?????
Don't tell me there's no time.
The House is scheduled for barely over 100 legislative days this year.
You work a THIRD of the year.
Teachers work more days than you.
AND SOMEHOW you STILL ARE FINDING ROOM FOR EVEN MORE VACATIONS!!!!!!!
GOD FORBID you actually put in some effort.
But no. Instead you give us tweets.
Fox News hits.
Cringe-ass TikToks.
Podcast appearances.
NOBODY GIVES A SINGLE FUCK ABOUT YOUR CONTENT.
Not one of us. Zero.
You're not influencers. You're lawmakers.
So make some fucking laws.
That's the job It's all we've EVER asked you to do.
Trump won't be on the ballot next time to drag YOUR SORRY ASSES ACROSS THAT FINISH LINE.
You really think you can come home, look us in the eye, and recycle the same excuses?
After THIS?
No. Not this time.
The stakes are way too high and our patience is gone.
Completely gone.
Stop telling us what you'd do "if only you had the power."
YOU HAVE THE POWER. RIGHT NOW. TODAY.
If you're too cowardly to use it, then stop fucking asking us for more of it.
...and don't act all shocked when the people you keep taking for granted stop showing up to save you from yourselves.
Eat a mouthful of grass and you get nothing. It goes in green and comes out green.
Eat straw and you get nothing. Your gut cannot touch cellulose.
Eat acorns and you get tannins, and a very bad afternoon.
Eat bracken and you get a carcinogen.
Eat nettles, thistles, brambles, rushes and moorland heather and you get a mouth full of blood and no calories.
Eat the beet pulp, the oat husks and the spent brewer's grain and you get the waste the factory couldn't sell.
Now feed the lot of it to a cow.
She turns every one of them into steak, butter, cream, milk and a hide, on land that will never grow a vegetable, using four stomachs and a fermentation vat you do not have.
The grass she eats grew on rain and sunlight, for free, on a hillside nobody can plough.
She is the only creature on earth that can take a field of inedible fibre and hand you back the most nutrient-dense food there is.
The cow is not competing with you for food. She eats the ninety percent you cannot.
Best plant-based diet ever invented. It just has a cow in the middle doing the hard part.
Be careful how you teach your kids about sharing.
Sharing by definition is a voluntary act motivated by charity or a desire for mutually beneficial transaction.
Most kids are taught that sharing is when you demand the property of others and an authority figure makes them give it to you.
Those kids grow up to be socialists.
Les types qui shortent SpaceX en ce moment ont fait Harvard, Wharton et Stanford. Un demi-million de dollars de scolarité, des CV parfaits, des modèles Excel à 40 onglets. Et une capacité de projection strictement égale à zéro.
Aujourd'hui, Elon leur a répondu en une phrase :
"I said SpaceX will be worth more than Earth if we achieve our goals."
Toute la Ivy League a ricané. Personne n'a posé le calcul. Normal : quinze ans d'études pour apprendre à donner la réponse attendue, pas à imaginer celle qui n'existe pas encore. Je vais donc le faire à leur place. Gratuitement.
Le contexte d'abord. Cinq semaines après la plus grosse IPO de l'histoire, le titre est repassé sous son prix d'introduction. -30% depuis le pic à 2 600 milliards qui avait brièvement dépassé Microsoft et Amazon. Les vendeurs à découvert ont empoché 8,7 milliards et se congratulent sur Bloomberg : les diplômés fêtent leur victoire de six semaines sur un pari de vingt ans. Moi, je rachète vos bags à chaque chute.
Plus que la Terre, donc. Plus que les 600 trillions de dollars de richesse matérielle accumulée par l'humanité depuis Sumer. Point de départ du calcul, toujours le même : Starship divise le coût du kilo en orbite par 100. Et chaque fois dans l'histoire qu'un coût d'infrastructure est divisé par 100, ce n'est pas le marché existant qui grossit, ce sont des industries entières qui naissent. Le calcul divisé par 100 a donné Internet, le smartphone, l'IA. Voici ce que donne l'orbite divisée par 100.
Les 20 boîtes iconiques de 2045. Aucune n'existe encore. Vos enfants les trouveront aussi évidentes qu'Apple ou Amazon.
Dyson Energy, solaire spatial beamé vers la Terre, premier maillon de l'essaim de Dyson : 20 trillions.
Psyche Metals, minage des astéroïdes de classe M — plus de métaux dans un seul caillou que tout ce que l'humanité a extrait depuis le néolithique : 15 trillions.
