Pumpfun's market share has dropped below 50% for the first time ever — to 47.8%!
BonkFun's market share has risen to 41.1%, marking the first time it has climbed above 40%
BonkFun is experiencing rapid and aggressive growth, putting it on track to flip Pumpfun and become the leading industry launchpad
meanwhile, almost all of the value being captured in the form of fees is flowing back into $BONK and the Solana ecosystem
as I've been shouting for a while now, BONK and the BonkFun ecosystem are ridiculously undervalued here
"Trader's paradise, Investor's Hell."
One day after the biggest single Market Cap increase day EVER, we get a top2 largest *decrease* EVER.
IS THIS REALLY HAPPENING??🤯
I've been ringing the alarm bell- And I've been prepared. Sharing some of my tips for navigating below👇
Many have been getting chopped up--
Panic selling bottoms bc of fear.. or bc "the chart structure broke". 📉
Then- Buying blow off tops bc of some vague headline.
Only to have a complete structural collapse, yet again.
Anyone can make money in bulltard months like November 2024 where the pie is growing so fast and most are biased long..
But elite traders are the only ones that survive, and perhaps even thrive, in these conditions -- A few key things they do in this kind of turbulence:
1. You *MUST* prioritize having CASH to buy the DIP! You should even give up some EV to make sure you do.
Jane street is famous for this one. They spend money buying deep out-of-the-money puts all year at a loss. Because that time when the market completely collapses, it is *SO* valuable being one of the only ones in the room that can snap up all the clear bargains. Everyone else is busy finding capital to cover margin calls.
If anything, this is even more true in Crypto than Trad markets. Most retail is running on leverage and dislocations can be massive.
What I do? Moves like yesterday's rip, I am happy to sell at the shoulder and miss the profits of the head. Refueling cash reserves for future is well worth the "suboptimal" exit.
2. Think in price terms, not in time.
I remember last cycle when HighStakesCap would post an 8 figure PNL shot from FTX on an entry that was like 2 months prior. Its a powerful thing to have in the toolkit:
Decide what price you consider "clearly good value" and what price you feel like the risk/reward isnt as positive, and that is your exit price.
Then be patient. It could take an hour to hit your exit price and take profit, it could take weeks.
You can and *should* re-evalute the new information as it comes in to change your "great entry price" and "great exit price".
But if you are inflexible on the time component because "i only like to trade intraday" or "i only trade multiweek" you will underperform by definition.
Don't step out of your comfort zone if you aren't ready, but the elite traders are just lazer focused on 'buy lower + sell higher' and let the market volatility determine their holding time.
3. Keep a clean, cool head and stick to the plan.
Be well capitalized for the sizing stakes you are running, so when your dips keep dipping you stay chill and stick to your thesis.
My thesis is there is no multiyear bull market possible when there's still a lot of tailwinds to the space and liquidity. That helps me feel confident buying.
I also don't expect some magical "alt season". That helps me ready to take profit on rips and be happy to wait for the next opportunity.
One mental trick I use on deciding whether to act (eg sell) at a certain level- When I see the current price I ask myself if I think there is a high probability it will at least retrace below this exact price.
If there is, then this isn't some special entry point anymore, and I can follow the old adage of "usually the best position to have is flat".
=======================================
I'll finish with a typical example of a trade I do in this kind of market-
Bitcoin dips from 100k to 90k. I start deploying cash- I start scaling into buys from 90k down, by 82k I am at the large size where I am comfortable holding for months if needed.
Seems this Dip got hands! Keeps going down to 78-79k. Down bigly on uPNL. *However * the r/r now even better, so I free up some extra capital to get some final clips in bc I dont believe in a long bear market.
Average price at 83-84k, and I'm happy with this entry- many ways to see a future knocking back on the 100k door.
As market recovers in the next days, those final clips at 78k get unwound for profit at 85k-- because in case market re-dips I have ammo to play the lower range again while I wait for my larger position's higher range to come into play again.
In this case market is feeling friednly and offers no re-test of 78k to re-enter and instead continues higher. Take profit 87-93k and fully out, expecting to see a re-entry at least as good if not better than the 93k again.
Miss the run up to 95k (sidelinedooooor). The initial plan was to re-enter at 88k but after seeing market can go higher, new re-entry price is put to 90k.
Market comes back to 90k and scale up again on the way down aggressively. Take some uPNL again as I wait to either deploy final clips lower or take profit again (we are *here* now).
=======================================
These tought conditions? I was born in them. Molded by them.
Hope this helps a bit to make it a paradise instead a hell. Till next time 🐲
My main conviction for 2024 is a new category of token called Provenance Coins. I’ve written my thesis on this below, as a long form tweet.
The blockchain allows us to track the history and origin of all assets created on it. Because of this, NFTs are a common way for artists to mint works that, among many other features, can be easily authenticated.
