I predicted that @adam3us wouldn’t be able to deploy $1.5B from the $BSTR de-SPAC below Strategy’s average cost, but it’s looking like I might be wrong. $1.5B would get them an additional ~23,500 BTC at current prices for a total of 53,500 coins. 🤯
After dipping into the low $90s last week, $SATA is already nearly back at $100
Then the ATM turns back on 🔥
Love to see it while everyone cries about STRC
$STRC has a self-repairing mechanism that most people don’t really understand. 🛠️
Below par, Strategy stops issuing new shares via ATM. No new capital is raised at a discount, and no new perpetual dividend obligations are added to the balance sheet. This is the case at both $99.99 or $90.
The self-repairing mechanism then activates automatically - the farther below par, the more powerful it becomes.
Here’s how it works 👇
1⃣ Effective yield increases (higher % return on the same cash dividend). The 11.5% dividend is not paid on the market price of STRC. The dividend is paid on the par value of $100. Think of each unit of STRC as $100 but you can buy it for less sometimes, depending on market conditions. If you buy one share of STRC for $90, the effective yield is 12.78%.
2⃣ Pull-to-par capital gain incentives activate. Strong buy pressure emerges from investors who want the combination of elevated effective yield + capital gains as price moves back toward $100. The higher effective yield feeds the pull-to-par dynamic, which is further supported by the Bitcoin balance sheet continuing to strengthen. Buyers at a discount capture the recovery to par as capital gains.
The system self-corrects without anyone having to “defend” a peg (and again for the people in the back, there is no peg because it's not a stablecoin). STRC and similar instruments (such as SATA) rely on free-market incentives and long-term Bitcoin growth to restore equilibrium.
If liquidation events (like we saw last week) push STRC below par, it simply trades below par. STRC below par does not negatively affect the dividends; it only affects short-term capital that wants to exit immediately. If STRC required active defense, that would actually be a weakness. Structures that cannot bend under stress will break.
Now let's run some numbers to get an idea of the actual incentives for the market. As STRC is a perpetual, we'll go with a one-year time frame for recovery to par. And let's use the $90 IPO price.
Effective yield (what you actually earn in dividends relative to your $90 cost): 11.50/90 = 12.78%
Pull-to-par capital gain: (100-90)/90 = 11.11%
Total return on your $90 investment: (11.5 + 10)/90 = 23.89%
*Note this is a simple sum approximation. As dividends are paid semi-monthly throughout the year, the actual realized return is slightly higher if you factor in the timing of cash flows.
So this ~24% one-year total return profile (yield + cap gains) is exactly what makes buying below par attractive for total-return investors. It turns a temporary discount into a high single-year payoff (or shorter) while the self-repairing mechanism does its work.
To reiterate what I said previously, there's nothing for @saylor and @Strategy to do here. No need to raise the coupon, no need to increase the cash buffer, or anything else. They could do those things of course, but it’s not a necessity.
STRC is working perfectly as designed.
Strategy has increased its USD Reserve by $300 million to $1.4 billion and plans to continue replenishing it to support the credit quality of its Digital Credit securities. We also acquired 520 BTC for $35 million, increasing our $BTC Reserve to ₿847,363. $MSTR $STRC https://t.co/KeJ067fFWs