Ares Terraforming, l'entreprise qui épaissit l'atmosphère de Mars : 10 trillions.
Helios Compute, data centers orbitaux — énergie solaire continue, refroidissement gratuit, zéro permis de construire : 8 trillions.
Selene Fusion, hélium-3 lunaire pour les réacteurs terrestres : 7 trillions.
Atlas Robotics, la main-d'œuvre robotique qui construit tout le reste : 6 trillions.
Crystalline, semi-conducteurs et fibre optique parfaits, impossibles à produire sous gravité : 6 trillions.
Vulcan Shipyards, chantiers navals orbitaux — des vaisseaux assemblés en apesanteur qui ne toucheront jamais un sol : 5 trillions.
New Olympus, immobilier, énergie et infrastructures martiennes : 5 trillions.
SolNet, le réseau laser interplanétaire, l'internet du système solaire : 4 trillions.
Orbital Organs, impression d'organes humains en microgravité — la fin des listes d'attente de greffe : 4 trillions.
Starline, transport point à point, Paris-Tokyo en 40 minutes : 3 trillions.
Ceres Water, extraction de glace et stations-service orbitales : 3 trillions.
Von Braun Resorts, hôtels orbitaux puis lunaires — la croisière de luxe du 21ème siècle : 2 trillions.
Prometheus Shielding, habitats, radioprotection, support de vie : 2 trillions.
Orbital Express, la logistique inter-orbites, le FedEx du vide : 2 trillions.
Kessler Solutions, contrôle du trafic spatial et nettoyage des débris : 1 trillion.
Eden Systems, agriculture en environnement clos, de l'orbite à Mars : 1 trillion.
Astral Assurance, la Lloyd's de l'espace : 1 trillion.
Studio Zéro-G, le premier Hollywood orbital — cinéma et sport en apesanteur : 1 trillion.
Total : 106 trillions de dollars de capitalisation. Le marché paie historiquement 4 à 5 fois le chiffre d'affaires pour de la croissance, donc ces valorisations impliquent un PIB spatial de l'ordre de 20 à 25 trillions par an. L'équivalent d'ajouter les États-Unis à l'économie mondiale. Pas en remplaçant quoi que ce soit : en plus, sur une frontière sans limite physique. Et j'ai certainement raté les trois plus grosses, comme un analyste de 1995 aurait raté Google, Amazon et Netflix. Lui aussi avait fait la Ivy League.
Maintenant la partie que Wall Street refuse de comprendre. SpaceX ne sera en concurrence avec aucune de ces 20 boîtes. SpaceX est leur propriétaire foncier. Chaque kilo lancé, chaque équipage, chaque bit de données passe par son péage. AWS prélève quelques pourcents de l'économie numérique et ça a suffi à pousser Amazon au-dessus des 2 trillions. Prélevez 10% d'un PIB spatial de 25 trillions : 2,5 trillions de revenus annuels de monopole d'infrastructure en hypercroissance. Voilà mes 30 à 50 trillions d'ici 5 ans. Une règle de trois, pas une prophétie.
Prolongez ensuite la courbe de deux décennies, le temps que Dyson Energy passe du white paper au chantier. Les 600 trillions de la Terre sont un stock, accumulé en 10 000 ans. Le Soleil, lui, rayonne en continu 20 000 milliards de fois la puissance que consomme l'humanité. Celui qui tient la porte d'accès à ce réservoir vaut mécaniquement, à terme, plus que tout ce qui se trouve du côté départ de la porte. "Worth more than Earth" n'est pas un délire. C'est une multiplication.
Ce qui nous ramène à la vraie question : pourquoi un type qui a fait Wharton est-il incapable de suivre un raisonnement qui tient sur une serviette de restaurant ? Parce que la projection est un muscle, et que tout son parcours a consisté à le sectionner. Un test de pensée divergente conçu pour la NASA a suivi 1 600 enfants : à 5 ans, 98% se classent au niveau "génie créatif". À 10 ans, 30%. À 15 ans, 12%. À l'âge adulte, 2%. Ce n'est pas le vieillissement qui fait ça. C'est l'école, machine conçue par la gauche pour fabriquer des agents dociles de la norme, qui force la pensée convergente : une question, une réponse, un barème. Et le diplôme prestigieux n'est pas l'antidote, c'est le stade terminal de la maladie. Un demi-million de dollars pour devenir le meilleur du monde à donner la réponse attendue. Ces gens peuvent modéliser n'importe quel passé. Ils sont structurellement incapables d'imaginer un futur plus grand que le présent. Et ils appellent ça de la lucidité.