The authenticity of an object is something of great controversy in the art and collectibles world. Physical objects have foggy chains of ownership, and “experts” can spin up stories to make something real; as much as 20% of art in public museums may be fake. The blockchain solves the problem of provenance by recording every transaction, forever. If an artist mints an artwork, it is trivial to record and then verify the token at a future date.
Why do people care about authenticity? People are enthralled by stories. If they can be convinced that an object (physical or digital) has really experienced the events it is claimed to have experienced, it is imbued with this magical property, first through the individual and then through the social network of people who have their imaginations captured the same way. This is why people desire the real thing instead of an identical faux replica; this is how, through NFTs, a digital image can have value.
This on-chain use of provenance is mostly utilised by artists making art and brands making collectibles. The concept can of course be expanded further. It makes the most sense that digitally native objects and stories should be recorded this way. The most obvious example of this would be memes. While memes have many tokens named after them, the vast majority have no link to their origins; #Dogecoin was created by fans of the image of Kabosu, with no actual link to her; the recent $PEPE has no link to Matt Furie, despite him already creating NFTs.
Memes are viral phenomenons, but they are mostly minted as 1 of 1 NFTs, and in some cases open editions or collections. The limited divisibility enforced by these models is a barrier to virality. As we have seen with $DOGE et al., price function greatly benefits from fungibility and liquidity, regardless of authenticity. This leads me to introduce an entirely new category of tokens: Provenance Coins.
Provenance Coins combine the markets of art and memecoins into one asset. They disrupt the current memecoin paradigm by creating indisputably legitimate tokens, underpinning it with a substance that existing tokens like Dogecoin are devoid of. For example, $DOG is backed by the original photo taken by @kabosumama. This photo is globally recognized and, for more than ten years, has been used endlessly as a format for conveying ideas. This image can be owned collectively through fractionalization.
Fractionalization works using a smart contract that splits the original NFT into tokens, which can be redeemed proportionally for the sale price of the #NFT if it is won by auction through the same smart contract. The token holders can vote on the reserve price of the auction.
The first example of this was a fractionalized version of Yellow Glasses Guy, $YGGC. In late 2021, I launched $NFD, which was a fractional token of another, less famous (and more affordable) image of Kabosu that was captured and auctioned off by Atsuko Sato. Shortly after, $DOG was created. I have since joined @ownthedoge to direct tokenomics. Many other Provenance Coins exist, for example, through @DankBankHQ who have collected many famous images with the intention of fractionalizing them.
The success of the fractionalized tokens in turn pushes up the value of these 1 of 1 NFTs, benefitting their creators. This transformation of the memecoin market also appeals to more sceptical and outside investors, especially when the subject is something they may recognize, by giving them a trusted vehicle. Greater respect for truth encourages reciprocation of the same - it will draw in those who care about history, and make them comfortable through verification.
Some DAOs exist that focus on collecting these pieces of internet culture. Examples are Feisty DAO (@NFDtoken) and @PleasrDAO. Feisty DAO has created an ecosystem with NFD as the central token. It uses defi to create new functions, like prints of the original image, which can be created by locking some of the token. It also fractionalized Angry Doge as $ANFD, which can be earned by staking NFD-ETH LP, so liquidity is incentivized by the opportunity to ‘mine’ a cultural image. It also holds $HARAMBE, one of the original famous Gigachad images by Sleekntears, and some of Sminem’s 1 of 1s. PleasrDAO have created the ‘pixel portal’, where you can lock some DOG to generate a single pixel of the original doge image as an NFT. They also helped launch $FREE, a fractional token of @RealRossU’s art that was won at auction.
Provenance Coins can also be created directly. For example, $OGSM was created by Roman @thesminemverse, the boy in the famous Sminem image. He did this by simply creating an ERC-20 himself; there is no need for fractionalization, as it is implicitly representative of the meme, and he profits through his share of the supply. This allows him to benefit directly from his internet fame - something he was unable to do before crypto. Many creators in similar positions are empowered the same way by the blockchain, typically through NFTs. People like @saint_whynne, the creator of trollface, and @solidbadluck, the creator of Bad Luck Brian, have minted their creations in order to gain financial success that was not otherwise available to them. It is very common for these creators to see their work reproduced endlessly without credit, be it through fast fashion or creditless reposts. The blockchain allows them to apply authenticity to their work online without having to rely on the outdated copyright system.
A combination of treasury and LP mismanagement in the bear market meant that DOG saw a significant price slide, wth holders losing confidence in the concept. Many similar assets saw the same mispricing. I took this as an opportunity.
DOG is currently valued at $40m FDV. Gigachad sold for just $50k. Compare this to other famous images and works of art; the value discrepancy is huge. The Mona Lisa is hard to value, but would be upwards of $20b. This discrepancy is also true when compared to other popular memecoins. It is not difficult to imagine that the authentic examples of these ideas should be worth far, far more than they are now.
