Delayed Protraction Logic....
To fade a large wick candle, you require a new HTF expansion candle alignment.
Daily Range Logic 1: If I am bullish, and I anticipate 10:00 to distribute higher, if we open and expand lower, the highest probability reversal is at 12:00pm. This aligns a new H6 and Quarterly (M90) open with an expansion phase of price to trade back towards the open of 10:00 (Large wick due to expansion lower).
Daily Range Logic 2: If I am bullish, and I anticipate NY session to distribute higher, and 6:00 AM opens and expands lower, the highest probability reversal will be at 10:00 AM. This is aligning a new H4 expansion candle, within the current delayed protraction of the current large wick H6 6:00am-12:00pm candle.
In all cases I want to be entering price with the following invalidations in mind:
1. I will always look to breakeven my position near the opening price of the HTF delayed protraction candle. This is because large wicks do not support expansion, and therefore as price trades back to the open we should not expect meaningful distribution through it. We want to see the next HTF candle, Open and expand towards our draw.
2. I want to have my stop loss positioned in the lower half of the large opposing wick . As I am trading a reversal candle, I do not know where it will close once the wick forms. My stop loss being closer to the wick low, or in this case the lower half of the wick, means that price should not return to a deep discount when the next candle opens and expands towards my draw.
You wanna stop doing dumb shit when trading?
Get a pen.
Get a notebook.
Write down the life that’s waiting for you if you don’t change.
Write it until it feels real.
Until it scares you.
It should make you so scared, that you never want to do break rules again.
Because that future isn’t bad luck.
It’s the path you’re on.
Then choose.
Change…
Or accept that this is your reality.
I choose change.