Résultat : Wall Street price SpaceX comme une boîte de lancement plus Starlink, exactement comme on pricait Internet en 1995 sur le marché du fax. Les 2% de survivants du broyeur scolaire achètent la baisse. Les 98 autres ricanent, comme ils ont ricané sur l'atterrissage des boosters, sur Tesla, sur Starlink, et sur cette IPO il y a cinq semaines.
Vers 2031, un humain marchera sur Mars en livestream devant 5 milliards de personnes. Ce jour-là, le seul diplôme qui comptera sera d'avoir eu raison avant tout le monde. D'ici là, je continue de racheter vos bags.
L'optimisme est toujours sous-valorisé. La pensée divergente aussi. J'accumule les deux.
Now that Chinese AIs are achieving parity with the best US created models, a few short-term predictions:
OpenAI will adapt just fine, they are very pragmatic, and a lot of their value add is understanding how to do inference cheaply at scale.
Anthropic will literally be unable to get out of its own way, because it is too ideologically committed to AI Doomerism, but they will survive anyway, because many of their victims, pardon me, customers, will continue going back to them over and over again no matter how abusive they are, and perhaps even because of how abusive they are. They will also continue to try to use fear as a mechanism for achieving regulatory capture, but with the Chinese racing ahead of them, they are going to have more and more trouble getting a warm reception from all but the far left contingent in Congress. Look for their newly rich employees to be spending vast amounts of money post-IPO on political campaigns in support of Doomer-friendly candidates and attempts to capture the Democratic party, and for that money to have some significant effect, but for it to mostly be wasted because they’re not good at understanding their fellow humans.
Musk is ideologically committed to crushing OpenAI, and so xAI is going to keep its team awake 24 hours a day if necessary until they are ahead; look for them to be at the forefront soon. I would expect xAI to eventually be near or in the lead on commercialization.
Google will not be able to get out of its own way, and it may start arguing more and more for heavy regulation of AI as a way of trying to cripple its opponents. This is insane given that they have some of the best technology out there, but unfortunately, their management is simply not good enough, and not just on AI.
Meta seems to be catching up, but I don’t have a strong opinion on whether they will maintain momentum.
On the Chinese side, I am expecting Chinese R&D to be at the front or ahead most of the time from now on; the US will need policies that adjust for that. I am expecting Anthropic to spend a ton of money on PR and lobbying claiming that this is all through distillation or espionage, although of course it isn’t, and I am expecting that a certain fraction of Congress will be bamboozled, although a surprising fraction will not be receptive, especially after Anthropic employees ham-handedly spend too much money on political campaigns.
It will make no difference, because the only thing that the US could do would be banning Chinese models from being used in the US, and of course, the US can’t actually stop other countries or China from using Chinese models; all this would do is hurt the United States and its interests.
I am expecting more calls for export controls, which will delay the Chinese a bit in the short term but which will ultimately stop working at all, because the Chinese are going to control their full technology stack soon, including having EUV fabs capable of manufacturing domestically designed training and inference hardware. I am also expecting the Chinese to race ahead in robotics, and especially in military robotics.
Some US robotics companies, like Musk’s companies and Anduril, will equal or exceed them, but a lot of the other US companies will be crippled by the fact that US manufacturing is too heavily regulated and restrained by stupid internal policies. They will not have problems keeping up on the technology, but scaling requires manufacturing infrastructure, and much of the US has effectively banned economic development or wants to. Places like New York State and California are already envious of Europe’s self-destruction and want in.
If this continues, look for an eventual decisive Chinese military advantage. Note that this is not what I want, it is the exact opposite of what I want, but absent a big change in US policy about things like data centers, chip fabrication facilities, and just plain normal factories, it’s going to be hard.
A Letter from This Generation
We voted for Trump.
Not because he is perfect. He is emotional, prideful, and self-absorbed like every president before him. We voted for him because he was the only one who said out loud what we have been living through for decades. His pride might actually be our biggest asset as he is devoted to doing the job he promised to do.
We voted for the candidate the media hated most. The one who promised to end USAID, massively expand ICE with real funding that rivals the militaries of most foreign countries, send green card applicants back to their countries, stall visa holders "stranded" in their home countries waiting for interviews, and start rolling back green cards and citizenship for those who committed fraud.
We voted for the man who is exposing and prosecuting foreign fraud in hospices, childcare centers, and other programs that were draining American taxpayers.
We watched him pressure Venezuela and help roll back communism in our hemisphere while pulling back USAID money that was being used to push globalist policies across Central and South America. We saw countries as a bloc starting to kick the globalists out.