Traders and collectors alike like to signal status through veblen goods. This is an idea shared by many large traders. NFTs are an obvious digital example of this, but Provenance Coins have the potential to capture some of this demand through clever use of Dapps. Prints allow the tokens to be converted to a format that can be displayed, just the same as any other NFT, while still carrying the authenticity of the original token as it can be traced back through the contract. This can make a single image much like a pfp collection; it can be worn by many owners, without the same divisibility and liquidity problems faced by 10k collections.
Illegitimate namesakes can be mass produced. We see countless tokens spun up, with many bought instantly by insiders and promoted through pseudonymous networks. They play a confidence game purely for profit, sometimes with a forced ‘culture’ that does not escape CT. There is rarely a long term outlook and it can be repeated without consequence. On balance, there are many great grassroots communities that have formed organically this way; people love comeback stories after the dev rugs. But this is a drain on honest participants who keep rewarding the bad actors.
Authenticity creates a more reliable scarcity. If there is a verifiable creator or piece of art you enjoy, you should rally behind it. This sincerity gives rise to a long term care for culture and does away with tiring, stressful musical chairs that give the industry the image it has today. This isn’t me saying I haven’t contributed to that in any way - I play this game too - but we can aspire to change it.
People often talk about ‘metas’, local zeitgeists, to inform and guide their investment strategy. While it’s important to have an understanding of behavioural psychology to be a good trader, people often become trapped in their own frameworks without even realizing it. You do not have to be a slave to the repeated cycle of meaningless pump and dumps to ‘make it’. Some ideas are evergreen; in crypto, we have created eternal world computers that will outlive us. We must take advantage of this long term capability to form new outlooks. By creating tokens that have real historical meaning at their inception, we can ignite a multi-generational ethos that ends the culture of nihilistic throwaway scamcoins, and forges a new system for real creators and the followers who care about them. You can enable this and take part in its success by simply deciding to do so.
My main choices for this category are $DOG and $NFD. Ownthedoge is a more mainstream oriented brand that impacts the real world through installations like the doge statue (pictured) and official doge merchandise. It is also the most recognizeable of all existing tokens, making the value proposition easier to convey to new market participants.
Feisty DAO focuses on consolidating a hold on the crypto-native space. It is smaller and therefore more able to move fast and break things. It has an already impressive collection, and many incubated community projects like @RetroDogesNFT contribute to the community’s ecosystem.
If you read this far, thank you. This is a sincere explanation of what I consider to be the most promising non-technical innovation in the space. It is a construct I have worked with for years now, and intend to see through to acceptance, to the benefit of all honest actors. Happy new year, and I wish you a great 2024.
Anyone farming on @tensor_hq? Tensorians absolutely flew today off speculation post $JTO airdrop. I wonder how this will compare to what we saw with $BLUR?
If youre planning on getting into NFTs on Solana at all, id recommend looking into their reward system.
https://t.co/o517J5BrlU
jupiter has 3 more rounds of airdrops, tensor hasnt dropped their token yet all you gotta do is get an nft and stake it, marginfi, drip haus, backpack, phantom, ME, and more could airdrop a token but you think you missed it already and wont participate
The biggest Solana airdrop season in history is about to commence.
You have a huge opportunity to capitalise, with over a dozen protocols set to launch tokens in 2024.
🧵: Your ULTIMATE guide to attaining Solana ecosystem airdrops.👇
☀️ Your Complete Guide to Trading Solana Tokens ☀️
Trading long-tail Solana tokens is extremely risky right now as there’s a huge dearth of quality projects with liquid tokens. However, I expect this to improve over the next 6-12 months, so it’s worth getting familiar with the tools of the trade.
This guide is divided into 3 parts: Discovering Tokens, Researching Tokens, and Trading Tokens. Let's dive in.
Discovering Tokens
The best sources of alpha are quality, private group chats with on-chain crypto natives. Absent that, you can still find opportunities using some high-level analytical tools.
-Step Data Insights (@StepDataInsight): Find top performing tokens and markets. Create your own watchlist. https://t.co/TDLqBdWdo6
-Birdeye (@birdeye_so): Trending tokens, highest 24h volume, largest trades, and top gainers. Also great for charting tokens (similar to Dexscreener) https://t.co/9Ic8hiQ5uL
-Dexscreener (@dexscreener): They have some Solana tokens, but coverage is not as extensive as Birdeye. They'll probably improve this as liquidity continues to flow to Solana ecosystem. https://t.co/ZlFgxaHZ3m
-Coingecko (@coingecko): See what’s trending in the search bar and check out the Solana Ecosystem section: https://t.co/NRtjDlnj6x
Researching Tokens
The best way to reduce your odds (there’s always still a risk) of getting rugged is to arm yourself with as much information as possible. The best source of information is the project’s website and other primary sources (project whitepaper, spaces with key team members, articles, blogs, podcasts, github repos, hackathon submissions, X posts, etc.). Once you have a basic understanding of the project, then you should look at other data points to paint a wholistic picture of what you’re potentially buying.
