Kristin Ritchie

Commodities Broker & Research Analyst. Texas Aggie. Views expressed are my own.

[Kristin Ritchie @Kristin_NFC]

How much will imports offset potential retention next year?

[Kristin Ritchie @Kristin_NFC]

Afternoon thoughts:
1.) Cartel involvement in the Mexican cattle industry is extensive and existed LONG before the border closure. They follow the $ and aren't loyal to Mexican packers. Opening the border is another potential revenue/negotiating tool.
2.)

[Kristin Ritchie @Kristin_NFC]

@hickey_travis What does your model suggest relative to 2-3 years ago?

[Kristin Ritchie @Kristin_NFC]

Around the same time, we began feeding cattle 60-90 days longer...

[Kristin Ritchie @Kristin_NFC]

@amandaa_fuller I'm literally talking to it on the phone

[Kristin Ritchie @Kristin_NFC]

Can you feel the tension...?

[Kristin Ritchie @Kristin_NFC]

Can't ignore the weekly H&S pattern in Oct FC 😭

[Kristin Ritchie @Kristin_NFC]

@kmerle7 $5.50 to $6/cwt

[Kristin Ritchie @Kristin_NFC]

Our "net" beef supply is something to consider during cattle inventory conversations... Let me know if it doesn't look the way that you expected.

[Kristin Ritchie @Kristin_NFC]

@carlin_greg Why bring down retail prices when they have no problem selling it?

[Kristin Ritchie @Kristin_NFC]

@carlin_greg demand!

[Kristin Ritchie @Kristin_NFC]

@Glen_Ring @wendyp4545 Exports only take up roughly 10% of our total domestic production. We are most likely exporting our highest quality cuts. But thanks to our increase in demand for lean trimmings (to blend off all of the fat on these carcasses) we've been a net beef importer since 2023.

[Kristin Ritchie @Kristin_NFC]

@ErickFarmer73 not enough people are talking about it

[Kristin Ritchie @Kristin_NFC]

The price response not explained by supply is demand. YOY increase in net beef supply (see my previous chart) coupled with a YOY increase in retail price suggests that consumer demand for beef remains exceptional.

[Kristin Ritchie @Kristin_NFC]

What do you think? - Is this a bull pause, more sideways chop, or do the feeder charts want to fold over?

Fully expecting a 33/33/33 response.

[Kristin Ritchie @Kristin_NFC]

Packers killed an estimated 600k this week... largest estimated weekly kill since March.

[Kristin Ritchie @Kristin_NFC]

@OliverSloup That's cool, but what do you think it means?

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

🎯

[Kristin Ritchie @Kristin_NFC]

I feel like a bull without a helmet