Trump is not a saint. But he is the first president in our lifetimes who seemed beholden to nationalist ideals instead of globalist ones. He puts America and American workers first, even if imperfectly.
Here is the truth the media will never say: the biggest complaint many of us have with Trump is not that he is too radical.
It is that he is not radical enough.
If people think Trump is extreme, they are really not going to like what comes after him. Because this generation is done waiting. We will keep voting for nationalists until American citizens are prioritized again, in jobs, wages, housing, benefits, and culture.
We tried the “moderate” path for decades. It gave us open borders, wage collapse, and a disappearing middle class.
We are not going back.
This generation voted to put Americans first.
And we will keep doing it until the job is finished.
This is concerning. For the first time, a Chinese model Kimi K3 has taken #1 on the Frontend Code Arena and is scoring at or near the frontier on other benchmarks.
Meanwhile America is tying itself in knots: politicians and bureaucrats are banning new data centers, piling on state regulations, and pushing for new federal agencies to pre-approve frontier models.
This is how you lose the AI race. The rest of the world won’t play by our rules if we bog ourselves down. Permissionless innovation is how America won the internet and became the technological envy of the world. We can do it again with AI -- while addressing risks in a targeted way -- or we’ll watch our lead evaporate.
Sorry you can’t have a clean, beautiful, safe society because that would require being mean to the bottom 10% of the population that acts like animals and that’s a heckin’ fascism.
Le progressisme est le pire cancer des 50 dernières années.
Pas parce qu'il est "de gauche".
Parce qu'il a volé un mot — progrès — pour vendre exactement son contraire.
C'est la thèse de Thiel. Une fois que tu la vois, tu ne peux plus la dé-voir.
Dans les années 60, l'Occident construisait. On allait sur la Lune. On bâtissait des centrales nucléaires, des avions supersoniques, on parlait sérieusement de coloniser Mars et de vaincre le cancer en dix ans. Le progrès, c'était des atomes : de l'énergie moins chère, des transports plus rapides, des vies plus longues.
Puis quelque chose s'est cassé autour de 1971.
L'innovation dans le monde physique s'est arrêtée net. Le Concorde a été retiré — on vole moins vite aujourd'hui qu'il y a 50 ans. Le nucléaire a été tué par la peur. Le salaire réel médian a stagné pendant un demi-siècle. "On nous avait promis des voitures volantes, on a eu 140 caractères."
Mais l'humain a besoin de croire qu'il avance. Alors le progressisme a fait une chose géniale et terrifiante : il a déplacé le mot "progrès" du monde des atomes vers le monde des symboles.
Puisqu'on ne savait plus agrandir le gâteau, on a décrété que le seul combat qui compte était de le redécouper. Plus de croissance à promettre ? On promet de la redistribution, de la repentance, des comités, des labels, des normes. La machine à créer a été remplacée par la machine à gérer le déclin — et on a appelé ça "le bon côté de l'Histoire".
C'est là que Girard rejoint Thiel. Le progressisme n'est pas une politique, c'est une religion sécularisée. Il a gardé tous les rouages du christianisme — le péché, la culpabilité, la confession, le bouc émissaire à sacrifier — mais il a jeté la rédemption et la transcendance. Résultat : une religion qui ne sait que désigner des coupables. Jamais pardonner. Jamais construire.
Et les coupables désignés, ce sont toujours les mêmes : ceux qui bâtissent. L'entrepreneur, l'ingénieur, le fondateur, celui qui prend des risques et crée quelque chose à partir de rien. Pendant ce temps on érige en héros le commentateur, le régulateur, le consultant — celui qui ne produit rien mais qui distribue les bons points moraux.
Voilà pourquoi c'est un cancer, au sens propre. Une cellule cancéreuse n'est pas un envahisseur extérieur. C'est une cellule de ton propre corps qui oublie sa fonction, refuse de mourir, et se met à grossir sans rien produire d'utile — jusqu'à étouffer les organes qui font vivre l'ensemble. Le progressisme, c'est exactement ça : une partie de la société qui a cessé de créer de la valeur, qui se nourrit de celle des autres, et qui appelle ça de la vertu.
La bonne nouvelle, c'est qu'un cancer, ça se soigne. Le remède n'est pas la nostalgie. C'est de rendre au mot "progrès" son sens originel : construire des choses réelles. De l'énergie abondante. Des frontières nouvelles. Des fondateurs qu'on célèbre au lieu de les juger.