-Solscan (@solscanofficial): The Etherscan of Solana. Also great for seeing top holders of a potential token. It even shows the tops markets trading that token. It’s always a good idea to double-check your token contract here. https://t.co/Dzob01Ls6J
-RugCheck (@Rugcheckxyz): Copy/paste the token address here for a quick overview of potential red flags such as mint authority and token metadata mutability. It takes about 5 seconds and can save you from a potential rug (very common with recently-launched memecoins, less of an issue with established projects). https://t.co/X3XFpkEe5v
Trading Tokens
-Wallet: Obviously, you’ll need a wallet to trade Solana and SPL tokens. The “MetaMask” of Solana is Phantom (@phantom). It’s been around the longest and is the most deeply integrated. Backpack (@xNFT_Backpack) and Glow (@glowwallet) are also excellent. Even MetaMask (@MetaMask) now supports Solana through its Snaps integration with Solflare (@solflare_wallet) (bonus points for Solflare being open-source). https://t.co/lIqomsNXnG https://t.co/Stsd7X4ioI https://t.co/avXuEKIHch https://t.co/ZIQ8saBQHy
-Bridging: You can use the Portal Token Bridge (fka Wormhole) directly or you can use something like Mayan which uses Wormhole (@wormholecrypto) on the backend. The easiest bridging experience I’ve found is Jupiter (@JupiterExchange), which will route your order through bridges like Mayan or deBridge (@deBridgeFinance) in the most optimal fashion. Great UX. Can bridge across many chains/assets into Solana (eg ETH, USDT/USDC on ETH, TRON, etc). https://t.co/PqtYgpDegw https://t.co/gJziVHSIJU
-Swapping: While Uniswap is the juggernaut of swaps in the land of Ethereum, Jupiter (@JupiterExchange) is the king of swaps on Solana. Jupiter is an aggregator (like 1inch) that will route your order through various Solana DEXs (like Orca (@orca_so), Raydium (@RaydiumProtocol), etc.) to give you the most optimal execution. Their UI/UX is so good I’ve literally never traded anywhere else on Solana. https://t.co/UGFwoH1KfQ
-Mobile Trading: On Ethereum, we have Telegram Bots like Unibot, Maestro, and Banana Gun. On Solana, we have Fluxbot (@FluxBeamDEX) ($FLUXB). They recently won the grand prize at Solana’s Hyperdrive Hackathon and are a solid option if you want to trade on-the-go via Telegram. https://t.co/Uhsv0Fof57
-Portfolio Tracking: Step Finance (@StepFinance_) is like the DeBank or Zapper of Solana. Connect your wallet and see what your positions are (though no multi-wallet support yet). https://t.co/V6uVkxDrM2
DM me with any feedback and subscribe for daily commentary here → https://t.co/KTbprcC3Ri
can somebody make a guide for shitcoining on solana so i can just reshare it
bridge: https://t.co/JdLvxoE3Md
token details: https://t.co/HPRkzrUGFO
token checker: https://t.co/jlhPk4gb8c
charts / tickers: https://t.co/M4LprRmWo8
telegram trading bot: https://t.co/3DCQJ7Ut5z
$SOL potential airdrop target list
@tensor_hq - Blur for SOL NFTs, its on season 3 of points
@phantom - Metamask but for SOL, actually my favorite wallet in the crypto space
@xNFT_Backpack - Backpack wallet / protocol, Mad lads NFT, now launching their own exchange
@MagicEden - Opensea-esq dunno if they will ever do a token (they should to stay relavant)
@DriftProtocol - DYDX / GMX perpetual swap exchange
@ZetaMarkets - DYDX / GMX perpetual swap exchange
@jito_sol - LIDO equivalent for staking $SOL
@marginfi - AAVE / Comp lending
@drip_haus Daily NFT drops, one of the biggest protocols in crypto in terms of holders / users
@Sonarwatch - Debank-esq portfolio tracker
Starting at just $5,000.
This wallet grew its wealth to $350,000 (a 70x increase).
All it takes is discipline.
Let's dive into his strategy (and what is he doing now)🧵
Losing money without learning lessons is a mistake
Losing money while learning lessons is just tuition
Here are my 22 NFT Lessons Learned in 2022 (please learn from my mistakes):
Learning programming will instantly add $50,000 to your professional value
Little known secret? It’s free and easy to pick up
Here are 5 youtube coding courses you can complete in a weekend (for beginners):