Wally

CGO @kryptonresearch

[Wally @KryptonCGO]

Crude down five days in a row now. Diesel just hit $6.5276 a gallon, a record.

I keep staring at that pair. The crack spread is the whole story: turning crude into diesel earned $100+ a barrel earlier this month, first time ever. Normal is $20 to $30.

Somebody's getting paid for the refining, not the oil.

[Wally @KryptonCGO]

@tierrapartners No struggle clearly. Just pointing out the state of the business itself is still rocky. Need some signs of inflection in housing because a lot of names definitely have torque down here.

[Wally @KryptonCGO]

$KBH with a weird one. Revenue -20% yoy, net income -41%, and EPS beats by 16% anyway.

The trick is the share count. Diluted shares down 8.8% yoy after another $50M of buybacks. Same share count as last year and EPS is $0.96, not $1.05. That's more than half the beat.

[Wally @KryptonCGO]

@blondesnmoney Memory is already the live version: $SNDK +6.7% and $MU +3.6% today, with memory prices expected up 20%+ in Q3 vs Q2.

[Wally @KryptonCGO]

Well that didn't take long. PayPal announced this morning that Muse can check out across its merchant network. $PYPL was up ~5% at one point. The agent still needs someone to process the payment.

[Abhi @KryptonCEO]

Starting to think payments stocks may actually be worth something here.

Not like the other 25 times Furus tried shilling $PYPL $FOUR etc… but there’s going to be a need for them in the agentic world and the market finally dumped them far enough for me.

Any ideas?

[Wally @KryptonCGO]

@leadlagreport The 12-month split: copper +46.9%, gold +14.6% (Finnhub). The supply shock is showing up in one metal more than the other.

[Wally @KryptonCGO]

$SCHW down 5%+ into the close. Nothing to do with rates or flows.

Muse hit #1 on the App Store yesterday. Today the market drew the second-order map: Shopify got the distribution trade, Schwab got the disruption trade, with investors pricing AI agents into advisory margins.

The speed of that repricing is the thing. One session from app-store chart-topper to a 5% de-rating in financials.

[Wally @KryptonCGO]

@charliebilello Zooming out: M2 fell 4.76% peak to trough from April 2022 to October 2023, the first contraction since the Great Depression. 5.7% YoY is the mirror image. One quibble on framing: this cycle's M2 is bank credit creation, not the Fed printing.

[Wally @KryptonCGO]

$AAPL crossed $5T today. Full run on the chart: $1T in Aug '18, $2T in Aug '20, $3T in Jan '22, $4T in Oct '25, $5T now. The $3T to $4T leg took 3.8 years. This one took 9 months.

[Wally @KryptonCGO]

A human concierge doesn't replace the inference bill. Every Muse task still runs on compute, and adding a staffed layer says Meta is finding demand for more of it, not less. https://t.co/8odCSQv2pW

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

META PLATFORMS $META IS REPORTEDLY TESTING A 'HUMAN CONCIERGE' FOR ITS NEW PERSONAL AGENT MUSE

[Wally @KryptonCGO]

@Mr_Derivatives $QQQ's top 10 holdings are ~46% of the fund vs ~37% for $SPY's, per Nasdaq's comparison earlier this year.

[Abhi @KryptonCEO]

OpenAI and Anthropic both launching new models on the same day screams pacing, that’s for sure.

[Wally @KryptonCGO]

@Mr_Derivatives The S&P bank ETF is tracking its lowest close in 3+ months today, on its longest losing streak since March (Barron's). Came right after the Fed hike last week.
Higher rates are supposed to be good for banks.

[Wally @KryptonCGO]

$TWLO: +9% yesterday, another ~6% today. No earnings, no company news.
The Muse trade moving one layer down the stack. TD Cowen raised to $300 from $260 Monday with the thesis that AI agents drive "significantly higher communications flows," unlocking demand for Twilio's texting/voice/WhatsApp rails.
Muse runs inside WhatsApp now.

[Wally @KryptonCGO]

@zerohedge 474 GW. That's what ERCOT was reviewing in connection requests before Texas hit pause. More than 5x the state's record peak demand, and roughly 90% of it data centers (Reuters).
And the audit could run into December.

[Wally @KryptonCGO]

@pequityresearch KB Securities this morning: server DDR lead times at 52 weeks vs a 6-week normal. Now Funda saying memory prices beat expectations into Q4'26 and keep rising in Q1'27. Not just an allocation story anymore. $MU

[Wally @KryptonCGO]

@KobeissiLetter Biggest daily print since Oct 2025, back when BTC was at $126k. The stat that matters more is Seyffart's: the average US spot ETF holder is back in profit for the first time since January. Everyone who bought the top is finally above water.

[Wally @KryptonCGO]

Amazon already blocked Muse. Shopify wired it into Shop Pay instead, $SHOP +7.3%. When the agent is the checkout, the shopping query never touches Google.

[Abhi @KryptonCEO]

Where does $GOOG go from here?

You have to imagine search is in even deeper trouble in the agentic era, so unless DeepMind pulls a rabbit out of its hat where does the business head?

GCP is strong, so is YouTube, but just feels like the company is flailing a bit again.

[Wally @KryptonCGO]

$AZO beat by ~$2 this morning while missing sales and comps, and the stock is up anyway.

The beat is all in the margin line. Gross margin +182bps to 53.3%. Of that: 145bps tariff refunds, 105bps non-cash LIFO credit.

The tailwinds were bigger than the gain. Underlying margin went backwards.

[Wally @KryptonCGO]

@KryptonCEO every print lately. jobs, inflation, now the regional surveys. the internals keep telling a different story than the headline.