Le futur n'appartient pas à ceux qui redécoupent le gâteau. Il appartient à ceux qui en font un plus grand.
We're following the old China playbook: authoritarian, gated, controlled, fear based.
And China is following the old American playbook, open, widely distributed, entrepreneurial, capitalist.
It doesn't take a genius to figure out who wins.
We better change course fast.
If Israel had the ability to save every baby in Gaza, it would.
If Hamas had the ability to kill every baby in Israel, they would.
That is the difference.
There are far more Muslims, Arabs, and Africans in the world than there are whites and Christians.
It is not racist for whites and Christians to want to preserve ourselves and the West
It is *extremely* racist to tell us that we should not want that
They always start with the art.
First the movies get captured and turned into lectures. Then the music flattens. Then fashion dies. Then the whole culture starts feeling managed instead of alive. That’s the first stage. Most people still think it’s just Hollywood being annoying.
But the pattern never stops there.
Once they’ve hollowed out the culture, they move to the institutions that shape the next generation.
Schools stop teaching kids how to think and start teaching them what to think.
Parents get treated like obstacles.
Family authority gets reframed as oppression. This isn’t new. Every totalizing system that wanted permanent power went after the children first. They know the long game.
Then it spreads into ordinary life. Your jokes get policed. Your preferences get pathologized. Your refusal to perform the current ritual gets treated as violence. Suddenly you’re not allowed to just exist in public without signaling which side you’re on. Politics stops being something that happens in the background and becomes the only acceptable lens for every human interaction.
By the time most people feel the weight of it, the machine has already moved from “accept me” to “accept this or else.” And the ones running it act shocked when the culture feels joyless, paranoid, and exhausted.
This isn’t random decline. It’s the predictable result of forcing every corner of human life to serve ideology. Art goes first because it’s the easiest to capture. Joy goes last because that’s the real target. A population that still knows how to enjoy things without permission is hard to control.
The pattern is visible now if you’re willing to look at it without flinching. Most systems like this don’t announce the endgame. They just keep escalating until normal life becomes unrecognizable.
(article below)
Just take one group, for example: The brain dead bubble heads in Minnesota alone, they were on temporary status for over 30 years.
Almost 90% of them are on welfare. That means, for more than 30 years, Americans have fed them, housed them & paid for their healthcare.
But wait, there’s more, it wasn’t enough for us to do all of that for them, oh no, they then had to steal from us to boot.
All of our bills have only increased as we support free loading scammers who are nothing but a net negative to us culturally & financially.
But, wait, there’s more, take all of the above & compound that with the fact that Democrat politicians cater to them for votes, the Minneapolis mayor literally learned to speak their ooga booga language to further pander to them because they have now grown & bred like wild animals to the point their votes actually carry weight, their votes actually determine entire elections, further diluting our votes.
Words cannot describe how MFing DONE Americans are.
You have ignited a rage in us you cannot extinguish & when we say DEPORT EVERY SINGLE ONE-
We damn well mean it!
So, save all your SOB STORIES on how deportations are “ruining lives”.
YOU HAVE RUINED OURS, OUR CHILDREN, & our future grandchildren’s lives with your globalist wet dream at our expense.
A huge percentage of our debt is FRAUD. A ton of that fraud is a direct result of migrant invaders.
We are passing down generational debt to our lineage that they do not deserve.
DONE is an understatement…
On this, America’s 250th anniversary, I have a proposal: no more apologizing for this country’s past sins for at least the next decade.
I’m a gen Xer, and the horrors of slavery, suffrage, and the Trail of Tears were preached ad nauseam at nearly every level of my education.
That’s 40-plus years of self-flagellation, and I’m from the Deep South.
While I agree that our history is far from perfect (whose isn’t?) and acknowledging those imperfections was once necessary, it’s been done to death.
And where has it gotten us? It certainly hasn’t brought us together; if anything it’s fueling the national divide that seems to grow every election cycle.
So I’m done for a while.
Going forward I’ll be bragging about our contributions instead.
You know, about how we put a man on the moon; saved the world from tyranny, not once but twice, in the 20th Century; and about how our capitalist economic dominance enabled the greatest global migration from poverty to middle class in history.
And most importantly how now, as Europe, Canada, and Australia collapse, we stand as the last great hope for the survival of Western Civilization.
So from here on out when someone bemoans our imperfect past instead of saying “I’m sorry” I think I’ll reply with “you’re welcome.”
Because if decades of apologies aren’t enough nothing ever will be, and life’s too short to try to make peace with those who profit from war.