Kyle Bender

[Kyle Bender @KyleBenderivlc]

@GordoCDA Welcome back, and welcome to reality! The man is in deep shit.

[Kyle Bender @KyleBenderivlc]

@amir_harati @policytensor No I disagree with that. If he can maintain 20 ships a day, then this situation can go on forever, perhaps even long enough to build pipelines. Imploding was the wrong word. 1 ship getting hit a week is probably fine, but 1 a day this soon after 2 weeks of strikes is not.

[Kyle Bender @KyleBenderivlc]

@GavMcCracken Didn't the net length on crude increase this week? Don't get me wrong, this market is IRRATIONAL, but...

[Kyle Bender @KyleBenderivlc]

@policytensor While I agree that Iran is beginning to lose the game of cat and mouse, their alternative is proxy attacks on gulf energy infrastructure. They have commenced these attacks over the past weeks and days.

[TheIntelFrog @TheIntelFrog]

Here's my analysis of the current situation in Iran and the exits I see possible. https://t.co/N3TQd63jOe

[Kyle Bender @KyleBenderivlc]

@BrettErickson28 I don't know if everyone here is right. From my point of view, it seems like he may be in a position to resume SOME traffic without Iran's consent. Only ~15 ships a day are required to prevent catastrophe. He may have flipped who wins by waiting.

[Kyle Bender @KyleBenderivlc]

@JoshYoung I don't know, it sort of seems to me like he's now on the precipice of victory. If Iran can no longer stop 12-14 VLCCs a day, then time is on the side of the US. If Iran doesn't attack here, Trump may have won. We'll have to wait and count the barrels.

[Kyle Bender @KyleBenderivlc]

@GordoCDA Calm down Gordo. Remember, if the Strait is open, and the blockade is still on, then Trump has time on his side. From what we can see, it sort of seems like the Strait is starting to see traffic again for STS transfers. If the IRGC doesn't attack, then the US wins by waiting.

[Kyle Bender @KyleBenderivlc]

@BrettErickson28 Maximum pressure has not worked yet, it's impossible to know if it will EVER work. I never see anyone present a credible alternative which doesn't involve a years long ground war, state failure, or a nuclear Iran.

[Kyle Bender @KyleBenderivlc]

@BrettErickson28 You're right that this war will be catastrophic, but I think you're wrong about the possibility of exit. To give Iran fine control over Hormuz before negotiations is to give up on the nuclear issue, and Israel will not tolerate that. It would only delay the war.

[Kyle Bender @KyleBenderivlc]

@GordoCDA You put too much faith in him. Trump will not attack until he has 0 other credible options which aren't obvious defeats. He is cornered, what the IRGC wants he can't give. Munitions and midterms are starting to press him to choose between escalation and surrender. We are close

[Kyle Bender @KyleBenderivlc]

@Aviation_Movies @RealestMercury How do you know one from the other?

[Kyle Bender @KyleBenderivlc]

@GordoCDA Where? TV, an article? I want to see it.

[Kyle Bender @KyleBenderivlc]

@GavMcCracken Too add to this, it's likely that BOTH squeeze. The product squeeze should continue, but if the middle east actually is priced in as closed or throttled, then the spread will remain high, and refiners will ALSO struggle to get crude.

[Kyle Bender @KyleBenderivlc]

@GordoCDA No eyes needed here, that's just Tuesday for the KOSPI

[Kyle Bender @KyleBenderivlc]

@ayedod @GordoCDA They normally exit Israel, then head east in Jordan. Still doubt Trump commences a true all out attack tonight.

[Kyle Bender @KyleBenderivlc]

@GordoCDA On the bright side, 2 more tankers from Tel Aviv

[Kyle Bender @KyleBenderivlc]

@GordoCDA Keep in mind how CATASTROPHIC a regional war would be. I desperately hope I'm wrong, but I think Trump is about to agree to a peace deal FAR worse than the MOU. So long as he continues to delay in making the decision between war and surrender, his position worsens for both.

[Kyle Bender @KyleBenderivlc]

@GordoCDA Where are you seeing all these strikes. I only see the one in Jizan from the normal sources.