Stevie wiley @KyahHurrel - Twitter Profile

Convective Outlook issued for TOMORROW: Scattered heavy thundery showers are expected to develop widely across the British Isles tomorrow, with the Midlands and parts of northern England expected to be the main focus for isolated marginally severe hazards. Storms will move at a moderate to fairly fast pace, with moderate to strong deep-layer shear supporting multicellular and increasingly organised convection. Despite modest CAPE, some storms could become locally severe, bringing locally frequent lightning, isolated large hail around 1–2 cm in diameter, very isolated locally severe wind gusts, torrential downpours, surface water flooding and an isolated flash-flood threat. Across southern England, a conditional tornado threat may evolve during the evening, where low-level shear combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear could support a brief, weak and very isolated tornado should the right storm develop. Modest CAPE will be present, although this will limit the overall severe potential. Confidence in thunderstorm development remains lower than across central and northern areas, with current guidance showing less convincing storm activity. A marginal severe polygon has therefore not been issued at this stage, although a few locally strong storms could still develop during the afternoon and evening, potentially continuing into the late evening and perhaps the early hours of Monday. A final outlook may be issued if guidance becomes more supportive of stronger storm development. Risk remains low-mid Enhanced, with moderate confidence. Across Ireland, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, bringing occasional to locally frequent lightning, small hail, gusty winds, torrential downpours and localised surface water flooding. An isolated flash-flood threat cannot be ruled out. Modest CAPE should allow some storms to persist and produce locally frequent lightning for a time, although weaker deep-layer shear compared with central and northern Britain should result in less organised convection overall. A low-end 3/5 risk was considered but has been held back due to the less convincing lightning signal and weaker organisation. The current risk is high-end 2/5, with a potential upgrade to low-end 3/5 later if confidence increases. Across far northern England, a few scattered thunderstorms may develop, bringing occasional lightning, small hail, gusty winds, torrential downpours and localised surface water flooding. An isolated flash-flood threat is also possible as storms here are expected to be slower-moving, allowing heavier rainfall to persist over individual locations for longer. Risk is currently assessed at high-end 1/5 to low-mid 2/5. The severe polygon represents marginally severe in this matter, as there is no marginally severe polygon in my outlook, so I have to use the severe one.

WxMaccaUK's tweet photo. Convective Outlook issued for TOMORROW:

Scattered heavy thundery showers are expected to develop widely across the British Isles tomorrow, with the Midlands and parts of northern England expected to be the main focus for isolated marginally severe hazards. Storms will move at a moderate to fairly fast pace, with moderate to strong deep-layer shear supporting multicellular and increasingly organised convection. Despite modest CAPE, some storms could become locally severe, bringing locally frequent lightning, isolated large hail around 1–2 cm in diameter, very isolated locally severe wind gusts, torrential downpours, surface water flooding and an isolated flash-flood threat.

Across southern England, a conditional tornado threat may evolve during the evening, where low-level shear combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear could support a brief, weak and very isolated tornado should the right storm develop. Modest CAPE will be present, although this will limit the overall severe potential. Confidence in thunderstorm development remains lower than across central and northern areas, with current guidance showing less convincing storm activity. A marginal severe polygon has therefore not been issued at this stage, although a few locally strong storms could still develop during the afternoon and evening, potentially continuing into the late evening and perhaps the early hours of Monday. A final outlook may be issued if guidance becomes more supportive of stronger storm development. Risk remains low-mid Enhanced, with moderate confidence.

Across Ireland, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, bringing occasional to locally frequent lightning, small hail, gusty winds, torrential downpours and localised surface water flooding. An isolated flash-flood threat cannot be ruled out. Modest CAPE should allow some storms to persist and produce locally frequent lightning for a time, although weaker deep-layer shear compared with central and northern Britain should result in less organised convection overall. A low-end 3/5 risk was considered but has been held back due to the less convincing lightning signal and weaker organisation. The current risk is high-end 2/5, with a potential upgrade to low-end 3/5 later if confidence increases.

Across far northern England, a few scattered thunderstorms may develop, bringing occasional lightning, small hail, gusty winds, torrential downpours and localised surface water flooding. An isolated flash-flood threat is also possible as storms here are expected to be slower-moving, allowing heavier rainfall to persist over individual locations for longer. Risk is currently assessed at high-end 1/5 to low-mid 2/5.

The severe polygon represents marginally severe in this matter, as there is no marginally severe polygon in my outlook, so I have to use the severe one.

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Stevie wiley @KyahHurrel

about 1 month ago

@ChadWeather Tomorrow looking a bit grim ain’t it

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Stevie wiley @KyahHurrel

about 1 month ago

@ChadWeather Nooo not at night lol my dog will howl 😩

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Stevie wiley @KyahHurrel

about 1 month ago

@ChadWeather Is this it? It’s rainging but I wouldn’t call it a down pour I’ve been sat waiting for a good thunderstorm lol

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Stevie wiley @KyahHurrel

about 1 month ago

@ChadWeather They had thunderstorms bad in Peterborough a hour n half ago x

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Stevie wiley @KyahHurrel

about 1 month ago

@ChadWeather What do you think out winter is going to look like because of El Niño? According to google AI it’s going to be a tough one. What’s your thoughts?

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