Kristen Hua @KristenNh94 - Twitter Profile

about 1 month ago

📺 BEWARE: THIS MARKET IS FULL OF TRAPS + $SPCX STILL A POWER PLAY BUT WATCH ANOTHER UNLOCK + $TSLA CYBERCAB CREATES A TACTICAL SETUP Get my newsletter free tomorrow: https://t.co/Rqp84Wg39F September is starting exactly the way traders should have been prepared for: yields are up, global markets are lower, and $SPY and $QQQ have lost important short-term support. But the weakness didn’t come out of nowhere. $SPY gave us a warning after Jackson Hole when it pushed above $772.36 and then failed — a classic Red Dog Reversal. After rallying roughly 13 points from $762 to $775, anyone expecting an immediate return to the highs got trapped. Now #SPY is below the 8- and 21-day moving averages and approaching its 50-day. That changes the approach: less portfolio risk, lower expectations and more tactical trading. Watch $759.48-$758 and the 50-day. Can SPY hold or reclaim that area, or does the weakness accelerate? * QQQ looks even weaker. It produced its own failed breakout after pushing above $722 toward $724 and reversing. Now it’s below the 50-day, with $704.66 and then $702.70 as important levels. This has been the story of the market for months: just when a breakout or breakdown looks obvious, traders get trapped. Adding on strength hasn’t worked consistently. That’s why less is more right now. * $SPCX remains one of the stronger setups that continues to pay me for staying long. It has steadily worked its way toward $145.23 and continues to reward buying dips rather than chasing strength. For an active trader, roughly $139 is an important risk level. But there’s a catalyst to respect: another approximately $300 million unlock is coming next week. The previous two lockups were buyable, but that doesn’t mean the next one should be ignored. * Then there’s $TSLA. With the Cybercab event tomorrow, #Tesla could offer an interesting tactical cash-flow trade. The stock has recently traded better after down days than after strong days, and despite broader weakness it’s holding relatively well around $357. The key is not to chase. Rather than waiting to buy a breakout above roughly $362, the better setup may be buying closer to support and managing risk against approximately $353. In this market, buying against support has worked better than adding through resistance. #TSLA also has relatively low implied volatility heading into the event, suggesting traders aren’t pricing an enormous move. If Cybercab anticipation creates unexpected momentum, that could make the setup more interesting. * So, this is not the environment to blindly chase strength. $SPY and $QQQ have already shown how quickly apparent breakouts can turn into traps. Reduce risk, pick your spots, buy against defined support when the setup is there, and stay tactical. In this market, less is more. * If you found this helpful, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet